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30-07-2020, 04:28 PM
#17851
Originally Posted by winner69
Even getting back to 2019 levels in 2027 is a big guess
My considered guess is never
As I heard today - So when does the world go back to normal? Sorry to say, but it already did. This is it. This is the new normal.
Spending endless hours jam packed in like sardines in a narrow aluminium tube has never looked this unappealing and I can't help but wonder if the romance of travel ever comes back ? Might not ever get to Switzerland ? Just as well we have Queenstown which is arguably just as good....and I can drive there.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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30-07-2020, 05:43 PM
#17852
Originally Posted by Beagle
Spending endless hours jam packed in like sardines in a narrow aluminium tube has never looked this unappealing and I can't help but wonder if the romance of travel ever comes back ? Might not ever get to Switzerland ? Just as well we have Queenstown which is arguably just as good....and I can drive there.
Good time to reread Talebs Antifragile
all about how some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure , risk, and uncertainty. Maybe get a winner for the future - doubt whether airlines will be winners
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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30-07-2020, 06:49 PM
#17853
Originally Posted by Zaphod
Long-term, for the most part, things will not remain this way. If the virus continues to mutate becoming more infectious but less virulent, people actively take precautions to slow the spread, and we can inoculate against it, then we'll slowly return to our former ways. That's just human nature.
As unsustainable, extractive and even banal as tourism had gotten in so many place around the world pre-COVID I suspect you are right Zaphod. Could even be a tourism surge from people wanting to make up for lost time. A bit like the baby boom after WWII.
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30-07-2020, 07:19 PM
#17854
Originally Posted by Jaa
As unsustainable, extractive and even banal as tourism had gotten in so many place around the world pre-COVID I suspect you are right Zaphod. Could even be a tourism surge from people wanting to make up for lost time. A bit like the baby boom after WWII.
Currently I do see pent up demand, it really depends on duration, it changes outlook and habits the longer it goes on however its also will change the economics...in the industry and disposable income of individuals, the masses matter than those who can just afford at any price.
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30-07-2020, 07:45 PM
#17855
Originally Posted by Raz
Currently I do see pent up demand, it really depends on duration, it changes outlook and habits the longer it goes on however its also will change the economics...in the industry and disposable income of individuals, the masses matter than those who can just afford at any price.
True, even Air NZ has been surprised by the pent up demand for domestic flights and that was after only 2-3 months of serious restrictions.
Disposable incomes may decline but traveling likely will never be cheaper. Plenty of excess capacity in airlines, hotels, attractions, restaurants etc.
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31-07-2020, 07:01 AM
#17856
Originally Posted by Jaa
True, even Air NZ has been surprised by the pent up demand for domestic flights and that was after only 2-3 months of serious restrictions.
Disposable incomes may decline but traveling likely will never be cheaper. Plenty of excess capacity in airlines, hotels, attractions, restaurants etc.
Yes, and the business’s you mention will adjust their margins to attract people back, returning prices to ‘normal’ at a later date when people ARE back.
So initially a window of very cheap travel which keen travellers will snap up.
Last edited by biker; 31-07-2020 at 07:03 AM.
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05-08-2020, 04:44 AM
#17857
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05-08-2020, 08:23 AM
#17858
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07-08-2020, 03:52 PM
#17859
The time has come for civil servants in the Ministry of Transport instead of sipping tea and nibbling biscuits give some stark but realistic advice to the incoming government about the future of Cullen Airlines.
Every ten years or so Cullen Airlines stalls financially and needs an injection of taxpayers money to survive.
A policy of allowing Cullen Airlines to crash and burn next time is politicly untenable. There is no way our elected representatives would accept travelling to Wellington on a bus.
The realpolitik aim should be to limit the dip into taxpayers pockets next time, and there will be a next time.
I propose the the Government announce a single isle aircraft only rescue policy. Operation of wide body jets is solely at the creditors and shareholders risk. This allows support for domestic and Trans Tasman operations. To those that gasp and mutter words like tourism and flag carrier I say international cargo is carried OK by non Kiwi shipping companies why not air travel.
Boop bopp de do
Marilyn
Diamonds are a girls best friend.
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07-08-2020, 04:07 PM
#17860
Originally Posted by iceman
Pretty good effort in making PPE gear look good but there's no way to make death look sexy no matter who pays !
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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