OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[ratkin]

I think you guys have gone too early, there is an astounding amount of bad news out there today, and exponential growth of the virus in US etc means in another Two weeks fear factor will be maxed out.

[fish]

when the ventilators are all used up, Cindy cant help.
discisions will / are being made to not do Cpr on Covid patients due to the risk of cross contamination to medical / nursing staff. Gota save the workers .....

Yoda you are behind the times.
No medically trained staff would in their right mind do CPR on a Covid patient in NZ.It sounds as if it was done on Dr L Wenliang(?spelling)-unsuccessful as every case most likely would be .
Ventilation for a severely hypoxic covid-19 pneumonia initiated early can be lifesaving and will happen for younger patients.Far less likely to be successful for old patients-those over 80 say-and most of those would be happy to not be put on ventilators and instead die peacefully.
However NZ approach has changed since last saturday.
We have a good chance of containing this disease.
Countries which have not-eg US and Italy have large numbers of rest home dead.
We can prevent most of these deaths.
For the first time in my 40 years as a GP I have seen a major change in attitudes to respiratory disease-my older patients tell me of the measures taken to Isolate themselves from Grandchildren etc .Resthomes are restricting visitors .Sick staff are told not too come in.
So far we have no knowledge of community spread-it could be happening in isolated pockets that we should be able to quarantine.

I do not believe the value of resthomes has halved in one month.
I do believe dividends will be paid.
I accept any investment is risky but long-term we need resthomes and some people will be safer in resthomes.Our aging population will keep increasing.
I buy for the long-term and accept the sp may fall more-who really knows-I do not care and might buy more if it drops!

[trackers]

I think you guys have gone too early, there is an astounding amount of bad news out there today, and exponential growth of the virus in US etc means in another Two weeks fear factor will be maxed out.

I agree, but I think people miss that there’s two parts to this..: the first is the direct impact from the virus, which will sooner or later be contained, especially here. The second is the impact from the panic: businesses fully shutting down, massive unemployment as a result (I’ve already seen some), dire reduction in our biggest sector (tourism). Those things will cause a (at least) medium term burn on this countries wealth and rest home wise I think the biggest impact is families not being able to afford the extra cost (vs staying in their homes)

[BlackPeter]

when the ventilators are all used up, Cindy cant help.
discisions will / are being made to not do Cpr on Covid patients due to the risk of cross contamination to medical / nursing staff. Gota save the workers .....

Any chance the fear mongers could please go back to their fear mongering threads (anything with Coronavirus in the header) and play with themselves instead of infecting the whole forum? This B/S is neither useful nor sensical.

Elderlies will be much safer in closed communities than if they live outside of retirement communities. No need for them to go shopping, the nurse will visit them instead of them going to the medical center and getting coughed on by a myriad of potentially sick people.

Will the virus find its way into some of the retirement homes? Probably yes - I guess the staff still interacts with the rest of the fear monger infected world. In that case care in the rest homes will be better as well (well, there will be care) than for elderlies living on their own ... and despite all the brain dead fear mongering posts here as well as anywhere else ... the death rate is not that bad.

Diamond Princess: 3700 people (crew and passengers), most of the passengers well beyond the 65; untrained and sick crew spreading the virus to everybody on board, however still - only 696 on board testing positive (of them 410 asymptomatic) and seven people died. This is a infection rate of 19%, patients with symptoms of 8% and a mortality rate of 0.2% ... given the circumstances not worse than a bad flu, and this basically in a worst case rest home environment (guaranteed supply of virus through sick crew and containment).

If you transfer this experience to some normal retirement village with healthy and well trained staff and more space - what exactly do you think will happen? 0.1% dying? Well, this is not even a statistical blib given that in a normal rest home 12% of the residents die every year (base on an in average 8 year occupancy).

Dumb scare mongering at its worst ...

[dobby41]

Elderlies will be much safer in closed communities than if they live outside of retirement communities. No need for them to go shopping, the nurse will visit them instead of them going to the medical center and getting coughed on by a myriad of potentially sick people.

Unfortunately the likes of Oceania consist of more than care.
The villa people still have to shop.
In most cases the nurse looks after the care people not the villa people.
I agree that they will still be better off in a village where they have better protocols for dealing with this.

[skid]

I never expected it to drop this much-nor could I sit on my hands too long-so bought a lot today.
It does not look like Jacinda is going to let our elderly die unlike some other countries.
We know know enough about corvid-19 to stamp it out.
So far we have been a very lucky country and have now learned from the mistakes overseas

You Know.....in some ways Im wondering if a brand new investor....one who hasnt been closely following the share market to form a solid concept of the ''bull run''mentality ,while they look at all the details of each individual share,might not just have the edge on investing....Im guessing you also never expected a virus to come along like this?....are you sure your not looking to closely at the boat...and not seeing the cyclone around it?...Its a nice boat on a sunny day

[Beagle]

Good vigorous debate which is a good thing.
For the sake of clarity I put on a 1% portfolio allocation yesterday. Not one point something percent, just 1.0 percent. I have offsetting shorts in AIR, HGH and TRA that match the size of this position and my position in PAZ. I am net 100% in cash, short term bank deposits and Kiwi bonds.

Yes its probably a bit early but the shares have halved from several weeks ago when Macquarie sold out at $1.20 and they are trading at just on half NAV.
Could they halve again down to 30 cents ? I think that's unlikely but I wouldn't be upset about it as it would present a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy. Most of OCA's revenue's come from Govt funding.

[mp52]

Elderlies will be much safer in closed communities than if they live outside of retirement communities. No need for them to go shopping, the nurse will visit them instead of them going to the medical center and getting coughed on by a myriad of potentially sick people.

Well said. I happen to dealing with an elderly family member's situation at the moment moving from townhouse to apartment. Yesterday, the home had an acceptable offer on the townhouse within hours of our confirming the move.

The villa people still have to shop.
In most cases the nurse looks after the care people not the villa people.

Edit: I am curious however, why Oceania has taken as swift a kick to the b#**s as it has relative to other providers?
The response from the retirement villages has been swift and effective - some (most?) putting gate security on entrance into the homes. It would take a whole new level of stupid for visitors to bluff their way through that just so they can put their family members at risk.

The villages are providing services to unit holders to reduce transmission risk as well. Yes, the industry will likely take a hit from some panic press and added overheads in response to the virus but even short term, villages are as good an option as any currently out there for oldies.

[macduffy]

Well said, mp52. A bit of sanity amongst the panic.

[BlackPeter]

Unfortunately the likes of Oceania consist of more than care.
The villa people still have to shop.
In most cases the nurse looks after the care people not the villa people.
I agree that they will still be better off in a village where they have better protocols for dealing with this.

It will be very easy to organize online shopping or telephone orders for these villages - wouldn't you think so? They can go shopping by themselves, but they certainly don't have to.