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Very interesting debate. Got to say I am siding with Blackpeter on this one. Looking at the trend in EBIT margin from 2016 to 2019...the trend is not your friend if you're a shareholder and looking at the above posts nobody has commented on this clear and worrisome trend. Slice another 3-4% off that EBIT margin with decent competition and if losses continue in Australia as I believe they will, my instinct says this grinds its way onward with the downtrend continuing.
Looking at the chart gives not technical analysis encouragement whatsoever. Management have a long track record of talking a big game and failing and their credibility doesn't wash with me, frankly their credibility is in tatters. They talk that they can turn Australia around and I don't think they will.
PE's are meaningless if the E part is a complete unknown. If there was a very clear buy signal such as a break up through the 100 day MA support line, (if this ever happens), I'd think this might be a good de-risked time to take a punt.
Last edited by Beagle; 18-01-2020 at 07:20 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Member
 Originally Posted by Beagle
Very interesting debate. Got to say I am siding with Blackpeter on this one. Looking at the trend in EBIT margin from 2016 to 2019...the trend is not your friend if you're a shareholder and looking at the above posts nobody has commented on this clear and worrisome trend. Slice another 3-4% off that EBIT margin with decent competition and if losses continue in Australia as I believe they will, my instinct says this grinds its way onward with the downtrend continuing.
Looking at the chart gives not technical analysis encouragement whatsoever. Management have a long track record of talking a big game and failing and their credibility doesn't wash with me, frankly their credibility is in tatters. They talk that they can turn Australia around and I don't think they will.
PE's are meaningless if the E part is a complete unknown. If there was a very clear buy signal such as a break up through the 100 day MA support line, (if this ever happens), I'd think this might be a good de-risked time to take a punt.
Beagle, you should see EBIT margin has recovered in 2019 from low in 2018. And just let you know MPG NZ EBIT margin has been further recovered to 15.73% at 1H 2020.
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Originally Posted by Lease
Beagle, you should see EBIT margin has recovered in 2019 from low in 2018. And just let you know MPG NZ EBIT margin has been further recovered to 15.73% at 1H 2020.
...and 15% ebit Margin is world class. Many similar industries around the world would be over the moon if they achieved this margin
NZ operations are not as useless / hopeless / broken / munted as most make out
Pity the money men stuffed it and no wonder the market perception of metro is what is (as per baabaa’s chart)
Takes a lot to reverse that sentiment ...and not just good financials.
Last edited by winner69; 18-01-2020 at 08:05 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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Member
Originally Posted by winner69
...and 15% ebit Margin is world class. Many similar industries around the world would be over the moon if they achieved this margin
NZ operations are not as useless / hopeless / broken / munted as most make out
Pity the money men stuffed it and no wonder the market perception of metro is what is (as per baabaa’s chart)
Takes a lot to reverse that sentiment ...and not just good financials.
Yes, Winner69, market sentiment is so negative but imo it is overreacted on MPG's Aussie operation and competition in NZ. I'm in and let's see how it will go.
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Originally Posted by Beagle
Looking at the chart gives not technical analysis encouragement whatsoever. ... If there was a very clear buy signal such as a break up through the 100 day MA support line, (if this ever happens), I'd think this might be a good de-risked time to take a punt.
Thats putting it politely, the chart is a disaster. For three years this keeps finding new lows. This is a monthly chart, the moving average lines are 4 month and 10 month (roughly same as 200 daily moving average). It will be intriguing to see whether the brave value investors are correct picking the low price for entry/top-up or whether the chart ends up showing a further decline into oblivion.
Have a look and see if you'd buy into this right now 
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Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
Thats putting it politely, the chart is a disaster. For three years this keeps finding new lows. This is a monthly chart, the moving average lines are 4 month and 10 month (roughly same as 200 daily moving average). It will be intriguing to see whether the brave value investors are correct picking the low price for entry/top-up or whether the chart ends up showing a further decline into oblivion.
Have a look and see if you'd buy into this right now
There's no two ways about it Baa Baa, that is an exceptionally ugly chart !
Long, hard earned experience has taught me never to buy stocks with charts like that. You almost always lose.
Last edited by Beagle; 18-01-2020 at 10:38 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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