AIR - Air NZ.

[winner69]

AIR might need to answer a few questions

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...stock-exchange

Still seems strange Cam goes around essentially pleading insolvency and no ‘official’ comment is made ....taking the mickey out of us I reckon.

[Waltzing]

well prehaps i need to reread everything and missed the rally.. more profitable than before with 5 million less customers? I really dont want to have cash lying around that wont make any money in that time frame which means yet again i will miss the AIR noise bleed rallies. Just like last time and then invest in them for dividend only to be warren buffetted again (air pocket out there somewhere, oil? hmm? carbon taxes)? IS MR B going to buy this... no i dont think he is...I do believe that this is price sensitive just like sky city news that is marked "Not price sensitive" and the stock rallies.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12338136

Fares from only $21 Woohoo, cheap fares with crappy service just like AIR's expensive fares with crappy service !!

Auckland to Queenstown for only $48...what a bargain !!!

[Jaa]

Air NZ's share price performance is not out of whack with other global airlines. Unlike Singapore and Cathay, Air NZ has an almost COVID free and profitable domestic market to fly in.

While historically Trans Tasman has not been very profitable for Air NZ this has not been true for the last 5 years or so where Air NZ has dominated its competitors and made good profits. Its most profitable long haul routes was always the USA routes, one of which is still in operation.

Throw in government wage subsidies, reduced aviation fees, higher prices, lower fuel costs, reparation and increased cargo flights/prices and it is pretty obvious some on here have been overly pessimistic.

Airline share price comparison, from 2020 low to post mid-March high (mostly yesterday's closing price).

Air NZ
L: 0.8 H: 1.64 = 105%

Air Asia
L: 0.5 H: 0.86 = 72%

American Airlines
L: 8.25 H: 18.59 = 125%

Cathay Pacific
L: 7.50 H: 9.39 = 25%

Delta
L: 17.51 H: 34.16 = 95%

Jet Blue
L: 6.61 H: 13.69 = 107%

Qantas
L: 2.03 H: 4.63 = 128%

Singapore Airlines
L: 3.53 H: 4:41 = 25%

Southwest Airlines
L: 22.46 H: 38.18 = 70%

United Airlines
L 17.80 H: 42.40 = 138%

Ignoring the two Asian airlines that lack domestic markets it would seem Air NZ's share price run still has a bit to go compared to other full service airlines. A 125% increase from the bottom would give $1.80, price target for Monday?

Share price closed at $1.79 but did hit a high of $1.825 so I shouldn't be too harsh on myself.

A lot of dribble on this thread since I posted the above but not one person engaged with my central point. Air NZ's share price has not gone up any more than comparable airlines overseas despite being in a materially better position (level 1 yo!). Guess those new investors been buying the shares of American Airlines, Qantas and United Airlines too.

[Snow Leopard]

....A lot of dribble on this thread....

except for you & winner69 with that Ben Graham twitter post.

PS. Making money on some airline stuff at the moment

[Beagle]

Enjoy your temporary unrealised gains while they last. The market in regard to airline stock won't stay in "Alice in Wonderland" for too long. Reality will bite and when it does it will bite very hard.

[Snow Leopard]

Enjoy your temporary unrealised gains while they last. The market in regard to airline stock won't stay in "Alice in Wonderland" for too long. Reality will bite and when it does it will bite very hard.

you need to let go of your emotions, old dog.

[Beagle]

you need to let go of your emotions, old dog.

Good to have some theatre and barking. This would be a really dull place if everyone curled up like a cat and hardly ever meowed

[Jaa]

Beagle you have had your nose in the weeds and missed the big changes.

" Flying 27% of last year's @FlyAirNZ passenger numbers which requires us to operate 51% of capacity." @CamWallace_NZ

What effect will the end of social distancing on flights have on Air NZ's load factor and profitability? I would say HUGE.

What effect will a COVID free NZ have on business and leisure travel demand? I would say HUGE.

Combined, Air NZ could have a profitable NZ domestic operation at something like 60-70% of its former capacity as early as July. Justifies a share price increase wouldn't you say?

[Beagle]

Late 2016 they had record profits of $663m, a business that was 100% intact, a really sound outlook and were paying twice a year dividends of circa 20 cps and the share price was $1.70.

Just think about that for a minute and compare that to the current situation. This year they will post a loss inclusive of extraordinary items of at least $663m. There will be no divideds this year or next and the future has never been more uncertain with Covid 19 rampant in most countries overseas. We are not materially closer to a vacine.
Domestic is such a small part of their business and JetStar are back on 1 July. They are basically doing NO international business.

To be clear here. What we are talking about is a complete chalk and cheese situation. They couldn't be more different. Nobody has any reliable way of predicting when they might be able to commence widespread international operations, it might be a completely different timetable to what AIR are expecting that they will get back to 70% by June 2022.

To further exacerbate shareholders medium term problems, analysts are cautioning that there is the very strong likelihood of the company needing to raise substantial capital in the near future.
I think Jarden's are on the money with their 12 months hence price target of 80 cents.
There are no big changes I have missed. The company itself has said they will need all of the Govt's $900m loan and will start drawing down on this within the next few months.
You don't need a Beagle's nose for trouble to see trouble coming here, its staring at you right in the face. Part of being a hungry dog is not just sniffing out the next big feed, its also sniffing out trouble ahead. Who wants to be kicked in the head ? Not me, but fill ya boots if you believe your own theories and good luck !!