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  1. #1601
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    Quote Originally Posted by crighton100 View Post
    ...Please dont forget that all the time the unit residents are paying a fixed fee every week for the pleasure of staying & that covers all the outgoing costs for the village.So you can see the company is in a great position [running all the time of the shut down & fully financed] & as soon as its all over away they go again,selling the departeds units & so far we have lost none in our village.they really are looking after us oldies.....
    It sounds like you are in the best place during the Epidemic. I have heard similar from other retirement villages - that the village will organise prescription collection, have their own grocery ordering services and generally keep an eye on independent unit residents during the lockdown.

    This is contrary to the down ramping narrative put about by some. If I were being cynical, that had been to try to buy back into the retirement stocks at as a cheap a price as possible - the epidemic being a not to-be-missed opportunity to exploit.

  2. #1602
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bjauck View Post
    This is contrary to the down ramping narrative put about by some. If I were being cynical, that had been to try to buy back into the retirement stocks at as a cheap a price as possible - the epidemic being a not to-be-missed opportunity to exploit.
    To be fair, my recollection is that speculation of that nature was predominantly prior to the govt presenting a clear plan to minimise the risk of widespread community transmission.

  3. #1603
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyclist View Post
    To be fair, my recollection is that speculation of that nature was predominantly prior to the govt presenting a clear plan to minimise the risk of widespread community transmission.
    Villages had already introduced their own CoronaVirus responses some time prior to the government’s plan. However, Fair enough, I may well be being too cynical.

    My recollection is that it was down-ramping of retirement villages in general as being a more risky place (in epidemics) for independent unit living by the elderly, as opposed to living in homes in the community.

    My opinion based on from what I have heard, is that Whether in lockdown or not, the elderly in retirement villages have more facilities and village security measures to insure social distancing is possible.

    I think the pivotal moment when down-ramping stopped was when the opportunity arose for purchase of shares at sufficiently deflated prices. Those purchasers may then have suddenly decided that would not give voice to their opinions that villages were more unsafe for the elderly than living outside of a retirement village.

  4. #1604
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bjauck View Post
    Villages had already introduced their own CoronaVirus responses some time prior to the government’s plan. However, Fair enough, I may well be being too cynical.

    My recollection is that it was down-ramping of retirement villages in general as being a more risky place (in epidemics) for independent unit living by the elderly, as opposed to living in homes in the community.

    My opinion based on from what I have heard, is that Whether in lockdown or not, the elderly in retirement villages have more facilities and village security measures to insure social distancing is possible.

    I think the pivotal moment when down-ramping stopped was when the opportunity arose for purchase of shares at sufficiently deflated prices. Those purchasers may then have suddenly decided that would not give voice to their opinions that villages were more unsafe for the elderly than living outside of a retirement village.
    We also need to remember the context over the last few weeks has been changing rapidly as we start to understand the implications of the virus and the measures companies in the sector have been putting in place. The idea that it may be safer for the residents to be in such places as opposed to out in the general community wasn't really commonly accepted 3 or 4 weeks ago. In retrospect, I can see how investors may have been giving these companies a wide birth on the face value of the situation at hand.

    Sentiment has evolved somewhat since then as we've started to appreciate that it's probably safer for residents in the villages and also the revenue streams are generally a lot safer than a good chunk of other sectors.

    Still, when you consider what's happening in one or two Christchurch homes and the constantly evolving state of this virus situation, there is still plenty of scope for investor nervousness. The next two weeks will be telling.

  5. #1605
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclical View Post
    ...Still, when you consider what's happening in one or two Christchurch homes and the constantly evolving state of this virus situation, there is still plenty of scope for investor nervousness. The next two weeks will be telling.
    Sure many, in the absence of any evidence, were quite happy to level FUD - fear uncertainty and doubt - on the retirement villages. Quite the contrary was evident at the time.

    If you are referring to those in rest home and hospital care, then of course there is always the possibility of infection and contagion. As there is in public hospitals. But what alternatives exist for those who cannot afford a posse of private nurses and carers, if they need rest home or hospital level care? Let us hope that the stockpilers of PPE have not cause a shortage of PPE for those that actually need it.

  6. #1606
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    Thanks crighton..great post.Re the 30 % lose...i.e $210 is that a maximum or confirmed.Re properties going up in price..mmm..I cannot see it in the immediate future.That "mug" comment ..Im not so sure about that and the figure of $600 figure I have doubts about that too.Yes I understand the weekly figure is about $500 pw ($25k py)...I understand that circumstances differ,,but does the pension cover that ?.Again great post go well mate

  7. #1607
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    Another good article in the herald a bout this sector. Heres a teaser to encourage folks to take up the $64 for 8 weeks. Charts and comparisons between all listed companies.

    "Nonetheless, economic slowdown or not, the growth in population of over-75s in both New Zealand and Victoria (Australia) will continue, underpinning longer-term growth in unit development and sales.In 30 years, the number of New Zealand over-75s will have increased from 330,000 today to around 850,000, with even greater growth in that age group forecast for Victoria."
    Oliver Mander: Retirement village blues will fade away

  8. #1608
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    OK after 1 year in the village you lose 10%,after 2 you lose 20% after 3 or more years you lose 30% of your original buy in price.That applies to all of us,most of the units are the same in size etc & they now sell around the $600k & the price is assessed by a valuation by an outside company so you can see how inflation has increased the price of these units [we sold our 5 bedroom house 11 years ago for $525k,it would be over 1m now,so its all relative].The weekly fee for us is $130,people moving in today pay just over $150 pw,the fee is fixed for the duration of your stay & one pension more than covers this cost.For that fee it covers house insurance,water & property rates,rubbish collection,maintenance of your unit & the village amenities,gardening & lawnmowing,emergency call buttons in your unit,with 24hour nurse on site.Facilities include billiard & 8 ball table,lounge with all the sky channels on large tv,bowling green,putting green,petanque court,crochet & heated swimming pool & hot tub.The most important thing is security,the gates are locked at night & we have a night watchman.So mug was not the right word to use,as its more like a holiday camp.At present under the lock down,we are a bubble & required to also be unit bubbles,no mixing with the others,we can walk around the village but must be at least 2m apart.The staff do all our shopping & drop at our door & collect pharmacy stuff,the nurses ring everyone in the village at least twice a week to check we are OK.When you live here you have to be able to look after yourself,when you cannot you leave for a resthome [thats the places that are having problems you will have seen in the news].Hope that clarifies things a bit for you.Happy Easter.This was in answer to troyvdh,I did not know how to do a reply.
    Last edited by crighton100; 12-04-2020 at 10:50 AM.

  9. #1609
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    Thanks Crighton. That weekly fee seems almost too cheap. I can appreciate why they've bumped up the minimum age if the fee is locked in for the duration...

    Quote Originally Posted by crighton100 View Post
    This was in answer to troyvdh,I did not know how to do a reply.
    You just need to click that "Reply With Quote" button below the comment you wish to reply to. You can always click the "Edit Post" button on your posts if it doesn't work out as planned.
    Last edited by Cyclical; 12-04-2020 at 11:09 AM.

  10. #1610
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    all this gloomy and pssimistic talk of deep recessions and even depressions is a worry

    If adepression eventuates I wouldn’t think MET is ‘cheap’ at the moment
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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