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18-09-2020, 02:02 PM
#16981
Currently only ~36,000 shares on offer for under 80c.
Only ~69,000 for sale in total.
Price needs to go a fair bit higher to entice people to start selling some shares this close to The Drill...
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18-09-2020, 02:34 PM
#16982
Member
Assuming a successful drill at Ironbark what are people's predictions as to the share price?
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18-09-2020, 02:38 PM
#16983
How does $6 sound?.
I read a report that said NZO shareprice would multiply by a factor of 11.
At that stage the SP was 55c.
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18-09-2020, 02:39 PM
#16984
Originally Posted by mistaTea
Currently only ~36,000 shares on offer for under 80c.
Only ~69,000 for sale in total.
Price needs to go a fair bit higher to entice people to start selling some shares this close to The Drill...
Still if you think about it, totally irrational whether its this close to "The Drill" or 2 months away or 3 months away. "The Drill" was always going to happen, the timing is irrelevant. What is important is the outcome. If the NZO shareprice gets anywhere over 75 cents before "The Drill" I will be offloading a whole bunch I purchased under 60 cents for exactly this phenomena known as "The Drill" enthusiasm.
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18-09-2020, 02:40 PM
#16985
Originally Posted by Getty
How does $6 sound?.
I read a report that said NZO shareprice would multiply by a factor of 11.
At that stage the SP was 55c.
Andrew Jefferies was hinting at about $5 being possible or thereabouts if successful.
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18-09-2020, 02:45 PM
#16986
Originally Posted by blackcap
Still if you think about it, totally irrational whether its this close to "The Drill" or 2 months away or 3 months away. "The Drill" was always going to happen, the timing is irrelevant. What is important is the outcome. If the NZO shareprice gets anywhere over 75 cents before "The Drill" I will be offloading a whole bunch I purchased under 60 cents for exactly this phenomena known as "The Drill" enthusiasm.
Drill & Thrill
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18-09-2020, 03:46 PM
#16987
Member
Originally Posted by CD_CHCH
Assuming a successful drill at Ironbark what are people's predictions as to the share price?
Last October, Aussie analyst Peter Strachan estimated $6.51 for NZO and $1.31 for CUE if Ironbark is successful.
But what happens when/if they get a good strike? Won't they then need substantial money to develop the field? Banks aren't lending for fossil fuel projects (although the size of this, plus big-name BP might change their minds, perhaps)
Dare I mention a Capital Raise? I know some sh-ers here are also invested in NTL, including some big holders, including me (NOT a big holder!) And CRs there have been SP killers. Different companies, different situations, but a CR can drag down the share price. Perhaps if the SP is high enough and the glittering prize of Ironbark full of gas exciting enough, then a CR will be a different beast here.
What are people's ideas about selling down some shares before the result? I've heard some already here. I'm thinking of selling about a quarter of my NZO and CUE if the price gets high enough before the result comes in. I hope I don't have to sell NZO for under a dollar, but let's wait and see what happens.
Good luck everyone - exciting times ahead!
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18-09-2020, 03:49 PM
#16988
Member
Originally Posted by blackcap
Still if you think about it, totally irrational whether its this close to "The Drill" or 2 months away or 3 months away.
When have markets ever been rational, Blackcap??
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18-09-2020, 04:22 PM
#16989
Originally Posted by Lion
What are people's ideas about selling down some shares before the result? I've heard some already here. I'm thinking of selling about a quarter of my NZO and CUE if the price gets high enough before the result comes in. I hope I don't have to sell NZO for under a dollar, but let's wait and see what happens.
Good luck everyone - exciting times ahead!
The equation will be different for everyone based on their appetite for risk, what they think the upside is, how likely it is that the upside will be realised and what their average buy in price is.
But, in principle, if the markets present an opportunity to take some money off the table ahead of the results it makes sense for an investor to do so.
A guaranteed protection of your down side is more important than a possible upside that may or may not eventuate (no matter how great that upside might be).
That’s how I look at it anyway.
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18-09-2020, 05:52 PM
#16990
Member
Originally Posted by mistaTea
The equation will be different for everyone based on their appetite for risk, what they think the upside is, how likely it is that the upside will be realised and what their average buy in price is.
But, in principle, if the markets present an opportunity to take some money off the table ahead of the results it makes sense for an investor to do so.
A guaranteed protection of your down side is more important than a possible upside that may or may not eventuate (no matter how great that upside might be).
ThatÂ’s how I look at it anyway.
Yes, quite, mistaTea, I agree with all that. People will have different opinions and needs and appetite for risk.
I was in NZO (then NOG) for Mangatoa and Hector. I think they abandoned Mangatoa before drilling, but that was potentially a huge Taranaki gas field worth billions, they said. Then Hector was pretty huge too and I don't think I took any risk off the table for that one. With hindsight, maybe I should have.
There's a philosophy for handling this situation called BESBS - buy early, sell before spud (I had to look it up) That might suit some. Wouldn't one presume the SP would rise during drilling though?
'The drill of the century' coming up, eh?
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