TSK - TASK Group Holdings

[Beginnerguy]

'Execute for growth' must include the ASX listing to fund the growth

They said their current cash is enough to fund organic growth. A move to the ASX would be to raise capital for an acquisition. Otherwise, wouldn't appreciate the dilution.

[Checkmate]

Better update your DCF cmate

What was your valuations again?

$1.05 - $2.60
I am updating them currently.
I don't think the higher part of that range is too far off if they execute well.

[Cadalac123]

$1.05 - $3.50
I am updating them currently.
I don't think the higher part of that range is too far off if they execute well.

What’s your target revenue for fy21?

[Beginnerguy]

What’s your target revenue for fy21?

$33-35m seems achievable, does everyone agree?

[Baa_Baa]

$1.05 - $2.60
I am updating them currently.
I don't think the higher part of that range is too far off if they execute well.

That’s a big edit. Range between now or triple (revised but unfortunately quoted), to range between now or double. That’s fairly loose, plenty of wiggle room. You’ve got a tough audience on this site, some of us never predict future price, but if we did it’s fine tuned to a few cents range backed by evidence on what’s required to achieve it.

[Checkmate]

What’s your target revenue for fy21?

My Model has 3 scenarios (without probabilities)

Pessimistic Model i have Revenue growth at 10% @ around $28 million..

Neutral model, growth of 25% Revenue of $31million...

Optimistic growth of 40% and Revenue of $35 million

Optimistic is basically just continuing revenue growth at the average of last 4 years, and pessimistic is just a slow growth due to general economic troubles (basically a made up growth rate, i just don't think they will go backwards).

[Cadalac123]

My Model has 3 scenarios (without probabilities)

Pessimistic Model i have Revenue growth at 10% @ around $28 million..

Neutral model, growth of 25% Revenue of $31million...

Optimistic growth of 40% and Revenue of $35 million

Optimistic is basically just continuing revenue growth at the average of last 4 years, and pessimistic is just a slow growth due to general economic troubles (basically a made up growth rate, i just don't think they will go backwards).

Yeah fair enough
I’m not sure how revenue growth will pan out with the revenue model changing. Guess we’ll find out next half

[Checkmate]

That’s a big edit. Range between now or triple (revised but unfortunately quoted), to range between now or double. That’s fairly loose, plenty of wiggle room. You’ve got a tough audience on this site, some of us never predict future price, but if we did it’s fine tuned to a few cents range backed by evidence on what’s required to achieve it.

Thanks for your input, I'm trying my best...
I'll try be more thoughtful in my next analysis.
But as you know it is very hard and pretty much impossible to predict a future price of a share.... especially within a few cents!

My analysis was intended to have a pretty wide range.
The widest range is between the neutral and the optimistic $1.45-$2.60 (Optimistic was a fairly high growth rate each year for the next 4 years).

Between the pessimistic and neutral the range is only $1.05 - $1.40

The question is, how can you estimate a share price within a few cents and call it reliable? When no one knows the future... My analysis gives me a wide range where i believe if i buy shares at a margin of safety under the pessimistic value i will be pretty set for the future no matter what the price ends up (as long as it's trading at or above my lowest range).

[Checkmate]

Yeah fair enough
I’m not sure how revenue growth will pan out with the revenue model changing. Guess we’ll find out next half

True that, it is an unknown (at least for me).
But maybe it will be even better than my estimates!

[Justin]

Quote from plexure 2019 fy report :

“2019 has been Plexure Group’s (NZX:PLX) most successful year to date. The Company’s trading performance has improved dramatically: the net loss after tax reduced by 58% to $0.703m from FY18 but after removing the impact of the accounting treatment for the convertible note, the Company would have delivered a net profit after tax of $0.948m.”

Imo, $0.948m compared to fy2020 1m net profit, didn’t match with 50% increase of revenue from 16.9m to 25.3m.