OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

That annualised $72m forF21 is still quite a way short of $85m which Earl ‘promised’ for F20 a couple of years ago (his bonus depended on that but no doubt they’ve changed the bonus scheme now)

Always gunna be?

[Beagle]

Rome wasn't built in a day

[Entrep]

Mr Beagle what are you top 5 stocks that pay a dividend on the NZX?

I have assumed OCA, GNE and HGH

[Maverick]

I`ll take your bait, Beagle.
My thoughts on the ASM was it was just as expected, there were definitely highlights but anyone serious about this sector already would have anticipate them such as;
-Sales up 26% on the PCP 3 months.
-Sales prices NOT reducing despite the CBRE reduced expectations 4 months ago.
-”Sands” sales are very strong and ahead of where they need to be.
-”Meadow bank” sales on track but not as strong as “Sands”. (there were actually 49 apartment deliveries of stage 4 . Earl`s number of 64 is incorrect so the fact they have only sold 34 so far is as per expectations)


One factor which has exceeded my own anticipation is how well the care suits are selling. They are selling 50% faster than they need to in order to replenish every 2.5 years.

Surely that was you Winner at Q & A time asking why “the story” isn't being told better? I liked Earl`s answer that we have passed the point of inflection, 3 new large developments are now nearing maturity and basically the profits will start growing. Imo that is really the only thing that people will actually believe that this complicated story is actually working. By the way folks that will happen in a VERY solid way next report- late January 2021.

Beagle, my underlying profit expectation this year is a bit loose. There is a large “one off” profit to estimate for the sales deferred from last FY to this FY because of covid sales delays. I'm expecting about a $6m “one off” straight on the bottom line for this. Basically profit differed from last FY because of Covid.

So I'm expecting an underlying profit (annualised) of about 57-60m FY2021 PLUS this $6m one off. I just cannot see for the life of me how a huge jump in profit cannot happen (without another massive disruptive event). We know enough history and numbers now to just add it all up with very few assumptions left.

As far as the share price appreciation goes , I'm very surprised with so much mounting evidence of the model's success that this company hasn't been seriously rerated by now. I do concede one does still need to dig a little bit still to see it but surely analysts out there must have bothered by now. With 3 years of history behind it, in my view, it has now been substantially de risked. Pretty soon it will be so clear that a drunk monkey will see “the story”.

There were no surprises from the meeting and nor should there be. OCA has a clear plan and executes it in a very pragmatic way. It was basically all good news and I see it as only a short time now before the market finally agrees.

[Beagle]

"Pretty soon it will be so clear that a drunk monkey will see the story". Surely that's the quote of the day
Disc: I topped up some more today because I think many market participants are drunk monkey's that need things handed to them on a silver platter before they can understand. Only 4 months to go until that happens and we are likely to see significant gains in my opinion. Patient puppies should be fed very well

[Beagle]

Mr Beagle what are you top 5 stocks that pay a dividend on the NZX?

I have assumed OCA, GNE and HGH

I presume by you, you mean your ? The stocks I am holding for gross yield inclusive of imputation credits are HLG (~ 11%) HGH ( ~ 8%) GNE ( ~ 8%), WHS ( ~ 11% ), and ARG, (net PIE yield 4.8%, ~ 7% for gross for 33% taxpayers).
I'm mostly holding OCA for capital growth but the ~ 5% expected yield is now high for where interest rates are so people are being paid handsomely to enjoy the growth in the years ahead, (which is not the case with MET, SUM or RYM where average yield is less than half that).

I'm also holding BRM (8% net yield) and KFLWF, Kingfish warrants that I will convert to shares in March 2021 to earn 8% net.
I'm not holding any Marlin shares or warrants at this point as I feel both are overpriced for the NTA and I expect extreme volatility in the US markets leading into the election and that's right about where the Marlin warrants need to be exercised.

PAZ on the unlisted market is very exciting.

[Waltzing]

The only thing that could under cut MR M's model of profit is employment costs.

"extreme volatility in the US markets leading into the election "

and well after as it goes to the highest court and Trump refuses to move .. barricades himself inside.

[winner69]

Lot of discussion re moral / ethical behaviour of company / directors accepting government support when they make big profits

So new Oceania finance guy working hard to get heaps of corporate welfare ...hmm

We as shareholders should be pleased ...got to get every penny we can, from wherever.

A business model dependent on the whims of govt policy?

[Leftfield]

Lot of discussion re moral ...So new Oceania finance guy working hard to get heaps of corporate welfare ...hmm.....A business model dependent on the whims of govt policy?

Crikey there was a lot of postings by you and Beagle yesterday....... did something happen!?

Pretty gaverage result IMHO, and I always get a tab concerned when companies decide to change their balance date. Makes YOY comparisons that much more fuzzy. You got to wonder why?

Still a small rare div/yield hold for me, and I won't be rushing out to buy more.

[winner69]

Crikey there was a lot of postings by you and Beagle yesterday....... did something happen!?

Pretty gaverage result IMHO, and I always get a tab concerned when companies decide to change their balance date. Makes YOY comparisons that much more fuzzy. You got to wonder why?

Still a small rare div/yield hold for me, and I won't be rushing out to buy more.

Changing balance date often seen as a red flag and can muddy the waters for a few years ....but in these days of normalisation, covid look through and annualisation etc etc who cares.

At least they not doing the 15 month year and comparing it to a 12 month year trick ....(Comvita tried that trick)