SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[mistaTea]

You brave boys

Woah! Woah! Woah!

Mate can I just clarify - I’m the one on the right with the larger testicles, correct?

Otherwise your post is just downright offensive!

[Snoopy]

lol.

I'm at 150k @ 23.6c average.

Still in the green but for how long?

I hold about 350k.

Plan to add more very soon. Maybe take my holding to 400K.

A word from some-one who lost big time on a 'sure thing'. You guys need to 'get out more' and look seriously at another investment opportunity with a different company. I am not saying quit your position with SKT. But the more money you put into SKT, the more convinced you seem to be that you are right. You may be right. But there are always factors out there that you cannot control and cannot reasonably estimate. Having an alternative investment prospect to look at in parallel to SKT will widen your investment horizon and may just save you big bucks. Stay in the SKT silo and your confirmation bias will increase.

From a fellow sharetrader who has been in a similar position (not with SKT), and doesn't want to see others fall into the same trap!

SNOOPY

[klid]

Yeah I think the odds are good on this one but it's still obviously extremely risky. I'd like to be calling the shots and would feel pretty confident if I were. But there's hope.

The merged Lightbox/Neon service will be a big driver I think so hopefully that gets done right and they survive.

[kiora]

A word from some-one who lost big time on a 'sure thing'. You guys need to 'get out more' and look seriously at another investment opportunity with a different company. I am not saying quit your position with SKT. But the more money you put into SKT, the more convinced you seem to be that you are right. You may be right. But there are always factors out there that you cannot control and cannot reasonably estimate. Having an alternative investment prospect to look at in parallel to SKT will widen your investment horizon and may just save you big bucks. Stay in the SKT silo and your confirmation bias will increase.

From a fellow sharetrader who has been in a similar position (not with SKT), and doesn't want to see others fall into the same trap!

SNOOPY

I second that Snoopy,been there,tried that. Didn't work
Important to limit to % of portfolio,higher risk,higher unrealized potential ,yeah no thanks,better slower & steadier
I always find better risk/reward is waiting around the corner if patient

[mistaTea]

A word from some-one who lost big time on a 'sure thing'. You guys need to 'get out more' and look seriously at another investment opportunity with a different company. I am not saying quit your position with SKT. But the more money you put into SKT, the more convinced you seem to be that you are right. You may be right. But there are always factors out there that you cannot control and cannot reasonably estimate. Having an alternative investment prospect to look at in parallel to SKT will widen your investment horizon and may just save you big bucks. Stay in the SKT silo and your confirmation bias will increase.

From a fellow sharetrader who has been in a similar position (not with SKT), and doesn't want to see others fall into the same trap!

SNOOPY

You are 100% correct that investors need to be careful not to fall into the confirmation bias trap. I think if you were to go back through many of my previous commentary I have pointed out both the issues/challenges as well as the positives for Sky TV. I definitely do not have 'rose tinted' glasses on for Sky, and am fully aware of the challenges faced by the company.

Sky TV is a company I am able to understand. My investing style is one of a consolidation approach. To me it makes no sense to diversify and put a bunch of money in my, say, 30th 'best idea' when I have an opportunity to acquire more of my 1st best idea at a large discount to intrinsic value. In that respect I am a worshiper of the Church of Munger, and Charlie is my Cult Leader.

It is also important to note that risk != volatility.
Risk = not knowing what you are doing. Time will either prove that I do know what I am doing when it comes to Sky, or that perhaps I didn't understand the business as well as I thought I did.

I continue to like the business, and the story has not changed at all from when I first invested in the company. If the story changes, naturally I will review my position. Until then, if Mr Market keeps offering equity in the company for what I believe are low prices relative to intrinsic value, I will keep buying more.

[Ogg]

Mr Market keeps offering equity in the company for what I believe are low prices relative to intrinsic value

This.

Even ASB securities agrees. They say it's intrinsic value is worth $1.

It's got that nice green bar around the buy button on the stock platform

[Stranger_Danger]

Sky TV is a company I am able to understand. My investing style is one of a consolidation approach. To me it makes no sense to diversify and put a bunch of money in my, say, 30th 'best idea' when I have an opportunity to acquire more of my 1st best idea at a large discount to intrinsic value. In that respect I am a worshiper of the Church of Munger, and Charlie is my Cult Leader.

With the greatest of respect, I'm not sure you understand Sky TV as well as you think you do. You may understand it as a company, a balance sheet, a management team, all of these things in and of themselves, but the key to how this investment is performing and will likely turn out is to understand Sky TV in relation to the world around it.

When I've raised piracy options, you typically respond to it as a moral issue. And as a moral issue, you win, piracy is stealing etc etc.

But, instead of seeing it as a moral issue, have you had a crack at exploring this alternative way to obtain content? Have you tried streaming, torrenting, installed Kodi or similar? Got hold of an Android phone, downloaded the apps that give you, for free, a vast ocean of on demand content at a price point Sky can never match - zero.

Have you taken the time to see how teenagers use a mobile phone? Watched how 5 year olds make their way around a tablet instinctively? Seen the confused look when a kid is visiting their grandma and 5 different people are watching this big box in a room, the timing of the content chosen by someone miles away they've never met, and their varied tastes meaning that 4 of them aren't watching what they want to watch?

If a man from mars came to Earth knowing nothing, and all he wanted was the widest range of content, available on the widest range of platforms, before even considering cost (once he considers cost, things get much worse for Sky obviously), do you honestly think, even with price not a consideration, the answer he'd land on is Sky TV?

Look, I see myself as a deep value investor. I've watched it all the way down. I've nearly bought the damn thing. By any fundamental valuation measure, it has looked cheap for a long time.

The answer isn't to look deeper at Sky TV. The answer is to look away, and look at the rest of the world, and how it has changed.

At best, you're in a business of collecting money from lazy, old people until they die. At best. Is that really the business you want to be in?

Go and talk to a hundred eighteen year olds going flatting. In my circle, back in the dark ages, there was a list of essentials - bed, stereo, couch, TV....Sky subscription.

Talk to the equivalent circle, a hundred eighteen year olds today. How many will sign up with Sky? My guess is zero.

[Ogg]

With the greatest of respect, I'm not sure you understand Sky TV as well as you think you do. You may understand it as a company, a balance sheet, a management team, all of these things in and of themselves, but the key to how this investment is performing and will likely turn out is to understand Sky TV in relation to the world around it.

When I've raised piracy options, you typically respond to it as a moral issue. And as a moral issue, you win, piracy is stealing etc etc.

But, instead of seeing it as a moral issue, have you had a crack at exploring this alternative way to obtain content? Have you tried streaming, torrenting, installed Kodi or similar? Got hold of an Android phone, downloaded the apps that give you, for free, a vast ocean of on demand content at a price point Sky can never match - zero.

Have you taken the time to see how teenagers use a mobile phone? Watched how 5 year olds make their way around a tablet instinctively? Seen the confused look when a kid is visiting their grandma and 5 different people are watching this big box in a room, the timing of the content chosen by someone miles away they've never met, and their varied tastes meaning that 4 of them aren't watching what they want to watch?

If a man from mars came to Earth knowing nothing, and all he wanted was the widest range of content, available on the widest range of platforms, before even considering cost (once he considers cost, things get much worse for Sky obviously), do you honestly think, even with price not a consideration, the answer he'd land on is Sky TV?

Look, I see myself as a deep value investor. I've watched it all the way down. I've nearly bought the damn thing. By any fundamental valuation measure, it has looked cheap for a long time.

The answer isn't to look deeper at Sky TV. The answer is to look away, and look at the rest of the world, and how it has changed.

At best, you're in a business of collecting money from lazy, old people until they die. At best. Is that really the business you want to be in?

Go and talk to a hundred eighteen year olds going flatting. In my circle, back in the dark ages, there was a list of essentials - bed, stereo, couch, TV....Sky subscription.

Talk to the equivalent circle, a hundred eighteen year olds today. How many will sign up with Sky? My guess is zero.

Just lol.

Not this argument again.

Go back to the 2nd page of this thread. Yes, all the way back to 2008 - over 13 years ago!

Here's the link:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post208079

The argument that Sky is dead seems to never die. The irony is that Sky never dies.

This is why I'm making a huge bet on this stock because the fundamentals of this stock hasn't changed but the market keeps buying into this "netflix" doomsday story that never eventuates. The reason is because satellite and the internet are two different things.

The company was doing fine and paying dividends for ages. Then all of a sudden the market falsely believed the streaming story and it caused the stock price to collapse.

The funny thing is that the stock used to make about $200m per year and it basically still does today.

And just lol about the alien analogy. How do you think space ships work? Do you think they use cat5 ethernet wire or a wifi access point in space. No, it's satellite technology!

The point is, is that the business is not in decline. It's actually growing customers. It's also well position in the streaming market plus still has the monopoly of traditional pay TV.

No one is saying that this company is worth billions but it's a good cash cow that is selling for only $100m.

[bung5]

Just lol.

The funny thing is that the stock used to make about $200m per year and it basically still does today.

You sure about that?

[Stranger_Danger]

Just lol.

The argument that Sky is dead seems to never die. The irony is that Sky never dies.

This is why I'm making a huge bet on this stock because the fundamentals of this stock hasn't changed but the market keeps buying into this "netflix" doomsday story that never eventuates.

A doomsday story that never eventuates? The stock is down from around $6 to 26.5 cents. How much more doomsday are you looking for?

The fundamentals of the stock, and the outlook for the future, have profoundly changed. I'm no doubt leaving plenty out but

- Netflix, Apple, Amazon, Disney, Hulu and many many others are engaged in a content producing land grab where they are willing to pour billions into making unique content in order to sign up customers to a streaming service.

- Some kid wrote some software so they steal content from the xbox in their bedroom, which their parents presumably thought was just for playing games. This morphed into the Kodi project, and there are thousands of others, for mobile and desktop platforms. More than providing the software that allowed TV viewers to "cut the cord", the real easier to miss revolution was a change in receiving content as a family unit at a set time, to each individual choosing their device, platform, time and content.

- Realising that providing pre recorded content by satellite is a business with no future, the businesses like Sky TV have been cutting each others throats paying over the odds for live content such as sports. For example, witness the insane amounts paid for WWE content - the product is getting worse, the ratings are getting lower, but for he TV network, it is live and they can sell ads around it, so they've paid silly amounts.

I could go on but in 2008 you didn't have the biggest companies in the world creating new content and selling it as a loss leader, you didn't have thousands of kids writing software to make piracy easier, not just cheaper, than the legal alternative, and you didn't have the pay TV providers paying truly insane sums for live content believing, correctly, that this was the only part of the industry they hadn't already lost.

The fundamentals have profoundly changed. The share price is telling you that. The actions of young people - eg where business growth needs to come from - are absolutely screaming it.

Now you, Ogg, may well have got close to the "bottom" price and you may get a puff out of this cigar butt. Even I was sorely tempted at the price you paid. But you're kidding yourself if you think the fundamentals have not changed.