Shopping list - Best companies to snap up

[youngatheart]

OCA at - 40% to its NTA seems a crazy overreaction compared to the other retirement stocks. If the retirement sector chiefs planned meeting tomorrow goes well it could instil a bit of confidence and cause a nudge upwards...

[ratkin]

Dipped my toes in this morning with FPH at 25.00 decided mentally easier to buy strength than weakness. As long as they can keep their factories going they look mint

[oldtech]

Okay so here is my Christmas list assuming a deep bear market all year and my indicative target prices
AIR 75 cents (gosh you say, it couldn't happen, oh yes it can, history suggests this is a pure cyclical and has been there before more than once)
ATM $8 (has been there before, massive hype built into the current stretched PE)
ARG $1 (still trading at a solid premium to NTA, looking for a 20 - 25% discount to NTA)
ARV $1 (had a huge run and a large retracement is quite possible)
BRM 35 cents (would buy all day long if this got down there)
GNE $2 (ditto above)
GMT $1.40 (As for ARG I would want a 20-25% discount to NTA)
HGH $1 (Things get ugly for Bank's in a bear market - I'd need to be snooping, (you see what I did there Snoopy) around there to think I'd got a real bargain)
HLG $2.70 (nothing sweeter than a repeater), bought up large last time it was there a few years ago.
KFL $1 (Whole market to come back at least 30-40% and quite possibly more)
MEL $3 (Buy all day at that price).
MLN 60 cents (40% retracement in US markets would be nice, they're certainly not on as stretched metrics as the NZX, nowhere near)
OCA 80 cents (20% discount to NTA)
RYM $7 (No real case for them being on such a massive PE premium to the rest of the sector...needs a real bashing for me to be interested)
SUM $4 (Julian is now on my naughty list so I'll need a 20% discount to NTA)
MET $3.50 (inept management and imminent takeover failure, needs to be half NTA to get me interested)
THL 90 cents. (Serious trouble here but a massive restructuring and selldown of the fleet might see them escape chapter 11 in the USA and administration here provided they get some Govt support like AIR desperately need)
Caveat, anything bought would have to have shown some (at least modest TA buy signal) before I would dip my paws in the water.

First and foremost, I continue to bear your caveat in mind. Having said that, a couple of thoughts and observations ...

AIR 75 cents
With everything that's gone on in the past few days, would you still? FWIW, I would want an awful lot more than just a modest TA signal before I took what I see now as a big risk.

ARG $1
$1.02 at the moment ...

BRM 35 cents
10 cents to go!

HGH $1
Dipped very close to it earlier today ($1.01)

OCA 80 cents
61 cents now, I don't know about you but I'm sitting firmly on my hands at the moment with this and all retirement stocks currently.

THL 90 cents
Nope, I got burnt by this last time around, no way would I touch this with a barge pole.

[Beagle]

First and foremost, I continue to bear your caveat in mind. Having said that, a couple of thoughts and observations ...

AIR 75 cents
With everything that's gone on in the past few days, would you still? FWIW, I would want an awful lot more than just a modest TA signal before I took what I see now as a big risk.

ARG $1
$1.02 at the moment ...

BRM 35 cents
10 cents to go!

HGH $1
Dipped very close to it earlier today ($1.01)

OCA 80 cents
61 cents now, I don't know about you but I'm sitting firmly on my hands at the moment with this and all retirement stocks currently.

THL 90 cents
Nope, I got burnt by this last time around, no way would I touch this with a barge pole.

Gidday mate, thanks for revisiting this, first posted 2 March. Updated thoughts since then.

TA - My "go too" technical analysis indicator will be a confirmed three day break above the 30 day moving average. Using this will mean I am buying into the real possibility of a new uptrend and protect me from the worst of the downside risk, if we are headed for an extremely serious GFC Mk2.

AIR - Massive changes to the network since I posted that on 2 March. Revised business model simply won't work. Without major Govt support this virus is an existential event for AIR. A loan facility from the Govt will only delay the inevitable. This company would appear to "eat" capital at something over $5m per day with its revised business structure. That only leads to one thing.

ARG - I need to rethink this and look at their retail exposure. I am surprised it has come down so quick...the market is telling me something and I need to listen.

BRM - This is getting interesting. Aussie market has been absolutely smashed. Watching this one with great interest.

HGH - Lets wait and see where the bottom is with that TA process described above.

OCA - As above...this could get extremely ugly if the virus gets into a number of retirement villages - massive effect on demand going forward. TA very much to the fore here, FA is almost useless.

THL - Big changes to border controls both in the US and N.Z. leave this company very vulnerable with its very high debt level's. Rob Campbell lost his mojo ? I think its now too vulnerable for me to have a punt.

SUM - My updated view on this is now $3.50, see SUM thread.

KPG - Watching this one, crikey the carnage is ugly !

ARV getting close to $1. Interested in this one. T.J. has a point, this company has been travelling quite well. Tristan Saunders their marketing manager is ex SUM from several years ago when SUM's units were selling very well. He's a very smart guy.

[oldtech]

Gidday mate, thanks for revisiting this, first posted 2 March. Updated thoughts since then.

TA - My "go too" technical analysis indicator will be a confirmed three day break above the 30 day moving average. Using this will mean I am buying into the real possibility of a new uptrend and protect me from the worst of the downside risk, if we are headed for an extremely serious GFC Mk2.

AIR - Massive changes to the network since I posted that on 2 March. Revised business model simply won't work. Without major Govt support this virus is an existential event for AIR. A loan facility from the Govt will only delay the inevitable. This company would appear to "eat" capital at something over $5m per day with its revised business structure. That only leads to one thing.

ARG - I need to rethink this and look at their retail exposure. I am surprised it has come down so quick...the market is telling me something and I need to listen.

BRM - This is getting interesting. Aussie market has been absolutely smashed. Watching this one with great interest.

HGH - Lets wait and see where the bottom is with that TA process described above.

OCA - As above...this could get extremely ugly if the virus gets into a number of retirement villages - massive effect on demand going forward. TA very much to the fore here, FA is almost useless.

THL - Big changes to border controls both in the US and N.Z. leave this company very vulnerable with its very high debt level's. Rob Campbell lost his mojo ? I think its now too vulnerable for me to have a punt.

SUM - My updated view on this is now $3.50, see SUM thread.

KPG - Watching this one, crikey the carnage is ugly !

ARV getting close to $1. Interested in this one. T.J. has a point, this company has been travelling quite well. Tristan Saunders their marketing manager is ex SUM from several years ago when SUM's units were selling very well. He's a very smart guy.

Thanks Beagle. FWIW, the companies I am keeping an eye on at the moment include ARG and HGH.

ARG are more heavily weighted to office space (40%) and industrial (47%) than retail (13%), but even office space could be perceived as more risky these days. A Weighted Average Lease Term (“WALT”) of 6.0 years, but how much does that count for in current circumstances? (Refer to https://www.argosy.co.nz/investor-ce...folio-metrics/)

HGH - agree with your sentiment, I keep telling myself to resist the urge to jump in boots and all, have to wait for TA to provide good guidance.

[oldtech]

ARG - I need to rethink this and look at their retail exposure. I am surprised it has come down so quick...the market is telling me something and I need to listen

Interesting. I had a look at some other companies after that comment, and not sure that ARG has dropped that much more in comparison? One of the bigger drops in this sector, certainly, but by no means the biggest.

A month ago, ARG was trading at $1.44 - the new low hit today of $0.99 represents a drop of 31%.

Looking at some other companies a month ago, and lowest price today:

VHP - was trading at $2.88 a month ago, today's low $2.07 = 28% drop
KPG - was trading at $1.55 a month ago, today's low $0.99 = 36% drop
GMT - was trading at $2.31 a month ago, today's low $1.88 = 19% drop
PFI - was trading at $2.49 a month ago, today's low $1.91 = 23% drop
PCT - was trading at $1.87 a month ago, today's low $1.47 = 21% drop

So to my eye, it's certainly a substantial drop, but do you think it's that much out of line with other comparable companies?

[kiora]

If you follow the medical people advising the Government and MOH, we are months away from any form of clarity. Time for investors to think it through..anything before is a blind gamble.

The share markets typically look 6 months ahead

[klid]

KPG was looking great at under a dollar - now about even for the day at 1.14.

[Beagle]

Interesting. I had a look at some other companies after that comment, and not sure that ARG has dropped that much more in comparison? One of the bigger drops in this sector, certainly, but by no means the biggest.

A month ago, ARG was trading at $1.44 - the new low hit today of $0.99 represents a drop of 31%.

Looking at some other companies a month ago, and lowest price today:

VHP - was trading at $2.88 a month ago, today's low $2.07 = 28% drop
KPG - was trading at $1.55 a month ago, today's low $0.99 = 36% drop
GMT - was trading at $2.31 a month ago, today's low $1.88 = 19% drop
PFI - was trading at $2.49 a month ago, today's low $1.91 = 23% drop
PCT - was trading at $1.87 a month ago, today's low $1.47 = 21% drop

So to my eye, it's certainly a substantial drop, but do you think it's that much out of line with other comparable companies?

Thanks for that analysis. Not much out of line with the market drop as a whole either. That's the problem with bear markets isn't it ! You think you're getting a bargain when you aren't really.

[Entrep]

HGH is up about 17% from its low of the day!