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17-01-2020, 09:54 PM
#15401
Originally Posted by couta1
Will have almost zilch impact as A2 is still gaining market share of a reduced market which is still massive by any measure.
Plus the premium IF market is still growing, less babies = more money to spend on
the even more precious babies.
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18-01-2020, 11:44 AM
#15402
Article in todays N Z Herald, most of what I call a beat up but Monday's trading will be interesting, hmmm !
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18-01-2020, 12:46 PM
#15403
Originally Posted by whatsup
Article in todays N Z Herald, most of what I call a beat up but Monday's trading will be interesting, hmmm !
have you realize that everytime when A2 SP pushed about 2%/day up, then there is an article on NZ herald trying to depress it , IGNORE IT MATE.
All they do are trying to repeat things which everyone already knew over and over and over and over....again....
Last edited by tomm; 18-01-2020 at 12:49 PM.
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18-01-2020, 01:42 PM
#15404
Would a simple MA crossover trade strategy work?
Just for fun, would a simple Moving Average crossover trading strategy work? Using the 9 day and 22 day MA's, buy or sell 1000 shares at the closing price on the first day of a clear MA crossover.
Let's start with an arbitrary date that gives no obvious advantage, 21/2/2018 when the price spiked big time and buy the closing price of $11.75 (initial $11,750 trade). (we would've missed ~$2.50 gain from the previous day). What would happen by following this mechanical MA crossover trading strategy over the subsequent two years to-date?
https://invst.ly/pjifl here's the chart, price bars are not shown, only the MA's and closing buy / sell prices. ATM share price can 'gap up' or down, so the price at the MA crossover trigger can be a long way from the actual trade price.
Nevertheless, on 9 trades it would be 5 winners, 3 flat, 1 loser for a total +$6,120 gain. We'd currently be out waiting for another buy signal.
ATM Moving Average Crossover Trading Strategy |
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MA 9/22 |
- Buy or Sell the CLOSING price on the first day of a clear gap. |
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1,000 |
Shares traded |
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Date |
Buy |
Sell |
P&L |
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Buy |
Sell |
Trade P&L |
Cumulative P&L |
21-02-18 |
$ 11.75 |
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$ 11,750 |
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05-04-18 |
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$ 12.88 |
$1.13 |
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$ 12,880 |
$1,130 |
$1,130 |
10-05-18 |
$ 13.01 |
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$ 13,010 |
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21-05-18 |
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$ 11.04 |
($1.97) |
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$ 11,040 |
($1,970) |
($840) |
14-06-18 |
$ 11.50 |
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$ 11,500 |
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06-07-18 |
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$ 11.50 |
$0.00 |
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$ 11,500 |
$0 |
($840) |
17-08-18 |
$ 10.85 |
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$ 10,850 |
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18-09-18 |
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$ 12.14 |
$1.29 |
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$ 12,140 |
$1,290 |
$450 |
05-11-18 |
$ 10.15 |
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$ 10,150 |
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26-11-18 |
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$ 10.20 |
$0.05 |
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$ 10,200 |
$50 |
$500 |
29-11-18 |
$ 10.90 |
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$ 10,900 |
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19-03-19 |
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$ 13.70 |
$2.80 |
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$ 13,700 |
$2,800 |
$3,300 |
05-04-19 |
$ 14.55 |
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$ 14,550 |
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16-05-19 |
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$ 16.27 |
$1.72 |
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$ 16,270 |
$1,720 |
$5,020 |
04-07-19 |
$ 14.95 |
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$ 14,950 |
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12-08-19 |
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$ 16.04 |
$1.09 |
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$ 16,040 |
$1,090 |
$6,110 |
20-11-19 |
$ 14.67 |
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$ 14,670 |
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07-01-20 |
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$ 14.68 |
$0.01 |
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$ 14,680 |
$10 |
$6,120 |
Definitely not advice, this is purely an exercise just for fun.
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18-01-2020, 02:03 PM
#15405
Have you factored in $30+ for each buy and each sell and taxation (for trading) and how does that compare with more sophisticated strategies such as buy & hold?
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18-01-2020, 02:40 PM
#15406
Originally Posted by Snow Leopard
Have you factored in $30+ for each buy and each sell and taxation (for trading) and how does that compare with more sophisticated strategies such as buy & hold?
Trading - $3,920 net realised, inc trading fees & 33% tax
Buy'n hold - $3,440 gross unrealised inc trading fees (at 17/1 closing price)
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18-01-2020, 02:43 PM
#15407
I've gotta admit, I've been doing the Couta "thing" myself lately (buying and selling on the obvious ebbs and flows.) I didn't have the nerve at first, as I figured there would be that one day I missed out on a 15% jump. But after tracking the stock for years, evaluating the huge companies shorting and buying, and even understanding the obvious swings between the NZ and Australian markets, I jumped in. Have picked up like 2,000 shares.
But don't get me wrong. This **** makes me very nervous....
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18-01-2020, 10:45 PM
#15408
Originally Posted by whatsup
Article in todays N Z Herald, most of what I call a beat up but Monday's trading will be interesting, hmmm !
Was quite an insightful analysis. Holders should avial themselves of a copy of Saturday's Herald print edition. To me the guy seemed to really know his stuff and headwinds appear to be building.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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18-01-2020, 11:36 PM
#15409
Reminds me of this article posted almost 2 years ago. Everyone was sure Nestle was going to end A2's momentum but that never happened...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12023435
A2 in China is seen as a brand first and foremost and the science comes second. The first mover advantage is crucial as the competition is seen as copy cats and not the 'real a2'. The points raised about Chinese domestic formula growth are valid and something to keep an eye on but imo the thirst for foreign premium brands is not going anywhere quickly. A2's growth in China as reported at the AGM continues to impress, margins have been reconfirmed to be healthy and I see no need to panic until the sales numbers start to slow.
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18-01-2020, 11:43 PM
#15410
Looks like we are all in confirmation bias.
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