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11-03-2020, 10:08 AM
#15721
Air up almost 8%. Ouch to the shorters
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11-03-2020, 10:13 AM
#15722
Originally Posted by biker
Air up almost 8%. Ouch to the shorters
Not at all...I am so far in the money I can very easily absorb this irrational temporary bounce.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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11-03-2020, 10:21 AM
#15723
I was on the Sharesies FB page and there is unbridled buy-the-dip enthusiasm for AIR - heart leading the brain I fear - one fellow even asked for a couple weeks holiday pay in advance to invest. Heaven forbid they use any sort of leverage; re-mortgage for shares anyone? Good luck them all. Most of these guys have only been on the game for a couple months and have never experienced any sort of real correction
Last edited by causecelebre; 11-03-2020 at 10:22 AM.
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11-03-2020, 11:37 AM
#15724
Originally Posted by Beagle
Not at all...I am so far in the money I can very easily absorb this irrational temporary bounce.
yeh reinstigating short position !
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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11-03-2020, 11:40 AM
#15725
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11-03-2020, 11:42 AM
#15726
Originally Posted by Mogul
No stopping a beagle when on the scent. Long may you keep up the good work.
Thanks mate, I always enjoy your well thought out posts too !
Originally Posted by whome
Good on you Beagle. Keep barking at full volume with reasoned logic. I like it. Sure is better information than the emotion driven media. If so called investors cannot understand ‘Act, don’t just react’ then ..? .Disclos. 80% cash since 20 Feb and looking fwd to some ‘investment’ opportunities that TA should reveal in time be it 1 mth, 3 mths or 6 mths.
Thanks, Same for you mate, I just wish you had more time to post. (I know you're a very hard working and very busy man).
Originally Posted by peat
yeh reinstigating short position !
Welcome back to the dark side
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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11-03-2020, 11:47 AM
#15727
Very brave to buy back into air new Zealand when the fallout looks to continue for some time, and the effect on the company could be far reaching. This is one company where the panic selling was justified.
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11-03-2020, 11:52 AM
#15728
Originally Posted by bottomfeeder
Very brave to buy back into air new Zealand when the fallout looks to continue for some time, and the effect on the company could be far reaching. This is one company where the panic selling was justified.
Only in your opinion of course
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11-03-2020, 12:19 PM
#15729
Of course, my opinion. But something for everyone to consider. Nothing has changed to the company for the better. The company itself has forward planned its reduced flights up to September. Europe has so many borders, the virus will be difficult to contain. So it would appear travel restrictions for travellers coming from overseas hasn't even begun to be extended. This is one company that unfortunately is going nowhere fast. I know its hard to accept when you are invested, I've been there with other companies in the past. But just where is the good news.
Last edited by bottomfeeder; 11-03-2020 at 12:42 PM.
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11-03-2020, 12:26 PM
#15730
Originally Posted by bottomfeeder
Of course, my opinion. But something for everyone to consider. Nothing has changed to the company for the better. The company itself has forward planned its reduced flights up to September. Europe has do many borders, the virus will be difficult to contain. So it would appear travel restrictions for travellers coming from overseas hasn't even begun to be extended. This is one company that unfortunately is going nowhere fast. I know its hard to accept when you are invested, I've been there with other companies in the past. But just where is the good news.
I could offer a totally different picture if you like. Whether I believe it or not does not matter. The virus will be about a half year blip. So AIR profit will be devastated for this half year period. However some competition is going to fail, meaning larger market share for AIR post this half year period. Air will also profit from the oil price plunge when they forward risk their 2021/22 fuel futures. Since the discount rate is currently so low, the DCF valuation of Air will not be adversely impacted by negative half year earnings, let alone negative FY earnings, if you believe AIR has a future post 2021.
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