Purchase time of day and SP

[Ferg]

Hello

Old thread I know but I was wondering about this the other day - in particular the day of the week. I'm not a statistician but I looked at the NZX50 daily movements and whether it went up, down or was flat for each day from 2003-2020. Take from this what you will but I'm not sure it will change anything I do, although it appears that for 2020 Tuesdays are up more than they are down (up 73% of days, down 27% of days) and that Fridays are down more often than they are up.

https://imgur.com/a/cxotrIC

NZX50
Daily Movement 2016	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Overall
Down	38%	37%	52%	33%	43%	41%
Flat	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Up	62%	63%	48%	67%	57%	59%
Daily Movement 2017	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Overall
Down	37%	41%	44%	37%	47%	41%
Flat	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Up	63%	59%	56%	63%	53%	59%
Daily Movement 2018	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Overall
Down	55%	49%	44%	46%	35%	46%
Flat	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Up	45%	51%	56%	54%	65%	54%
Daily Movement 2019	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Overall
Down	45%	42%	45%	38%	37%	41%
Flat	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Up	55%	58%	55%	62%	63%	59%
Daily Movement 2020	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Overall
Down	48%	27%	47%	64%	52%	47%
Flat	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Up	52%	73%	53%	36%	48%	53%
Daily Movement 2003-2020	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Overall
Down	43%	45%	43%	45%	44%	44%
Flat	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Up	57%	55%	57%	55%	56%	56%

[Snoopy]

Hello

Old thread I know but I was wondering about this the other day - in particular the day of the week. I'm not a statistician but I looked at the NZX50 daily movements and whether it went up, down or was flat for each day from 2003-2020. Take from this what you will but I'm not sure it will change anything I do, although it appears that for 2020 Tuesdays are up more than they are down (up 73% of days, down 27% of days) and that Fridays are down more often than they are up.

https://imgur.com/a/cxotrIC

Hi Ferg and welcome to the forum. I don't see too much mystery in your observations. The NZX seems quite nervous and NZ investors are always looking over their shoulder to get their lead from the DOW. The statistical sell off on Friday is because NZ investors are worried some sell down might occur over the weekend in the USA while our market is closed and they want their money out of the market to de-risk that possibility. On Monday morning NZ time, markets in the USA are still closed. But by Tuesday, the US markets are again trading and with no crisis materialising, NZ investors feel happy enough to pile back into the NZX market for FOMO. That's how I see it anyway.

SNOOPY

[Ferg]

Thanks for the welcome. Interesting thoughts for 2020 but it appears the trend for 2020 is not matching 2019 where Fridays for 2019 went up more than down, and Fridays also exceeded the numbers for Tuesdays in 2019. Hence I'm not reading too much into the numbers - I would expect to see randomness and my untrained eye tells me it is (I'm not a statistician). An interesting exercise nonetheless.

P.S. I have been reading a lot of your posts. Keep up the good work!