Black Monday

[Cadalac123]

The mind boggles at the prices being driven up. There is a long way to go before we fully appreciate what the impact of this thing is going to be.
In the UK for example, case numbers are estimated to be 10 times recorded because they are only testing people in hospitals, so the bulk of people are not recorded. For instance, rest homes are not tested, so if you get in there or die in a rest home you do not die of COVID-19 officially. Thy also have numerous doctors on ventilators and these are people in their 30s. While some people show no symptoms but are carriers, if you are lucky enough to have the right genes then you cough your lungs up no matter your age. Lots yet to understand about this thing and what the final impact will be globally.

Agreed, even our beloved Serko rising up to 40% today was ridiculous.
Then again, it's fallen quite a long way down.

[Lewylewylewy]

To add to my previous post, there's also lots of stimulus packages coming out around the world.

The question is, is this enough to whomp enough companies and individuals to create a recession following covid19. The next question is whether such a recession would be NZ, specific countries or global.

Personally i feel that there are some bargains out there, some risky shares (more than you might expect if you haven't analysed each one yet!) and some fairly priced shares.

I agree about the feeling of missing out. This might act as a level of support if it goes down again.

My suspicion is that it won't go back to where it was, but itd be good to look at the volume of trades that pushed the prices up to these levels before forming a solid opinion.

[Valuegrowth]

I don’t really understand these articles. Yeah so a company growing with extreme eps quarter and quarter is going to lag a stalwart growing at 0-3percent . When was this ever a phenomenon?

There are some good things in this article.

Throughout market history, investors have repeatedly abandoned this simple principle during periods where bull market advances seemed to defy logic. Ultimately, those investors paid a dear price for their speculation as the reality of "overpaying for value" led to poor financial outcomes.
The market's surge higher since the financial crisis, which has been driven by massive fiscal and monetary policies, has been nothing short of extraordinary.

As Michael Lebowitz, CFA, previously noted:
"As a result of these behaviors and actions, we have witnessed an anomaly in what has historically spelled success for investors. Stronger companies with predictable income generation and solid balance sheets have grossly underperformed companies with unreliable earnings and over-burdened balance sheets. The prospect of majestic future growth has trumped dependable growth. Companies with little to no income and massive debts have been the winners."

I would like to go behind well-established stronger companies with predictable income generation and solid balance sheets. If they are cash cow, zero debt or low debt then it is a plus point. Given the current situation, I would put my money in companies that know how to manage their finances. Weathering economic storms can be a struggle for heavily-indebted companies, making them less attractive stocks to buy. They also can not respond quickly to opportunities. On the other hand, cash rich companies can respond quickly to opportunities. Buying growth companies at a great discount is a good strategy. I see extended P/E ratio for many growth companies thanks to long bull market. In my opinion, the best time for value investors to buy stocks is in a market panic. It should be selective according to the situation and company should have a strong balance sheet and should trade at a very attractive price. In fact corona created some great value stocks. When I was following global markets, I saw some bigger shifts in global stock markets over the last week. Some stocks had strong demand when markets tanked.

[frostyboy]

To add to my previous post, there's also lots of stimulus packages coming out around the world.

The question is, is this enough to whomp enough companies and individuals to create a recession following covid19. The next question is whether such a recession would be NZ, specific countries or global.

Personally i feel that there are some bargains out there, some risky shares (more than you might expect if you haven't analysed each one yet!) and some fairly priced shares.

I agree about the feeling of missing out. This might act as a level of support if it goes down again.

My suspicion is that it won't go back to where it was, but itd be good to look at the volume of trades that pushed the prices up to these levels before forming a solid opinion.

The stimulus is to try and reduce the recession that has already started.

It won't be enough, NZ finance minister admits his stimulus cant stop business failure and redundancies just reduce them. NZ has one of the biggest stimulus packages.

I've checked NZ power shares, volume on price action doesn't suggest bottom is in, maybe this sector could have the bottoming type that doesn't need the volume

I checked South Korea Index, volume on price action suggests bottom isn't in


"Longitudinal research has shown that since the beginning of the 20th century, every bear market has spawned at least one rally of five percent or more, and then proceeded lower, before the market begins an uptrend. That means that every bear market has at least one, and usually more, sucker rallies"

[Lewylewylewy]

Good point about foreign indexes. Nzx might find its level, but a fall abroad usually equates to a subsequent fall here.

[value_investor]

Took yesterday as a buying chance and it made me look like a wizard, perhaps I should drop my profession and start a career as a online guru and so called market timer. Even broken clocks are right 2x a day right. I've held cash the past 6 months just because there hasn't been much value propositions.

In all seriousness, I'm just finding little pockets of unbelievable value and staggering my money into the market. Into individual stocks right now, I like getting into the US markets through USF but I see more long term pain there when the real statistics come out of how bad the situation will be.

[Joshuatree]

DOW has had the worst week ever and worst month since 1931 (CNBC) More to come imo.

And now the DOW has had its best day since 1933 up 11.4%

Today.Futures were well in the green but have turned red atpit.

[ynot]

Can't help but think this is drop is far from over. Beware the falling knife. It can be savage.

[Balance]

Took yesterday as a buying chance and it made me look like a wizard, perhaps I should drop my profession and start a career as a online guru and so called market timer. Even broken clocks are right 2x a day right. I've held cash the past 6 months just because there hasn't been much value propositions.

In all seriousness, I'm just finding little pockets of unbelievable value and staggering my money into the market. Into individual stocks right now, I like getting into the US markets through USF but I see more long term pain there when the real statistics come out of how bad the situation will be.

Plus, there's a buffoon in charge there who is attempting a massive cover-up of how really bad the problem is.

Got a message from a friend in Virginia overnight - she operates an organic health & beauty spa there. A doctor client of her spa has not been well, went for a virus test and a week later is still waiting for the result! Her view - 'Those numbers they are rep[orting do not include tens of thousands of pending cases ..."

[JBmurc]

Can't help but think this is drop is far from over. Beware the falling knife. It can be savage.

Yes dead cat bounce will soon turn further down sadly >> has allowed me to exit a couple companies .... funds going into Gold/silver companies

Gold up 5.6% the largest daily move in history.. ANZ bank see's $2,000USD to be crossed during 2Q20-

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-1...-ANZ-Bank.html