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Originally Posted by winner69
Baked beans, pasta, tomato sauce and loo paper
You forgot the Tim Tams!
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Originally Posted by Beagle
Making a call now is like saying I am going shopping next week at Countdown and Pak and Save and drawing up my shopping list now without knowing what's going to be on half price special.
I like to make my list anyway and then check the mailer for the specials-anything not urgent on the list can wait another week, because sooner or later it will be on special...…..
I have quite a few names written down to watch, but SKC is near the top. It is the first stock I sold when things started to look a little serious and glad I did.
A lot of headwinds for it and I don't think it will be a bargain this week, but at some stage it should be a good buy again. Treated me well in the past.
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Personally had just planned to buy back all my sold stocks at some point, but at this rate will have plenty left over.
It is probably too soon now,but like Grimy said it is good to have a list with price targets etc, as it helps to avoid those impulse (it looks cheap!!) buys.
Will Probably let the charts decide when the buys occur, TA normally comes into its own in times like this
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Originally Posted by ratkin
Personally had just planned to buy back all my sold stocks at some point, but at this rate will have plenty left over.
It is probably too soon now,but like Grimy said it is good to have a list with price targets etc, as it helps to avoid those impulse (it looks cheap!!) buys.
Will Probably let the charts decide when the buys occur, TA normally comes into its own in times like this
Agree 100%. I just throw any FA out the window, its almost completely useless as in a real bear market one has no idea what the E is going to be. The risk with FA is one can be sorely tempted to get back in because it looks so cheap it must be a good buy...and then the bear just mauls you more and then some more for good measure.
My tactic will be for the market to tell me when my former stocks have been de-risked properly when they're in a new uptrend, whenever that might be and it might not be for quite some time, possibly not even till late 2021 or even 2022 and I've got to learn to be okay with that. (Hopefully this old dog can learn a new trick)
Buying a half sized position in ABC or XYZ when it breaks back up through the 30 day MA and the other half on a break back up through the 100 day MA to confirm the uptrend is going to be my "go too" TA methodology. Not sure what I am going to do with all my spare time not needing to bother with fundamental analysis for a while...I better get a new hobby lol
Last edited by Beagle; 01-03-2020 at 05:53 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Originally Posted by Beagle
Agree 100%. I just throw any FA out the window, its almost completely useless as in a real bear market one has no idea what the E is going to be. The risk with FA is one can be sorely tempted to get back in because it looks so cheap it must be a good buy...and then the bear just mauls you more and then some more for good measure....l
It does seem there is likely to be a constant dripping each day of bad stories as the virus spreads. So I think there will be a real chance of a miasma descending on the market with over-compensation for expected risks. I am not sure at this stage what to put on my watch list.
Last edited by Bjauck; 01-03-2020 at 06:07 PM.
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Originally Posted by ratkin
Personally had just planned to buy back all my sold stocks at some point
Pretty much what I'm looking at doing.
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What a good idea for a thread, because it's something that's on all our minds.
One approach might be to list what's not on your list. Of course, it's all a matter of timing. Picking the lows and buying at the latest time before it's likely top stat going up.
I think SUM could be good after 9(?) months. I can't help wondering if they've suggested zero growth to emphasize the need to reneg deals with the govt... and rightly so.
ATM are expecting good things. Could be +50% if you pick the low correctly.
AIA and AIR have taken a pounding as they've been in the spotlight. Obvious future target.
Ports will be a nice item to pick up cheaply, as they're usually expensive.
MEL will be an interesting one to watch. A quick purchase post positive news on tiwai will do well, or picking the bottom of the oversell on negative news could be good if it drops enough to fairly represent a good PE.
M7T over on the ASX is looking interesting.
What's not on my shopping list, which usually is: SCL, SEK and a few others inc
FPH, which i have as too expensive. More than usual. While they might do well in the coming year, i expect the following year will dip. The coming year is already priced in, imo.
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Member
Picking up some soggy gutter butts with maybe a puff or two left
Cautiously buying in order of conviction:
NZR
TPW
MPG
TWR
STU
SKT
NZME
Some pretty ugly names in there but I imagine most will be around in a few years and should be worth more than they are priced at the moment.
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Originally Posted by Lewylewylewy
What a good idea for a thread, because it's something that's on all our minds.
One approach might be to list what's not on your list. Of course, it's all a matter of timing. Picking the lows and buying at the latest time before it's likely top stat going up.
I think SUM could be good after 9(?) months. I can't help wondering if they've suggested zero growth to emphasize the need to reneg deals with the govt... and rightly so.
ATM are expecting good things. Could be +50% if you pick the low correctly.
AIA and AIR have taken a pounding as they've been in the spotlight. Obvious future target.
Ports will be a nice item to pick up cheaply, as they're usually expensive.
MEL will be an interesting one to watch. A quick purchase post positive news on tiwai will do well, or picking the bottom of the oversell on negative news could be good if it drops enough to fairly represent a good PE.
M7T over on the ASX is looking interesting.
What's not on my shopping list, which usually is: SCL, SEK and a few others inc
FPH, which i have as too expensive. More than usual. While they might do well in the coming year, i expect the following year will dip. The coming year is already priced in, imo.
Similar to my strategy.
Careful choice and timing.Being bold when other are fearful . and
Not buying at the moment-I am very wary of catching falling knives and will take my last NZX order off today-its a stock which I had reasoned will have cheaper costs because of covid-19 but as beagle says fundamentals do not matter too much-at least until people start buying.
Would also like to buy back into MEL and possibly AIR.
FPH will be watched closely.CDC have just announced some small changes in causes mortality.Deaths due to influenza/pneumonia are increasing.Small increase in life expectancy.Women will live 5 years longer than men-growing market for FPH and trusted products.
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Great article from Mr. Buffett. Buying good companies is always a good idea. Buying ATM, Mainfreight, and other solid companies like that right now. It's like finding a gem in the discount rack at the store. These stocks will UNDOUBTEDLY return to their former highs. It doesn't have to be today or even this year. Personally I'm willing to wait.
https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/warren-buffett-stock-market-advice-coronavirus-value-investing.html
"People would be better off if they say, 'I bought a business today,' not 'a stock today,' because that gives you a different perspective," he explained. "Presumably if you buy a farm, if you buy an apartment house, if you buy a business you're going to own for 10 or 20 or 30 years, then the real question is: Has the 10-year or 20-year outlook for American business changed in the last 24 hours or 48 hours? You don't buy or sell your business based on today's headlines."
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