Retirement village operators

[Mr Slothbear]

Drop in consents is a good sign for retirement villages, signals lower building costs and less competition for good skills in construction but still the same high needs based demand for villages

both SUM and RYM found the heady days of the last few years tough with the massive run up in building costs so I’m sure they will enjoy this new millieu

[Bjauck]

https://www.ft.com/content/c7e2863b-...d-bc8766545e97

Note: FT.com have made their coronavirus coverage free to access.

The US (Trump) and UK (Johnson’s special adviser Cummings) approach to both politics (and now Coronavirus) is based on lack of accountability, anarchy and chaos, followed by the rebuild of society based on unfettered capitalism. Specialised research is only heeded if politically expedient. Senior citizen care is one of the victims of the collateral damage of that approach. Actually it may be being charitable to say that it is “collateral” damage.

Fortunately the Australia and NZ approach differs from that of the UK and USA. Our Retirement living and care homes are in a different environment.

Item on the anarchy and chaos desired by the UK PM’s special adviser
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/07/o...gs-brexit.html

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...plan-democracy

[Beagle]

WOW - ASB offers 2 years fixed mortgage for just 2.69% ! I think that's quite stimulatory to the real estate market and helpful to the retirement company sector.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-...ectid=12333945

[Cyclical]

WOW - ASB offers 2 years fixed mortgage for just 2.69% ! I think that's quite stimulatory to the real estate market and helpful to the retirement company sector.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-...ectid=12333945

Far out, makes that 6% dividend yield over at OCA look more attractive by the minute

[Beagle]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU20...ay+23+May+2020

Interesting move by BNZ. All classic home loan rates under 3%. Five year fixed mortgage for 2.99%. That's got to be stimulatory to the real estate market. The ability to lock in for that long at 2.99% gives borrowers a lot of certainty.

[Cyclical]

Be interesting to see where interest rates bottom out. Since the GFC, it hasn't been hard to find sub 2% 2 year rates in the UK. Off the back of this event, is it too much to suggest we'll see rates in that vicinity here? For what it's worth, HSBC, who are often at the sharp end, service both markets. I'm waiting for them to ruffle some feathers with somewhere around 2.35-2.45. Expect asset prices are going to go crazy in a few years.

[ynot]

I think you may need more than just interest rates to stimulate real-estate growth. 20% unemployment won't help.

[Beagle]

I think you may need more than just interest rates to stimulate real-estate growth. 20% unemployment won't help.

We're nowhere near that yet. Treasury forecasts are for unemployment to max out at just on 10% but since then we're getting on top of this virus pretty well so far so maybe the economy can be kickstarted again...(Govt still have another $20 Billion up their sleeves from the budget and will print more if they have too).

Maybe we have a nice little bubble of 5 million down the track and then another 25 million from Australia. Maybe CER with Aust will finally get some real meaning ?

[ynot]

We're nowhere near that yet. Treasury forecasts are for unemployment to max out at just on 10% but since then we're getting on top of this virus pretty well so far so maybe the economy can be kickstarted again...(Govt still have another $20 Billion up their sleeves from the budget and will print more if they have too).

Maybe we have a nice little bubble of 5 million down the track and then another 25 million from Australia. Maybe CER with Aust will finally get some real meaning ?

Yes, 20 is probably stretching it. I reckon it will definitely get to 15%

[winner69]

Yes, 20 is probably stretching it. I reckon it will definitely get to 15%

NZ has got about 2.5 million beneficiaries at the moment

That's a large chunk of the population