OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[SCOTTY]

Fair consideration SCOTTY, with what other companies are doing ATM.

Rather than me spout off all the reasons why I think OCAs cashflow supports paying the usual divi, how about you outline why they wouldn't.

Dont get me wrong, I'm not trying to be adversarial, you my have some good points I just can't see.

They are bound to forge ahead with a cap raise as foreshadowed in HY1 (pre covid) to compliment their overdraught but I'm sure they were never intending to reduce the divi as part of that capital rearrangement.

Thanks Maverick. That is my question. I would like to know if we are still likely to continue getting dividends at present? Are their units and services likely to generate sufficient cash to cover expenses and pay dividends?
Cheers

[Maverick]

Hi Maverick, are you referring to potential retail bond issue mentioned in OCA H1 presentation (not an equity raise)?

Yeah Mogul, that's it. It's is NOT a looming share issue.
its just one line and actually really hard to find in the various forms of 1HY presentations, so well done for spotting it too.

[Maverick]

Thanks Maverick. That is my question. I would like to know if we are still likely to continue getting dividends at present? Are their units and services likely to generate sufficient cash to cover expenses and pay dividends?
Cheers

They just might hold back a bit of divi cash to be prudent but there is no liquidity problem either this year or the next, barring a property crash or large outbreak. All income OCA streams are very stable, even with no new and resales of ILU's during level 4, there is still no cashflow issue.
There will be extra COVID expenses but there is mitigating govt money coming for that so we are told.

So if Earle is conservative he might hold back a bit of moola although this is unnecessary barring a property collapse. However I do not imagine he is that way, he yacht races for fun so that means he knows how to take a calculated risk to get an edge.

In a nutshell , there is a chance the divi will be trimmed purely as a precaution but personally I think Earle will use this time to demonstrate the robustness of the model.

Disc , I don't know Earle personally , just assumptions on my part

[SCOTTY]

Thanks Maverick. Appreciate your opinion
Cheers

[Beagle]

They just might hold back a bit of divi cash to be prudent but there is no liquidity problem either this year or the next, barring a property crash or large outbreak. All income OCA streams are very stable, even with no new and resales of ILU's during level 4, there is still no cashflow issue.
There will be extra COVID expenses but there is mitigating govt money coming for that so we are told.

So if Earle is conservative he might hold back a bit of moola although this is unnecessary barring a property collapse. However I do not imagine he is that way, he yacht races for fun so that means he knows how to take a calculated risk to get an edge.

In a nutshell , there is a chance the divi will be trimmed purely as a precaution but personally I think Earle will use this time to demonstrate the robustness of the model.

Disc , I don't know Earle personally , just assumptions on my part

I concur with your viewpoint 100% mate.
To me it doesn't matter one way or the other if they hold back some or all of the next dividend as a one-off precautionary measure, and I am sure it doesn't bother you either. What matters is that this will be a one-off and the long term sustainability of the gross yield of 6.5% is not in question and is absolutely outstanding considering the long term growth characteristics of the industry and the robustness and defensive nature of the needs based care model OCA have in particular.
Underlying earnings of around 8.5 - 9.0 cps puts them on a normal year underlying PE of just 8.5. Hmmm

[percy]

I concur with your viewpoint 100% mate.
To me it doesn't matter one way or the other if they hold back some or all of the next dividend as a one-off precautionary measure, and I am sure it doesn't bother you either. What matters is that this will be a one-off and the long term sustainability of the gross yield of 6.5% is not in question and is absolutely outstanding considering the long term growth characteristics of the industry and the robustness and defensive nature of the needs based care model OCA have in particular.
Underlying earnings of around 8.5 - 9.0 cps puts them on a normal year underlying PE of just 8.5. Hmmm

Just think of an "enforced DRP"where all shareholders are treated equally.
No problem...lol.

[Ggcc]

Some big numbers getting sold and purchased after the news that on Thursday we will be in alert level 2. How that effects Oceania I do not know, but I do know that staff who are doing refurbishments may not be allowed to operate. Onward and upward to $1 hopefully.

[Beagle]

A little birdie tells me OCA will have ongoing very strict rules about visitation under Covid 19 level 2 protocols. Indicative measures as outlined to village managers are:-
Visits will be by 30 minute appointment, held in a place designated and supervised by management with strict decontamination procedures after each appointment.
Maximum of 2 family members allowed to attend, no hugging or touching.

Sounds very tough but I share this info from a discussion I had on the weekend with a very well respected OCA village manager to give investors some assurance as to how seriously OCA are continuing to take this matter and the steps they're taking to protect vulnerable residents.

Disc: I bought more OCA and MET today.

[Blue Skies]

A little birdie tells me OCA will have ongoing very strict rules about visitation under Covid 19 level 2 protocols. Indicative measures as outlined to village managers are:-
Visits will be by 30 minute appointment, held in a place designated and supervised by management with strict decontamination procedures after each appointment.
Maximum of 2 family members allowed to attend, no hugging or touching.

Sounds very tough but I share this info from a discussion I had on the weekend with a very well respected OCA village manager to give investors some assure as to how seriously OCA are continuing to take this matter and the steps they're taking to protect vulnerable residents.

Disc: I bought more OCA and MET today.

Thanks Beagle, appreciate your sharing.

[Cyclical]

A little birdie tells me OCA will have ongoing very strict rules about visitation under Covid 19 level 2 protocols. Indicative measures as outlined to village managers are:-
Visits will be by 30 minute appointment, held in a place designated and supervised by management with strict decontamination procedures after each appointment.
Maximum of 2 family members allowed to attend, no hugging or touching.

Sounds very tough but I share this info from a discussion I had on the weekend with a very well respected OCA village manager to give investors some assurance as to how seriously OCA are continuing to take this matter and the steps they're taking to protect vulnerable residents.

Disc: I bought more OCA and MET today.

Hopefully most of the residents can understand the reasoning for the strict measures...must be tough for some of them.

Looks like any opportunity to grab a few more OCA @73 or so may have slipped away. Great to see some upward momentum after about 3 weeks of heavy selling. Back into 8x by the end of the week, or have I just jinxed it?