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17-08-2020, 09:57 AM
#9091
Originally Posted by allfromacell
Yes indeed ....that's why RR-NUPPCA will look pretty healthy
Last edited by winner69; 17-08-2020 at 09:59 AM.
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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17-08-2020, 10:00 AM
#9092
Originally Posted by winner69
Bad eh -- others to follow (esp that Arvida
For those who have bull on Ignore here's what he posted from the NZ Herald
Coronavirus has influenced valuations of one retirement giant's properties to such an extent that last year's gains in its national property portfolio have been turned into falls and the bottom-line profit has been reduced to nearly zero.
ARV CEO hovering up ARV shares it has been disclosed... dropped nearly a quarter of a million bucks buying more...
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...076/328495.pdf
Maybe ARV isn't quite as badly impacted as sum others? A vote of confidence in ARV at the very least... meanwhile I think the CEO of sum other listed operators was cashing out big time a few months back...? Anyhow, I'll stop banging on about ARV!
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17-08-2020, 10:01 AM
#9093
Last edited by Beagle; 17-08-2020 at 10:06 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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17-08-2020, 10:11 AM
#9094
Originally Posted by Beagle
I dispute that...there is strong growth in one part of the business, went from $500m to $655m, can you guess what it is ?
Development margins and IFRS profit under serious pressure when just last week the REINZ said medium house prices in N.Z. were up 15% year on year to July 2020. Go figure. Just as well they took substantial support from the Govt's wage subsidy program.
Disc: No position.
And Oceania has strong debt growth as well ....did I get that answer right?
Last edited by winner69; 17-08-2020 at 10:29 AM.
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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17-08-2020, 10:47 AM
#9095
Originally Posted by winner69
And Oceania has strong debt growth as well ....did I get that answer right?
True that but OCA's cash flow was up 11.3% and SUM's was down. From memory OCA's development margin was about 33% and SUM's now 22% and yet SUM is on nearly double OCA's forward underlying earnings multiple despite not being able to sell what they "deliver", (a euphemistic term if ever there was one), each year for several years now. Hmmm On a relative basis none of this makes any sense to me which is why I remain out.
But...the market clearly loves the result so obviously there is something I am not seeing...but then again SUM is presently priced at $7.76 which is right on the very upper limit on the very well established 40-60% price relativity of RYM which is currently $12.80.
Coutta would argue his GOLD STANDARD suggests SUM is not worth more than half a RYM share and would argue fair value using this benchmark is $12.80 / 2 = $6.40 and I would agree. I therefore think SUM is a SELL at the current price.
Last edited by Beagle; 17-08-2020 at 12:17 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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17-08-2020, 01:51 PM
#9096
Do your SUMs'
SUMmer may be over.
Dr JPG
Terms of trade for elderly.
Payment MUST be made before EXPIRY.
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17-08-2020, 02:16 PM
#9097
Originally Posted by Getty
Do your SUMs'
SUMmer may be over.
Dr JPG
Terms of trade for elderly.
Payment MUST be made before EXPIRY.
I don't know what that is all about...… but, bear in mind when looking at SUM's result that the property valuation is just one valuer's conservative opinion. As we look through annual increases in these values to underlying profit, so we should do likewise here. Unless, of course, we take the view that these are permanent falls, in which case - rush for the exits!
Disc: Continuing to hold.
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17-08-2020, 02:29 PM
#9098
Originally Posted by macduffy
I don't know what that is all about...
but, bear in mind when looking at SUM's result that the property valuation is just one valuer's conservative opinion. As we look through annual increases in these values to underlying profit, so we should do likewise here. Unless, of course, we take the view that these are permanent falls, in which case - rush for the exits!
Disc: Continuing to hold.
Agree, it's good company and like the others have taken a conservative valuation on property which hits the books but is not really real as it's not realised. People go on about how important 'underlying earnings' are, the company also stresses that (and they beat their upper end projection) and then people ignore it and focus on IFRS when it suits them. I reckon a lot of punters will see only that underlying profit is a 'beat forecast' and there's a dividend and be happy holding. Enough for me anyway, happy holder.
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17-08-2020, 02:45 PM
#9099
History is with you.
Kiwi's have done very well from property, hence it being a favourite choice.
I also think the listed rest home sector will receive investment from those who have managed their own rentals, but feel they are getting on a bit, and will sell out to transfer into this sector, for ready liquidity should they, or family need it.
How long that trend continues, is anyone's guess.
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17-08-2020, 04:24 PM
#9100
NTA is $4.91. Does it deserve to be trading at a 58% premium to NTA ?, that as they say is the $64,000 question.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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