Black Monday

[BlackPeter]

- because that asset class is where the real irrationality lives.

I think you are right there. Currently some NZ real-estate is selling at crazy prices. I'm sure this will correct.

Not quite so sure about your correction forecast. Real Estate market is a simple formula with high demand and low supply. Last time I checked they didn't make any more land, but the returnees are just piling up at our borders. I think in the last 12 months it was an addition of more than 70k (mainly) returning Kiwis increasing the NZ population. That's nearly 30k more houses required (given our average house occupation rate) we need. The government promised 10k per year but delivered only a few hundred. Not quite enough, if you see what I mean.

As long as we need a house, lots of ugly boarded fences for privacy and a eight to tenth of an acre for every 2.4 additional people, the upwards spiral for real estate prices will continue. Still another 1 million Kiwis abroad who might want to return (many do) - and then there is a basically unlimited pool of Australians who may and might come as well.

[JBmurc]

Not quite so sure about your correction forecast. Real Estate market is a simple formula with high demand and low supply. Last time I checked they didn't make any more land, but the returnees are just piling up at our borders. I think in the last 12 months it was an addition of more than 70k (mainly) returning Kiwis increasing the NZ population. That's nearly 30k more houses required (given our average house occupation rate) we need. The government promised 10k per year but delivered only a few hundred. Not quite enough, if you see what I mean.

As long as we need a house, lots of ugly boarded fences for privacy and a eight to tenth of an acre for every 2.4 additional people, the upwards spiral for real estate prices will continue. Still another 1 million Kiwis abroad who might want to return (many do) - and then there is a basically unlimited pool of Australians who may and might come as well.

Don't forget many other nations that see little old NZ as a great retirement spot or place to run their business from >>>

Going of R.E NZ -25736 res listings for sale sections,houses,units etc (many double listed) - rentals 25736

So yeah we are well short of property ... I'm sure if we opened are borders to US-Europe will could have those filled within short timeframe ...world is awash in FEAR

[ynot]

Not quite so sure about your correction forecast. Real Estate market is a simple formula with high demand and low supply. Last time I checked they didn't make any more land, but the returnees are just piling up at our borders. I think in the last 12 months it was an addition of more than 70k (mainly) returning Kiwis increasing the NZ population. That's nearly 30k more houses required (given our average house occupation rate) we need. The government promised 10k per year but delivered only a few hundred. Not quite enough, if you see what I mean.

As long as we need a house, lots of ugly boarded fences for privacy and a eight to tenth of an acre for every 2.4 additional people, the upwards spiral for real estate prices will continue. Still another 1 million Kiwis abroad who might want to return (many do) - and then there is a basically unlimited pool of Australians who may and might come as well.

I hear what you are saying, and real-estate is the only investment game in town when it comes to nz.
We know some kiwis are returning from overseas but overall immigration numbers are well down since Covid. Govt publish these figures, they are well down this year. Overall numbers are negative every month since April. Remember our boarders are closed to all except returning kiwis.
Then we need to factor in rising unemployment next year, this will apply mortgage stress to those effected. Middle of next year should tell us where housing market is headed.

https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19...er-statistics/

[Joshuatree]

Int thanks.Far more leaving than arriving in that timeframe.

https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19...er-statistics/

[bull....]

final fed meeting this week before the US election so this will add to a interesting week shaping up from a technical standpoint also. watching 3330 on the s&p500 and the quarterly bars

[Biscuit]

Int thanks.Far more leaving than arriving in that timeframe.

https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19...er-statistics/

Passenger stats probably don't tell you much about immigration/emigration?

[BlackPeter]

Int thanks.Far more leaving than arriving in that timeframe.

https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19...er-statistics/

Interesting - isn't it? However not consistent with the data from Immigration New Zealand (admittedly, not exactly the same timeframe - the data below are 1 July 2019 to 30 June 2020):

Annual
Year ended June 2020 (compared with year ended June 2019) provisional estimates were:

migrant arrivals – 153,900 (± 1,500), up 8.7 percent
migrant departures – 74,500 (± 600), down 16.6 percent
annual net migration gain – 79,400 (± 1,600), up from 52,300 (± 200).
For migrant arrivals in the June 2020 year, New Zealand citizens were the largest group with 45,500 (± 700) arrivals.

from: https://www.stats.govt.nz/informatio...tion-june-2020

Not quite sure i can explain the difference ... but an immigration gain of nearly 80,000 according to stats NZ does not seem to fit with a loss as your customs numbers seem to imply.

[BlackPeter]

Interesting - isn't it? However not consistent with the data from Immigration New Zealand (admittedly, not exactly the same timeframe - the data below are 1 July 2019 to 30 June 2020):



from: https://www.stats.govt.nz/informatio...tion-june-2020

Not quite sure i can explain the difference ... but an immigration gain of nearly 80,000 according to stats NZ does not seem to fit with a loss as your customs numbers seem to imply.

On a second thought ....

Customs numbers obviously include lots of leaving tourists and short term stayers, while immigration numbers only count (I suppose) residents and long term stayers.

This might be an explanation for the difference. Now - who is going to push the house prices up? It is not the tourists, isn't it?

[NeverQuestion]

On a second thought ....

Customs numbers obviously include lots of leaving tourists and short term stayers, while immigration numbers only count (I suppose) residents and long term stayers.

This might be an explanation for the difference. Now - who is going to push the house prices up? It is not the tourists, isn't it?

That's easy! First Home Buyers with another Government backed Free cash scheme that looks great! But does nothing to help housing affordability because everyone ups the price by the same amount because they know the buyer is "Good for it"

Reserve Bank has already dropped the LVRs so that have done their bit already!

[petty]

Hi BP,

At a quick glance significant proportion of the 80,000 net gain is due to gains made pre March 2020. Keep in mind 80,000 net gain was for the year to June '20 so includes a chunk or pre-covid net inflows that contribute the most. The months July 19 to Feb 20 have a roughly monthly gain of between 6-10,000 people. However if you take April May and June combined the net gain is only 1590 across those three months. Average of 530 a month gain. If we say the rest of the year to June 2021 follows a similar pattern we will have a net gain of 6360 for the year end compared with 80000 the year just been. Drastic if you ask me but maybe Ive been working all day and have missed something (likely).