AIR - Air NZ.

[bull....]

Shareholders rejoice at the rumour AIR call centre going to Phillipines to save money

Customers probably lament the move fearing worse service

must be why the shares were up and the fact domestic fares rising will insulate them from any downturn in international and those dividend hunters who dont worry about anything external only care that the div yield is so high

[Beagle]

I agree with you.

Luxon added so very little to Air NZ - and he never hid his self proclaimed 'socially conservative' views from the comapny and he did in fact allow them to blur his decision making. He was solely responsible for the cessation of the popular PINK Flight to Sydney. It's not my cup of tea but it MADE MONEY and garnered a truckload of free press every year.

Luxon just proves that a well spoken white man in suit will suck every schmuk in.

Fyfe did the hard yards and created a real drive forward engaged workforce - all Luxon did was dismantle it and run the business down to deliver maximum shareholder return in the short term all the while delivering progressively lower and lower profits.

Dont overlook that at the same time the board upped the short term incentive plan - largely based on share price numbers the business was having some $50 gutted from it. It was not overly bloated and all that seemed to happen was the same old story. The 10 workers in a department were told they were now 6 and to just deal with it.

Don't forget that under this caring Christians' watch full time low paying jobs like aircraft loaders and airport check in people suddenly became part time full time jobs - still low paid only just now the day was split into 2 with an idle 3 -4 hours in between shifts. It goes on and on.

Luxon was a smooth talking well presented man of little substance in my view (I have met him many times and know his reasonably well), he bolted when Key assured him now was the time to jump into the NATS.

If you are a hard right religious type then this guy is your man. Pity the rest of us.

I have way better feeling for Foran as a leader - early indications bode well for his people skills, time will tell.

Most people I know who work for AIR rated Chris Luxon very well and are sad he's gone. Greg Foran with his background is going to be ruthless in cutting costs and will need to be. I am sick and tired of other companies pandering and encouraging all things LGTBQ so good on him for cancelling the pink flights.

Couple of reports out overnight I have seen suggest air travel within the Asia Pacific region previously forecast to grow at 4.5% in 2020 could contract by as much as 8% this year and that's just based on known information about the virus at this time.

If this becomes a worldwide pandemic, look out, demand for air travel will fall off the face of a cliff like nothing anyone has ever seen before. You will see what cost cutting really feels like then...for example Cathay Pacific have asked many of their workers to take unpaid leave until June, (which could easily be restated to a later month). Good luck to those that don't have a decent nest egg for a rainy day.

Foran will do whatever needs to be done to ensure the survival of the airline and you'll probably look back and think Chris Luxon was a kind caring person after all...that's my prediction. AIR is a clear SELL in my view with known risks. Fair value is where the shares are now, (before there was any virus risk at all) and nothing whatsoever has come off to account for known virus risks...I leave it to others to judge whether that's logical or not.

[winner69]

Sydney Customs hall quiet as

Pretty revealing image for those who know what Sydney is like.

https://twitter.com/chaudave/status/...704451072?s=21

[Biscuit]

... I am sick and tired of other companies pandering and encouraging all things LGTBQ so good on him for cancelling the pink flights....

From a business perspective, can be a profitable segment of the market to cultivate. From a social perspective, it is positive to support a segment of society that has suffered discrimination.

[winner69]

Thanks for the trade idea Beagle
i got a cheeky little short in @$2.835 Stop just over $3, with target $2.55
let’s see how it goes

I reckon you’ll be stopped out in next week or so

[macduffy]

It's called "positive discrimination", biscuit. Use with discretion!

[peat]

I reckon you’ll be stopped out in next week or so

yes it hasn't dropped significantly at any point yet. but rises have been quashed as well.

[Lorne Ranger]

It's called "positive discrimination", biscuit. Use with discretion!

As opposed to the "negative discrimination" this group has encountered for the past couple of thousand years at least. Seems reasonable to me. There's a fair way to go yet perhaps to make amends for that - a pink flight would not have hurt anyone.

[Beagle]

For me Air NZ remains a hold.

Coronavirus won’t be here long term. Acknowledge will impact short term results.
High barriers to entry and strong market share in profitable domestic travel.
Strong brand underpinned by Airpoints loyalty programme and Koru lounges (and average at best competition domestically).
International competitors feed Air NZ profitable domestic network.
Expect long term trend of low single digit revenue growth to resume post Coronavirus.
Low P/E and high dividend yield which looks sustainable long term.
New CEO has good credentials.
Will continue to hold long term.

Good luck mate. This news out yesterday (one of the first bits of news out of the aviation industry that endeavours to quantify the impact of this virus), gives an interesting insight into how difficult this storm might be to navigate. https://ph.news.yahoo.com/vietnam-ai...054307063.html

I am sure AIR will update shareholders how their forward bookings are looking with their half year result due later this month and I expect that they will clearly articulate a serious decline in people's forward intentions arounds bookings. I expect a downgrade to 2020 guidance later this month with the half year result and at least one more, probably two more downgrades before June 2020. Shareholders might also like to brace for a dividend cut as it would appear to be prudent to conserve cash at this time.

I wouldn't presently even pay $2.50 per share. I don't want to be a prophet of doom because I like the company but the fact is AIR is directly in the path of this approaching storm and there's nowhere to hide. Depending on the severity of its effects it could get extremely ugly.

[macduffy]

Yes, a sobering bit of news from Vietnam Air. Note, however, that China accounts for a third of Vietnam's tourists.