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09-04-2020, 04:36 PM
#4931
Could we have now passed through the worst of it? With only 29 infected offset by 35 recovered is it possible that we'll be the only western country to make it through with very little death.
80c is still -20% of NTA.
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09-04-2020, 04:40 PM
#4932
I like what someone else was saying earlier, "if its cheap, buy it!"
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09-04-2020, 05:12 PM
#4933
Originally Posted by youngatheart
Could we have now passed through the worst of it? With only 29 infected offset by 35 recovered is it possible that we'll be the only western country to make it through with very little death.
80c is still -20% of NTA.
You are referring to the COVID-19 cases in NZ, I presume? Well, yes, we might have reached some plateau, will drop from here in a week or two and with a lot of luck we might not have a second (and third) wave.
If you are however referring to whether the worst of the bear market has passed ... honestly, I doubt it. Markets clearly in denial about the economical impact of the lock down in something like 50% of all world markets (including NZ). Huge drop of earnings for many companies and lots of them will go kaputt. Stock prices really expensive based on forward earnings these days. Might kill some banks as well - and just think what the huge jump in debts (to pay all these relieve packages) will do to countries balance sheets. Spain, Italy and the UK not being able to repay their debts anyone?
If all of this results in property prices crashing, than this won't be good for retirement stocks. On the other hand - all the cheap money currently produced by reserve banks around the world might as well pop up stock and property prices (as it did last time).
Which of these two effects will be stronger? Well, your guess is as good as mine.
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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09-04-2020, 05:24 PM
#4934
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
... Stock prices really expensive based on forward earnings these days. Might kill some banks as well - and just think what the huge jump in debts (to pay all these relieve packages) will do to countries balance sheets. Spain, Italy and the UK not being able to repay their debts anyone?
If all of this results in property prices crashing, than this won't be good for retirement stocks....
Some huge Coovid packages have been thrown around. Add France to that trio of large European debtors. The UK Public debt to GDP is 85%; The French Public debt to GDP is 100%. (Germany's is at 60%)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...why-2020-03-12
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09-04-2020, 05:52 PM
#4935
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
You are referring to the COVID-19 cases in NZ, I presume? Well, yes, we might have reached some plateau, will drop from here in a week or two and with a lot of luck we might not have a second (and third) wave.
If you are however referring to whether the worst of the bear market has passed ... honestly, I doubt it. Markets clearly in denial about the economical impact of the lock down in something like 50% of all world markets (including NZ). Huge drop of earnings for many companies and lots of them will go kaputt. Stock prices really expensive based on forward earnings these days. Might kill some banks as well - and just think what the huge jump in debts (to pay all these relieve packages) will do to countries balance sheets. Spain, Italy and the UK not being able to repay their debts anyone?
If all of this results in property prices crashing, than this won't be good for retirement stocks. On the other hand - all the cheap money currently produced by reserve banks around the world might as well pop up stock and property prices (as it did last time).
Which of these two effects will be stronger? Well, your guess is as good as mine.
it will be interesting to see how soon the reserve banks get the mop out to swipe some of the surplus ca$h back out of their goldfish bowls
and then what interest rates do..
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09-04-2020, 08:26 PM
#4936
Originally Posted by Bjauck
Oceania has been devalued.
At this stage is cash king?
Or will cash be devalued?
It looks as if Oceania will keep paying dividends
What do you feel will happen to interest rates?
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10-04-2020, 08:41 PM
#4937
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13-04-2020, 10:53 AM
#4938
Member
Humming and harring at the moment over if we are going to see OCA go down again with all the news about rest-homes and villages in the last 4-5 days... 80 cents is nicely below NTA but 60cents would be nice again! Thoughts?
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13-04-2020, 10:58 AM
#4939
Originally Posted by TobyPascoe92
Humming and harring at the moment over if we are going to see OCA go down again with all the news about rest-homes and villages in the last 4-5 days... 80 cents is nicely below NTA but 60cents would be nice again! Thoughts?
More of a long term hold proposition now at this price I think. There will be plenty more like you and I queuing up to get in in the 6x range again, if it should get down there. I think the market has already factored in the idea already that these companies may see the odd outbreak.
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13-04-2020, 11:13 AM
#4940
Originally Posted by TobyPascoe92
Humming and harring at the moment over if we are going to see OCA go down again with all the news about rest-homes and villages in the last 4-5 days... 80 cents is nicely below NTA but 60cents would be nice again! Thoughts?
Discount to NTA at OCA is 21%. Some impact to NTA from this Virus ?...so the true discount to adjusted post virus NTA is perhaps not really 21% but something perhaps materially less ? For what its worth I would be happy to buy more in the 60's but not in the 80's and will probably sit and be a dog, (possum ?), in the headlights in the 70's.
P.S. Some economists thoughts here are quite interesting. All expecting at least a 6% reduction in real estate values. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12322288
Last edited by Beagle; 13-04-2020 at 11:38 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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