Black Monday

[moka]

Laurie Garret predicted the coronavirus. What does she foresee next? Lots of Black Mondays. She has been telling everybody that her event horizon is about 36 months, and that's her best-case scenario,"

If America enters the next wave of coronavirus infections "with the wealthy having gotten somehow wealthier off this pandemic by hedging, by shorting, by doing all the nasty things that they do, and we come out of our rabbit holes and realise, 'Oh, my God, it's not just that everyone I love is unemployed or underemployed and can't make their maintenance or their mortgage payments or their rent payments, but now all of a sudden those jerks that were flying around in private helicopters are now flying on private personal jets, and they own an island that they go to, and they don't care whether or not our streets are safe,' then I think we could have massive political disruption.
"Just as we come out of our holes and see what 25 per cent unemployment looks like," she said, "we may also see what collective rage looks like."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12330039

[nztx]

Hindsight is 20/20 of course. Do you think our population would have acquiesced to a 4 week lock down if we had no cases? So many people were breaking level 4 when we had over 1000 cases, calling it a load of bulls%#t. I suspect if we had pulled the trigger too early, likely we would have lots of people breaking the lockdown causing heaps of community transmission and we still wouldn't have had it under control.

It may look like hindsight

However what's the best way of not having to eliminate something in the first place ?

the answer to that is fairly obvious - is it not

Some still dont appear to get it -- if acted on early on, it's likely NO Lockdown or other nonsense this Govt has had to dream up to cover their backsides for 'caught out asleep at the helm" early on would likely have been necessary at all..


Why did Govt sit on their hands when they should have been acting decisively ?

Upon what grounds did they consider that risk at an early point did not warrant fast early containment measures ?

Why did Peters as late as latter part of March still continue encouraging Expats & Kiwi's, with or without C-19 to return here, when the perceived risk was likely very considerably greater than January or February ?


This Govt are fairly good at 'stamping on things' and fast (eg. their action on Firearms)

why or what did they fail to comprehend on this one ?

they have failed Kiwi's on this one through their tardiness, have they not ?

they have failed Kiwi's by the unnecessary destruction of the economy & many businesses within it

they have failed Kiwi employees by failing to act until too late, resulting in job losses, huge costs to the taxpayer & large scale business carnage

they have failed Kiwi's by allowing cruise ship passengers to access NZ with unverified illness on board at a time when there were strong reasons to believe C-19 may have been present

probably more, but that will do for now..

[Tomtom]

I recollect somewhere reading Britain having large post WW II Public Debt which was only fully repaid in 2006. Goes to show Large Public debt is not always unhealthy, Nor deficits & Govts of the day DO NOT need to Tax the hell out everything still standing on the other side here ..
Let's see what the Political Dreamers of the Day think & how they act on it here ..

Well the UK got its money back because it invested in building infrastructure (e.g. motorway networks) and new towns (Stevenage, Crawley etc.)

It wasn't all spent on bombing Jerry you know.

[Entrep]

Laurie Garret predicted the coronavirus. What does she foresee next? Lots of Black Mondays. She has been telling everybody that her event horizon is about 36 months, and that's her best-case scenario,"

If America enters the next wave of coronavirus infections "with the wealthy having gotten somehow wealthier off this pandemic by hedging, by shorting, by doing all the nasty things that they do, and we come out of our rabbit holes and realise, 'Oh, my God, it's not just that everyone I love is unemployed or underemployed and can't make their maintenance or their mortgage payments or their rent payments, but now all of a sudden those jerks that were flying around in private helicopters are now flying on private personal jets, and they own an island that they go to, and they don't care whether or not our streets are safe,' then I think we could have massive political disruption.
"Just as we come out of our holes and see what 25 per cent unemployment looks like," she said, "we may also see what collective rage looks like."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12330039

socialism for the rich. Capitalism for the poor

[nztx]

Well the UK got its money back because it invested in building infrastructure (e.g. motorway networks) and new towns (Stevenage, Crawley etc.)

It wasn't all spent on bombing Jerry you know.

Probably correct

The point of the post was that Paying Down Public Debt can be spread forward as the UK did over 50-60 years
It need not be a knee jerk 'increase taxes & bring in every other sort of revenue gathering means possible' Labour action to bring it back in faster

Obviously Public Debt to GDP will show a heftier ratio going forward

[bull....]

While I completely agree with the sentiment, we are moving (too slowly) to a knowledge economy. It's likely now that tech is our second biggest export earner and will be bigger than tourism for the next 3-5 years at least. If tourism ever catches up after this shock. Check the graphics here: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12281337 .

You will note that if you divide the total export earnings by the number of people employed, they earn an average 168k per person. I would suggest that is a lot more than almost any other industry (maybe oil and gas is more) as it also has a tiny foot print (office buildings, fairly low power usage, pretty low resource usage). Tourism had 230k workers earning an average of 49k per person for comparison and has a pretty big footprint (ecologically, using up a lot of land and resources). Sure Dairy earns a lot more per person at 385k per person, but it has massive resource usage, land usage and environmental degradation effects. This shows why you have to take into account the total footprint when comparing industries.

Will take another decade or two to become bigger than dairy, but it will probably happen despite the lack of investment. Of course governments could supercharge this to being huge in a decade, but they are collectively clueless on how to do this.

agree know is the time to invest in the knowledge economy. microsoft investment in NZ is a good start. NZ also has the chance of first mover advantage to double international students into NZ while the rest of the world battles the virus

[Cyclical]

The Nasdaq is now up for the year.

It appears technology has us sorted.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...=mw_latestnews

[bull....]

The Nasdaq is now up for the year.

It appears technology has us sorted.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...=mw_latestnews

tech majors virus proof to a degree there the ones driving the nasdaq but the trade is getting pretty crowded. pph in NZ our star at the moment in the space


anyway back to reality of the rest of the markets and mainstreet peoples lives

Bank of England predicts worst recession in 300 years


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12330449

Bank of England predicts record crash and house price slump

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...-unemployment/


and in NZ a much better idea than extending the free for all business friendly wage subsidy

Government considering change to benefit access rules


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300...t-access-rules

so draconian that someone loses there job and because there married tough titties no welfare for you thru no fault of there own

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12330442

Mortgage rates below 3%.

[Balance]

The Nasdaq is now up for the year.

It appears technology has us sorted.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...=mw_latestnews

8.5% below all time high on 20 February 2020.

Interesting, isn't it?

Must be like a stab into the heart of the doomsday merchants who failed to take into consideration the massive fall in interest rates (positively impacting on valuations) and the fact that many of the technology companies can still operate in the lockdown world successfully.