AIR - Air NZ.

[Blue Skies]

The exuberance for this stock over on Sharsies is unbelievable.
Many seem to think it's a win win situation, either the SP will go up or the Govt will bail the airline & therefore the small investors out, with no understanding of the business or the Govt convertible loan or the dire predicament AIR is in.

A bit tragic to see posts like, 'I am so stoked, I invested money for the kids yesterday with air NZ & overnight they made $38, such fun'.
A loan voice posting a mild warning of the risk was met with a criticism of 'way to rain on a parade, yeesh.'

The awful thing is, on their first foray into shares, some of these new investors are going to get badly burnt & apart from losing money they possibly can't afford, be put off investing in anything other than property.

[Jaa]

Thanks for taking the time to post the link Beagle. For me no need to post the "Subscriber Content" rider. I can easily see its the Herald or simply try to access it to figure it out.

As a local investor you really should support local journalism and subscribe. Journalists keep companies, institutions and officials honest in ways that mere retail investors can't. Nothing like the fear of appearing in the paper to make people do the right thing. As an investor, you have the most to lose!

[Cadalac123]

The exuberance for this stock over on Sharsies is unbelievable.
Many seem to think it's a win win situation, either the SP will go up or the Govt will bail the airline & therefore the small investors out, with no understanding of the business or the Govt convertible loan or the dire predicament AIR is in.

A bit tragic to see posts like, 'I am so stoked, I invested money for the kids yesterday with air NZ & overnight they made $38, such fun'.
A loan voice posting a mild warning of the risk was met with a criticism of 'way to rain on a parade, yeesh.'

The awful thing is, on their first foray into shares, some of these new investors are going to get badly burnt & apart from losing money they possibly can't afford, be put off investing in anything other than property.

Ofcourse, they might actually luck out and do very well with a divi payer in a couple of years, and they'll look back and think any criticism was outright wrong against AIR.

The issue with trying to advise people new to investing is they simply won't listen since literally anyone can invest and the market is not well understood among the general public. They'll see stocks like AIR go up and say "i told you it would go up"! it's the exuberance of "easy money" that blinds a lot of people. A mate of mine was in a similar boat and I simply advised him about the risk and didn't say to buy or not buy but it looked like he got angry / irritated at me for even thinking against AIR going back up despite him never investing in stocks before.

Strange phenomenon. I was doing some dumb stuff when I started too to be fair, but I don't remember being this religious to AIR like some of the newer investors are. Maybe heard tales from when AIR last crashed and made a fortune for many.

The other thing that puzzles me is people thinking the return from AIR is anything spectacular. You could have made 3-4x the return on an actual growth stock with amazing future growth potential in this environment. Why on earth would you even take the risk of AIR over a stock like that?

[Beagle]

Its bewildering. Lot of money chasing "the recovery story" without a thought for the possible losses between now and when the airline is eventually profitable again in a few years time or the implications about what that means for a capital raise. I suspect many youngsters identify with the brand, know the Govt won't let them fail and are simply going with sentiment and momentum and what their mates on fakebook are doing. A balance sheet is something you use at a Pilates session right ?

[BIRMANBOY]

Give it a rest for gawds sake.... the SP movement is the only real information of any worth. Everything else is purely speculation and your posts have always been mostly that ...your speculation on what should occur because this is how you see it. No room for other alternative options or realities. Ridiculously overpriced has been your mantra for months and yet here we are ...close to $2. Perhaps you should make a move to question the NZX how this could be happening in direct contradiction to your speculation. Professional, or amateurs, makes no difference. All analysis is trumped by what the market wants. Repetitive posts questioning the validity of SP movement is just so sad (and boring). Sometimes best just to keep quiet and watch.

Pretty sure no one on here has suggested the Govt's loan might be converted to shares at just 5 cents before. From memory my estimated range has been 25 - 50 cents.
Jarden's fair value 12 months hence is 84 cents, Forsyth Barr $1.00 - average 92 cents less say 10 % risk adjusted expected return with no dividends so professional analysts are suggesting fair value is currently 83 cents. Red hot favourite that they would know better than the $1,400 sharsies crowd.

[Waltzing]

and it seems they dont want to listen to any other views from long term investors. I too lost the opportunity of making more money by not staying long on ZERO and ATM. But at the time they too were risky stocks not to mention FPH being subject to the USD which might not have responded as many experts said QE would cheapen the dollar. Still made some very good money on FPH but the company was trading all over the place. The share price of AIR in 5 year might still be here yet again. Most of the old hands in the US have not invested in this market since they did not imagine the FED would ever do a BOJ.

[bull....]

sharesis crowd must made a killing buying in around a dollar

[winner69]

TSA is number of passengers passing through security in the US.

Interesting eh

@carlquintinalla
The trendline of TSA passenger traffic implies a recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels by August. “We realize this sounds ludicrous. And we do not necessarily think what will happen. But the rising mobility of Americans suggest that industry experts may be too negative..”’- @fundstrat

[Quantitative Easing]

Anyone looking to exit this trade? Momentum running out...

[macduffy]

DISC: ive passed a few law and accounting exams, i know what arms length means. But this interest rate still seems in these times to be to high. I traded the GFC and we have extensive transaction software for this market but i would not trade this stock. There are plenty of stocks that have stochastic intervals that can be calculated. Its not what i call a trading stock but a very very risky gambling stock. SKC is a better trading stock then this.

The loans are priced for risk. As you state, AIR is a very very risky stock - even for a govt with access to our deep pockets!