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16-02-2020, 09:06 PM
#3671
Late in giving us a forecast and trading update for the first half. Probably choosing their words for the narrative very carefully this weekend and we'll get that update tomorrow morning. Very good operators HLG but headwinds from Australian drought, then bushfires, now this new virus and possible supply chain issues as well as currency a bit softer and to cap it all off a huge increase in the minimum wage just around the corner on 1 April 2020, certainly makes life challenging for them.
Disc: I have reduced but still have a modest holding.
Last edited by Beagle; 16-02-2020 at 09:09 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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16-02-2020, 09:20 PM
#3672
Originally Posted by Beagle
Late in giving us a forecast and trading update for the first half. Probably choosing their words for the narrative very carefully this weekend and we'll get that update tomorrow morning. Very good operators HLG but headwinds from Australian drought, then bushfires, now this new virus and possible supply chain issues as well as currency a bit softer and to cap it all off a huge increase in the minimum wage just around the corner on 1 April 2020, certainly makes life challenging for them.
Disc: I have reduced but still have a modest holding.
..
Jeez ......more headwinds than Synlait ....but probably not as many as AIR
PANIC tomorrow or whenever and BP will be proved right ...it is a cyclical after all.
Fy19 worried me in that Glassons AU didn't increase profit even though things were in their favour ....this year headwinds ...hmmm
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16-02-2020, 09:33 PM
#3673
No panic mate. Just a very good company with excellent management, with no debt and class leading stock turn detailing how they are going to deal with challenges.
I would think the vast majority of their stock procurement is from Bangladesh so supply chain issues will be quite modest. Australian drought and bushfire situation has considerably improved in very recent times, however the long term prognosis could be considered to be diminished. https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world...cid=spartanntp Climate change to make Australia summers a season full or dread ?
Interestingly for climate change deniers, not just the drought in Australia, today the Auckland region had its 41st day of drought conditions, the longest ever on record.
I doubt HLG will have any difficulty selling out this summers stock !
That said, Synlait and AIR's problems are in a completely different league, in my opinion.
Last edited by Beagle; 16-02-2020 at 10:14 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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17-02-2020, 09:01 AM
#3674
Hey beagle ...no announcement from HLG as usual that their ‘balance sheet remains strong’
What’s up
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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17-02-2020, 09:32 AM
#3675
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348525
Not great... profit going backwards and future uncertain
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17-02-2020, 09:38 AM
#3676
Member
Originally Posted by trader_jackson
The only companies with a certain future are in liquidation
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17-02-2020, 09:39 AM
#3677
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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17-02-2020, 09:45 AM
#3678
Originally Posted by freddagg
The only companies with a certain future are in liquidation
Classic!
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17-02-2020, 09:49 AM
#3679
Phew, I was getting worried but now relieved I know that “The balance sheet for the Group remains strong”
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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17-02-2020, 09:51 AM
#3680
Adjusting for IFRS16 on leasing, profit is unchanged on turnover up 5.7%, (up 6.7%) as at the trading update at the annual meeting in December 2019.
I think in the context of the weaker currency and unprecedented drought and bushfires in Australia the sales and profit result is more than satisfactory.
Balance sheet remains strong as usual.
Residual concerns.
1. Supply chain issues. Its a shame the company did not provide more colour around this as the market will speculate as to the seriousness or otherwise of that issue.
2. Will people shop as much if the virus spreads, (acknowledge they have an excellent online platform but a lot of people like to try clothes on before they buy them)
3. Significant increase in minimum wage in N.Z. with effect from 1 April 2020.
Thoughts:-
The market as a whole, (and certainly not just limited to the NZX) appears almost unfazed by the virus). Rightly or wrongly in the context of how the markets themselves are reacting, (or more correctly not reacting), then the share price seems fair and reasonable. On the other hand if this virus gets out of control its clear the company will be affected, but then so too will many other companies on the NZX that haven't adjusted downwards to reflect this actual or perceived new risk.
For me, I am pleased I have been proactive and taken some money off the table. Its remains a very well managed company that's trading well in challenging conditions.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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