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  1. #12871
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    What!!!!sell...sell...sell..... anyway that was 2019...now is 2020..lol

  2. #12872
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    YES off course I forgot last year ............now

  3. #12873
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    Quote Originally Posted by dreamcatcher View Post
    Not that rosy .............NZ dairy farm sales plummet, prices weaken, despite firm outlook

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12295844
    The other Beagle will go into warp drive with the yapping when he reads that...YAWN, where's my ear muffs...
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #12874
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    The other Beagle will go into warp drive with the yapping when he reads that...YAWN, where's my ear muffs...
    I am not bringing up the plunging price of dairy farms in an attempt to start a run on Heartland shares. I am trying to show that this, combined with the Heartland Australia funding mismatch, poor cashflow (inherent in a growing Reverse Mortgage business) and the late business cycle's likely effect on second tier lenders are all reasons why Heartland should not trade a a premium to other banks. The big banks have their own problems, different to that of Heartland Bank. I think the whole sector should trade at a discount to the market - no exceptions!

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 08-01-2020 at 09:23 PM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  5. #12875
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    I am not bringing up the plunging price of dairy farms in an attempt to start a run on Heartland shares. I am trying to show that this, combined with the Heartland Australia funding mismatch, poor cashflow (inherent in a growing Reverse Mortgage business) and the late business cycle's likely effect on second tier lenders are all reasons why Heartland should not trade a a premium to other banks. The big banks have their own problems, different to that of Heartland Bank. I think the whole sector should trade at a discount to the market - no exceptions!

    SNOOPY
    It already is Snoopy and always does. Forward PE of HGH is about 13.5 compared to the median for the market of 19 and average by market cap of about 30. That's plenty enough of a discount in my opinion.

    If you want something new to worry about, start right here https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world...cid=spartandhp
    Last edited by Beagle; 08-01-2020 at 09:31 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #12876
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    BEN 13.0
    ANZ 11.5
    WBC 13.5
    NAB 12.0
    CBA 14.2
    BOQ 13.3
    HGH 13.6

    I am sure we're all well aware of the issues the Australians banks have with under capitalisation and other serious issues as a result of the Australian banking enquiry.

    HGH looks well priced to me compared to its peers, most of which have serious issues.
    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Forward PE of HGH is about 13.5 compared to the median for the market of 19 and average by market cap of about 30. That's plenty enough of a discount in my opinion.
    We are getting close to dancing on the head of a pin Beagle. I think we both agree that there is a least one opportunity to invest in the finance sector in today's market. We have both bought into HGH this year. Whether one should continue to accumulate at a PE of 12 (HGH at $1.64) or a PE of 13.5 (HGH at $1.85) comes down to what yield you would see as acceptable to offset the inherent risk of the investment.

    Given your raw PE figures for all Australasian banks, I would be inclined to accumulate ANZ and reduce HGH. Of course the problems at ANZ dwarf any problems at Heartland in dollar terms. But in proportion to the size of the bank I think the potential problems at Heartland are at least a match for those at ANZ. I don't see Heartland as any less risky than the other banks and I think it should be trading on a PE of 12. That is a fairly minor variation on your position in the big picture of things.

    SNOOPY
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  7. #12877
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    The two beagles are almost in agreement. It is now time to send you to the Middle East and see what you can do there.

  8. #12878
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brain View Post
    The two beagles are almost in agreement. It is now time to send you to the Middle East and see what you can do there.


    Snoopy - I investing in HGH primarily for yield and growth in yield in the years ahead. Its the only bank here that pays fully imputed dividends and I believe they will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

    Quite apart from the massive issues yet to be resolved with Australian banks https://www.marketscreener.com/news/...nks--29752485/
    including their substantial undercapitalisation of New Zealand operations, none of them provide meaningful imputation credits which means you're on the back foot (paws ) in regard to yield right from the get-go.

    I'm comfortable with 7.5% gross yield in this ultra low interest rate environment which assumes no increase in the dividend for FY20 and I'm also comfortable with a PE of 13.5
    Its difficult to find better value on the NZX than HGH at present.

    In terms of the difference in PE's between HGH and ANZ its probably worth noting that according to average forecasts of analysts on market screener they are forecasting average growth in eps for HGH over the next 3 years of ~ 5% per annum and for ANZ ~ 4% per annum.
    Last edited by Beagle; 09-01-2020 at 08:50 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #12879
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brain View Post
    The two beagles are almost in agreement. It is now time to send you to the Middle East and see what you can do there.
    Unleash the dogs of peace!

  10. #12880
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    We are getting close to dancing on the head of a pin Beagle. I think we both agree that there is a least one opportunity to invest in the finance sector in today's market. We have both bought into HGH this year. Whether one should continue to accumulate at a PE of 12 (HGH at $1.64) or a PE of 13.5 (HGH at $1.85) comes down to what yield you would see as acceptable to offset the inherent risk of the investment.

    Given your raw PE figures for all Australasian banks, I would be inclined to accumulate ANZ and reduce HGH. Of course the problems at ANZ dwarf any problems at Heartland in dollar terms. But in proportion to the size of the bank I think the potential problems at Heartland are at least a match for those at ANZ. I don't see Heartland as any less risky than the other banks and I think it should be trading on a PE of 12. That is a fairly minor variation on your position in the big picture of things.

    SNOOPY
    Interesting looking at charts. "A picture is worth a thousand words" , [or three thousand of Snoopy's..lol.]
    ANZ,WBC,and NAB are in strong down trends.
    CBA is tracking sideways.
    However HGH is in a very strong up trend.

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