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23-09-2020, 02:22 PM
#18171
ABC Australia headline;
"Airlines could shed 95 per cent of their workforce......"
I expect a similar decimation of airline jobs this side of the ditch.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-...ction=business
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Diamonds are a girls best friend.
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23-09-2020, 02:34 PM
#18172
Originally Posted by Hoop
...Cyclical stocks have a grow/shrink growth cycle they can shrink very fast during bad times but need time to regrow and history shows the economic early recovery phase is not a great time for cyclical company's share prices (e.g AIR during the long post GFC economic recovery stage [2010-2012])...Vaccine or no vaccine it bums on seats that counts and when the effects of the recession start to bite many of the bums may feel healthier but a lot poorer and postpone their travel plans...again lots of variables in play creating many alternate scenario's..
One big positive is..if these cyclical stocks (AIR being one) manage to survive and bottom out during the late recession/early recovery phase, the economic late recovery phase they became excellent stocks for the investors with "steel balls" to "back up the truck" and buy into...
Great post Hoop and thank you for that very salient reminder. As you astutely remind us the post GFC recovery phase for AIR was excruciatingly slow and this is very likely to repeat when a safe and effective vaccine is widely available. Timing regarding backing up the truck is extremely important with cyclical's.
Something I think all intelligent people knew already. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...ses-discovered Despite all the public relations talk of assurances that flying is safe due to hospital grade air filtration, that's of absolutely no help whatsoever if someone seated close to you on the plane has Covid.
Last edited by Beagle; 23-09-2020 at 04:46 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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24-09-2020, 02:26 PM
#18173
Originally Posted by Jaa
Good move, there has been no documented spread of COVID onboard an aircraft in NZ and very few around the world.
One thing we have learnt in this pandemic is ventilation and length of exposure are key factors, airplanes completely cycle the air in the cabin every 4 mins. The masks and phased boarding/deplaning offer added layers of protection.
Unfair for the airlines to always bare the financial cost for everyone. As RTM says if you are still not convinced, buy two seats.
There has been now. Excerp from today's ministry of health statement. (Confirmation the three infected passengers were sitting close to the Covid infected person).
"Also on the flight was the man who tested positive for Covid-19 at the weekend whose virus is thought to have had a rare three-week incubation period.
The latest cases were seated near the infected man". Source https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12367569
One would presume seeing that this charter flight happened very recently everyone on that plane was wearing a mask so it would appear masks are not much help either.
Last edited by Beagle; 24-09-2020 at 02:30 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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24-09-2020, 03:16 PM
#18174
Originally Posted by Beagle
There has been now. Excerp from today's ministry of health statement. (Confirmation the three infected passengers were sitting close to the Covid infected person).
" Also on the flight was the man who tested positive for Covid-19 at the weekend whose virus is thought to have had a rare three-week incubation period.
The latest cases were seated near the infected man". Source https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12367569
One would presume seeing that this charter flight happened very recently everyone on that plane was wearing a mask so it would appear masks are not much help either.
Bit of a worry eh beagle
And then the big gathering at Taupo with people from around the country
Wonder what the parachute guy is thinking?
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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24-09-2020, 03:40 PM
#18175
Originally Posted by winner69
Bit of a worry eh beagle
And then the big gathering at Taupo with people from around the country
Wonder what the parachute guy is thinking?
I imagine he would be suffering from very severe anxiety. Was actually thinking of driving down to Taupo...thought if I took my car it would be a nice safe place for a little mini break. Hmmm.
Anyway it appears the charm offensive has commenced. I'm expecting many press releases about how well they're coping during Covid before the capital raise
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12367425
Last edited by Beagle; 24-09-2020 at 04:29 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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25-09-2020, 09:08 AM
#18176
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...September+2020
Oh my goodness...the world is ending if the relationship between the All Blacks and AIR breaks down...whatever are we to do ?
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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25-09-2020, 02:33 PM
#18177
AIR cap raise broadcast globally. 2021 time frame.
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25-09-2020, 04:04 PM
#18178
Originally Posted by Waltzingironmansinlgescul
AIR cap raise broadcast globally. 2021 time frame.
They know it must be done by June 2021 as the loan will be almost exhausted by then and the auditors will not be able to sign off FY21's books as a going concern if there's no capital raise.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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25-09-2020, 04:50 PM
#18179
Much no doubt to your disappointment Beagle, seems Air NZ is in no hurry to raise capital. Longer they leave it, the more certainty for all concerned.
Of the $75m a month cash burn roughly only a third is operational with a third capital expenditure and another third various one off restructuring costs (fuel hedges, FX hedges, redundancies etc). The third part will naturally reduce over time and I am sure they will find ways to reduce the other two components too.
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25-09-2020, 05:28 PM
#18180
They better hurry before it becomes obvious that on top of the cash burn is another ~ $60m a month in depreciation as well as a prospect of another few hundred million to be written down on the 777-300's. Better conceal that till next year books after the capital raise eh Jaa
Good they announced their intentions clearly so that you and your sharsies mates can save your pennies up for the issue and can't say you were ambushed. Save up hard mate, I am sure it will be an "outstanding" investment opportunity
Last edited by Beagle; 25-09-2020 at 05:30 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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