sharetrader
Page 213 of 231 FirstFirst ... 113163203209210211212213214215216217223 ... LastLast
Results 2,121 to 2,130 of 2310
  1. #2121
    Guru
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Hamilton New Zealand.
    Posts
    4,251

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bjauck View Post
    The NZX capitalisation is very small for the size of our economy - so many overseas based companies operate here.

    Since the beginning of 2020, I wonder how much of the positive boost to the NZX index performance is due to just three big stocks: CNU, FPH and ATM.
    On Wall St indexes it is the FAANG

  2. #2122
    Guru
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Hamilton New Zealand.
    Posts
    4,251

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Cadalac123 View Post
    Hoop where did you learn your TA
    Before the mid 1990's I was a strict Fundie I originally viewed TA as "dark arts" The meaningless squiggly line method with a voodo type of self-fulfilling prophesy, if most people used TA and saw doom then bad things would happen. Back then a couple of "young turk" investors i occasionally bumped into down at the Pub had this"program thing" running on windows (before windows 95). It happened to be Metastock and these guys were making serious money out of it..Metastock was expensive back then and I bought a share of their program..That was the start of my journey to the "dark side"..Ridiculed by my other investing buddies and University teachers, I stayed with FA and dabbled with Metastock and made more money than them..until ..crash!!! my computer died and so did my Metastock..The "young turks' had finished Varsity and vanished so I started to do it manually and learn't TA from the ground floor upwards..Virtually self taught until early 2000 I then met up with TA Guru Phaedrus on Sharechat and later on Sharetrader forum.he was my Mentor so to speak..There were so many things I didn't know...
    Many years ago the Melbourne University had two major text books for their TA courses within their Business degree.
    1..Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets --John J.Murphy
    2..Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns --Thomas N Bulkowski.
    Learn these two books and you will be well on your way to be TA literate.
    A part of TA is Charting, this takes a while to understand..It may look easy but you have to develop an "eye" to see the chart's the correct way..this takes time and experience (viewing thousands of charts and their outcomes)
    Bulkowski has a website called The Pattern Site
    Last edited by Hoop; 01-07-2020 at 01:13 AM.

  3. #2123
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    681

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Before the mid 1990's I was a strict Fundie I originally viewed TA as "dark arts" The meaningless squiggly line method with a voodo type of self-fulfilling prophesy, if most people used TA and saw doom then bad things would happen. Back then a couple of "young turk" investors i occasionally bumped into down at the Pub had this"program thing" running on windows (before windows 95). It happened to be Metastock and these guys were making serious money out of it..Metastock was expensive back then and I bought a share of their program..That was the start of my journey to the "dark side"..Ridiculed by my other investing buddies and University teachers, I stayed with FA and dabbled with Metastock and made more money than them..until ..crash!!! my computer died and so did my Metastock..The "young turks' had finished Varsity and vanished so I started to do it manually and learn't TA from the ground floor upwards..Virtually self taught until early 2000 I then met up with TA Guru Phaedrus on Sharechat and later on Sharetrader forum.he was my Mentor so to speak..There were so many things I didn't know...
    Many years ago the Melbourne University had two major text books for their TA courses within their Business degree.
    1..Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets --John J.Murphy
    2..Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns --Thomas N Bulkowski.
    Learn these two books and you will be well on your way to be TA literate.
    A part of TA is Charting, this takes a while to understand..It may look easy but you have to develop an "eye" to see the chart's the correct way..this takes time and experience (viewing thousands of charts and their outcomes)
    Bulkowski has a website called The Pattern Site
    Appreciate it hoop

  4. #2124
    Membaa
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Paradise
    Posts
    5,292

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    A part of TA is Charting, this takes a while to understand..It may look easy but you have to develop an "eye" to see the chart's the correct way..this takes time and experience (viewing thousands of charts and their outcomes)
    Bulkowski has a website called The Pattern Site
    The really hard part is 'believing' ones analysis sufficiently to 'act' on it! Bulkowski is awesome, the bible of TA charts and patterns.

  5. #2125
    Guru
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Hamilton New Zealand.
    Posts
    4,251

    Default

    With all the media good news and the NZ overall economy (GDP) running at a very high growth rate (unsustainable?) it may come as a surprise for a few non-observers to find that the NZ stock market index (NZ50C) has fallen about 9% this year.

    Nothing unusual for those who know that the Stock market correlates poorly with the economy.
    As the recovering economy nears its mature part of the cycle (supply shortages, increased inflation, etc) the market gets a little wary as where too next and can fall back into a holding pattern (rectangle pattern).

    As you can see on the chart below we are seeing the NZ50 capital index hugging the weekly MA40 (equivalent to daily MA200) bear line. As long as the index doesn't distance itself too far from that MA40 it should be OK. Rectangle patterns are called continuation patterns, in other words when the pattern breaks the previous trend should resume.
    The chart also shows the Bollinger Bands (BB). The BB are squeezing up (see large brown arrows) indicating that the Rectangle Pattern could be nearing the end of its life cycle. Note though the Chart below is a 3 year period chart, so the indicating change could still be month or so away.

    The change...is it going to be up or down?

    TA is neutral.
    The Chart favours an upward breakout
    Stock Market theory says Inflation is the primary driver (positive correlation)...therefore rising inflation favours an upward breakout.
    Rising Interest Rates favours a downwards breakout.

    BUT!!!..the Covid crisis has turned Fundamental theory on it's head. The theories I had learnt over the decades aren't working very well

    I'm not sure which way the NZ50C index is going to go...I only know that the Chart is telling me something is going to change, warning me to be cautious, alert and focused..

    Your Guess?

    Last edited by Hoop; 02-07-2021 at 11:35 AM.

  6. #2126
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Posts
    880

    Default

    I feel you Hoop. A rise in inflation should lead to a rise in interest rates.

  7. #2127
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,738

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Jaa View Post
    I feel you Hoop. A rise in inflation should lead to a rise in interest rates.
    Maybe Hoop can elaborate on that statement

  8. #2128
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2021
    Location
    Transylvania
    Posts
    19

    Default

    Fascinating chart. Thanks

  9. #2129
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    9,497

    Default

    Hoop, I hear what you are saying ...

    ... however, not quite sure that the drop of the NZX50 is a useful indicator in this context. We should not forget that it was the dismal performance of a small number of big NZX 50 companies like ATM (coming down from speculative heights to reality), FPH (recovering from the Covid price bubble), SML (paying for their non diversification policy) and the Gentailers (coming down from their safe haven bubble) which brought the index down. Not sure we can read into that too much about the general status of the economy?

    For what it is worth - my NZX portfolio had this year a healthy gain, but admittedly - I don't own any of above companies (well, I bought recently a handful FPH).

    I agree however that caution is always appropriate when one is in uncharted territory, though personally would I think that the reserve banks are in the meantime so used to print more cheap money, that this will (together with all the planned infrastructure projects) keep the economy still going for a while. But yes - interest rates will be interesting, and markets don't seem to be sure where they are going either. No question however - a crash will come, and it might well be big.

    Still remembering the good old times when our governments and economies owed a pittance compared to today and we thought already that this might be a problem. Well - some day it will be.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  10. #2130
    Guru
    Join Date
    Feb 2020
    Location
    Nelson
    Posts
    3,687

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    No question however - a crash will come, and it might well be big.
    Good time to add leverage so you win either way.

    Stay invested -> win.
    Drop in value -> add leverage and buy more.

    Though with interest rates rising it may turn this idea on it's head slightly.
    Last edited by Panda-NZ-; 03-07-2021 at 05:42 PM.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •