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 Originally Posted by JBmurc
Not this time ...kiwis ticked up during these low rates was cheaper than renting ..but now with many losing jobs, less hours +lower incomes you can't just walk away and look for cheap location etc ..this will be brutal
As I said before, i'm still talking to those in my circle that are clueless of the impact this virus would have on the economy. Too may enjoying Xbox at home... not a lot of productivity going on but they treat it as a 'holiday'. Well what if at the end of the holiday their job is not there? No one plans ahead, all going on 'hope' while watching the Ms Ardern speech of the day.
I can't say immigration would be that hot from now on. How will tourism come back to NZ if AirNZ says even after 5 years they will never get back their 'international routes' like they were few months ago?
There was a short moment back in February where I though to take my money and buy more NZ real estate. The inconvenience of owning more was what put me off and instead, exchanged the vast majority of my cash into USD and set it to my US broker. (I discussed this in another post); the process was not straight forward but hindsight.. WELL worth it - this week I hope to invest the remainder of the cash.
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Originally Posted by SBQ
As I said before, i'm still talking to those in my circle that are clueless of the impact this virus would have on the economy. Too may enjoying Xbox at home... not a lot of productivity going on but they treat it as a 'holiday'. Well what if at the end of the holiday their job is not there? No one plans ahead, all going on 'hope' while watching the Ms Ardern speech of the day.
I can't say immigration would be that hot from now on. How will tourism come back to NZ if AirNZ says even after 5 years they will never get back their 'international routes' like they were few months ago?
There was a short moment back in February where I though to take my money and buy more NZ real estate. The inconvenience of owning more was what put me off and instead, exchanged the vast majority of my cash into USD and set it to my US broker. (I discussed this in another post); the process was not straight forward but hindsight.. WELL worth it - this week I hope to invest the remainder of the cash.
Slightly off topic but yesterday I spoke to two people working in tourism overseas. One has a whale watching business in the North Atlantic. Last year they (him and others) took our 108,000 customers. They are forecasting 7,000 this year, most of them already done.
The other one is a pilot in a port in the sub-antarctic where cruise vessels dock for Antarctic trips. They have been getting 110-140 cruise ships between Oct-Apr in recent years. Next season they expect "less than 10".
Both of the above examples are venture/outdoor type tourists, like majority that visits NZ is. This is the scale we are talking about. A complete collapse for potentially a long time to come.
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Originally Posted by iceman
Slightly off topic but yesterday I spoke to two people working in tourism overseas. One has a whale watching business in the North Atlantic. Last year they (him and others) took our 108,000 customers. They are forecasting 7,000 this year, most of them already done.
The other one is a pilot in a port in the sub-antarctic where cruise vessels dock for Antarctic trips. They have been getting 110-140 cruise ships between Oct-Apr in recent years. Next season they expect "less than 10".
Both of the above examples are venture/outdoor type tourists, like majority that visits NZ is. This is the scale we are talking about. A complete collapse for potentially a long time to come.
Agree with Iceman
Aside from those direct affects on businesses, tourist dollars tend to go round many times in the local communities as well - contributing to other direct & indirect local businesses & services, also paying the taxman clipping the ticket each step of the way..
Potential losses go considerably wider than just patronage of Travel, Tourism & Hospitality businesses - exponentally
How many businesses in Kaikoura will be relatively unscathed with what we have currently - look further to the service/supply chains to the affected businesses and the ones supplying those further back along the supply chain.
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"Lockdown 'final straw' for worried property investors"
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/h...erty-investors
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Originally Posted by kiora
Right. So one of two things might happen. The landlords who are desperate to quit their rentals will either sell to another investor or, if they can't attract a buyer, will have to meet the market of prospective owner-occupiers who can't afford today's prices. Either way, the properties don't disappear. Is there a third possibility?
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Originally Posted by macduffy
Right. So one of two things might happen. The landlords who are desperate to quit their rentals will either sell to another investor or, if they can't attract a buyer, will have to meet the market of prospective owner-occupiers who can't afford today's prices. Either way, the properties don't disappear. Is there a third possibility?
Not all property investors will want to exit the sector. Even for those that do they may choose to wait and see how supply and demand works out. Tourism will be a problem area for a good while, tertiary education will bounce back early. Net migration - anyone's guess.
A third possibility is leave the rental vacant or lower the rent for the time being, carrying forward rental losses until the market changes.
And property investors who were looking to build new or buy existing for rentals now won't if the numbers don't stack up. That will impact apartment developments and reduce private rental supply, though the government might buy them for social housing, as demand will continue to rocket up.
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Originally Posted by kiora
As we already know only too well, State intervention in a business environment never ends well.
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