Black Monday

[bull....]

even buffet see no value in the market even after the declines

Berkshire Hathaway’s first-quarter earnings revealed that Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett built up the conglomerate’s cash fortress and only bought small portions of stock during the violent rout of equity markets due to the coronavirus.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warr...rket-rout.html

virtual meeting on now with buffet

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warr...e-updates.html



Buffett Stays on Sidelines With Cash Rising to $137 Billion

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia

[Bjauck]

another big risk going forward for the markets is trump ramping up criticism and talking of payback towards china for the releasing the virus on america from there bat lab....

President Trump's "forte" seems to be the ability to inflame a difficult situation to wring political advantage for himself.

[Balance]

$330 billion in bank deposits - what happens when interest rates go negative in the doomsday scenarios painted here by some posters?

[workingdad]

$330 billion in bank deposits - what happens when interest rates go negative in the doomsday scenarios painted here by some posters?

I very much doubt nz will see negative interest rates.

Doomsday isn’t what I’m posting, what I am saying is the global economy is in a place it hasn’t experienced with different monetary policies it will pull through as a genuine recovery happens and that the markets that look through short term shocks is looking through to a fast recovery that just isn’t there, markets are ultimately based on business success which in turn eventually reflects profits and losses despite the free money out there to prop it all up and even free money has to be repaid sometime, debt is debt regardless of how you look at it.

[Balance]

I very much doubt nz will see negative interest rates.

Doomsday isn’t what I’m posting, what I am saying is the global economy is in a place it hasn’t experienced with different monetary policies it will pull through as a genuine recovery happens and that the markets that look through short term shocks is looking through to a fast recovery that just isn’t there, markets are ultimately based on business success which in turn eventually reflects profits and losses despite the free money out there to prop it all up and even free money has to be repaid sometime, debt is debt regardless of how you look at it.

1 year NZ swap rate is sitting at 0.21% and 2 year swap rate is at 0.19%.

Might as well call it zero %, right?

Market is already pricing in a long slow recovery - no quick recovery.

[Entrep]

Might as well call it zero %, right?

Not really, it's not zero.

[workingdad]

1 year NZ swap rate is sitting at 0.21% and 2 year swap rate is at 0.19%.

Might as well call it zero %, right?

Market is already pricing in a long slow recovery - no quick recovery.

Banks can’t lend money out without having deposits so it’s will always need to entice depositors hence the term deposit rates are not .21%

If the market was pricing in a long slow recovery why is it back up to where it was when there was no global economic risk to be factored in?

May I ask, where do you see the Global and domestic economy in 2 months time and where do you see the market levels both here and abroad?

[Balance]

Banks can’t lend money out without having deposits so it’s will always need to entice depositors hence the term deposit rates are not .21%

If the market was pricing in a long slow recovery why is it back up to where it was when there was no global economic risk to be factored in?

May I ask, where do you see the Global and domestic economy in 2 months time and where do you see the market levels both here and abroad?

There's already negative interest rates in Denmark, Japan and Germany. Other Euro countries are looking to follow. Westpac has forecast negative interest rates for NZ by end of the year.

My views on economies are well articulated, workingdad - recession but no depression. Don't fight the Fed.

Also I have already explained (thrice) why those looking at the index in NZ as indicative of the NZ economy have NO clue what they are writing about.

Likewise, the global indices.

Everyone needs to be looking the markets, sectors by sectors, stocks by stocks.

I am not bullish on the markets - but I am not going to sit here and watch the doomsday merchants preach complete doom & gloom (as they have now for 2 months) without considering all the pertinent factors at play.

[allfromacell]

The bond market is at least twice the size of the equities market, in inflation adjusted terms out swap rates are already negative yeild.

I have no clue where markets will head but cash in the last thing I want right now. Cash being king is old school thinking with modern central banking being the way it is.

[Balance]

The bond market is at least twice the size of the equities market, in inflation adjusted terms out swap rates are already negative yeild.

I have no clue where markets will head but cash in the last thing I want right now. Cash being king is old school thinking with modern central banking being the way it is.

Good point about inflation adjusted yield - thanks for pointing that out.

Short term, I believe cash is still king.

But when that tsunami of money printed out of thin air hits the financial markets (2021), money in the bank is going to be worthless relative to properties, businesses and productive assets.