Geo Political Risk

[GTM 3442]

You can find the odd insight here. . .

https://www.lawfareblog.com/

[Davexl]

'If you make China the enemy, China will be the enemy': Beijing's fresh threat to Australia

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/if...18-p56fqs.html

[greater fool]

'If you make China the enemy, China will be the enemy': Beijing's fresh threat to Australia

"The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said the Australian government makes "sound decisions" in our national interest and in accordance
with our values and open democratic processes.
We are a liberal democratic society with a free media and a parliamentary democracy, where elected members and media are entitled to freely
express their views," the department said in a statement.
The Australian government is always ready to talk directly in a constructive fashion about Australia’s relationship with China, including about our
differences, and to do so directly between our political leaders."

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/if...18-p56fqs.html

......with a free media.............
https://www.smh.com.au/national/aust...15-p55c6a.html

".......the government is still pursuing barrister Bernard Collaery in the courts over claimed breaches of intelligence secrecy
laws in relation to an operation in Dili in 2004, when the Howard government spied on and bugged Timor-Leste officials’ private
discussions about maritime boundary negotiations – to give Australia the upper hand."


https://www.theguardian.com/media/20...committee-told

"The committee focused on two bills: the proposed changes to national security laws, which could see journalists and
whistleblowers jailed for up to 20 years and the foreign influence transparency scheme bill, which would require
those who under take political, campaigning or lobbying activities “on behalf of foreign principals” to sign up to
a public register. Federal police admit to accessing journalist's metadata without a warrant.
The national security reforms would increase tenfold the maximum penalty for anyone who communicates or “deals with”
information which could potentially “cause harm to Australia’s interests,” where that information is obtained via
a government official without authorisation.
The government says the new laws are about countering the influence of foreign states such as China and Russia,
and the outgoing attorney general, George Brandis, has said the new laws have been necessitated by an unprecedented
level of interference in Australian politics by foreign actors.
But the proposal includes major changes to secrecy laws that could potentially be applied to journalists and
organisations such as WikiLeaks by including information that prejudices international relations “in any way” or
damages relations between the federal government and a state."

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/progr...il-journalists

"Australia's biggest news media companies have united to fight new national security laws that could criminalise
reporters and their sources. Peter Greste - who knows all about being jailed for journalism - tells Mediawatch
New Zealand should take notice too."


..........talk directly in a constructive fashion about Australia’s relationship with China.
https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/quad-i...y-foundations/

"Beijing lays claim to some islands in the East China sea to which some other Asian nations also lay claim.
But, then, so too does Taiwan. The total area of the islands claimed by Taiwan but contested by other Asian
nations is far greater than that of those claimed by Beijing.
This was in effect also the 2016 conclusion of the UN tribunal set up to consider rival claims. And if we go back
into history, or to the US-brokered 1951 and ’52 peace treaties with Japan, both Chinas can claim some legal basis
for their claims.
Beijing’s opposition to Japan’s claim to the Senkaku Islands in the East China sea is also seen as proof of aggressiveness.
But Beijing does not claim the islands for itself; it does so on behalf of Taiwan, whose claim has a strong historic and
geographic basis. In fact, it was so strong that under pressure from the Taiwan lobby in the US, Washington refused
Japan’s claim to sovereignty over the Senkaku islands when the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa were returned to Japan in 1971.
The US only recognizes Japan’s administrative rights.
Even the name of the islands is not Japanese. Senkaku is a translation of the name Pinnacle Islands given by British explorers
in the area in the 18th century. The Chinese name – Diaoyutai or Fishing Platform – goes back much farther.
Elsewhere, it is hard to find examples of China’s alleged aggressiveness. There is much reference to the Sino-Indian frontier
war of 1962 and Indian claims of Chinese aggressive pressure ever since.

Apart from the fertile imaginations of the Quad members, have we seen proof of Beijing’s alleged aggressiveness?
If there is any belligerent talk coming out of Beijing today the most likely cause is the belligerent attitudes of the Quad members."

[Davexl]

The Weakness of President Xi within China, the bungled handling of the Covid virus and a plan to deal to his hard-line faction
(Source withheld)

Excerpts:

Naturally, while internally Xi has been shown to be weak and even culpable for the bungled management of WuHan virus in the first stage, Xi has only international stage that he could show his own strength to shore up his own position.

I personally am happy for Xi to remain president of China for his hard-line approach will continue to alienate China from the rest of the world. This will lead to more self-reliance policies and measures within the economies of the west and regions outside China.

1) President Xi was a compromise choice for the presidency between the two main factions of CCP, both, btw, are moderate factions.

2) In 2013, Bao Xilai's wife murdered a British national and Bao was arrested for corruption and purged from CCP. Bao was a senior Politburo member and had ambition to be the president of China. He happened to have led a small but hard-line faction in Chonqing where he was the mayor- Chongqing is a huge city with the status of a province.

3) Xi had no power base within CCP moderate factions. After Bao's fall, Xi basically inherited Bao's hardline faction. Since then, Xi's policies have been reflections of this hard-line faction.

4) Former president Jiang and the current premier are the leaders of the largest Shanghai faction in CCP. Former President Hu and his premier Wen are the leaders of the other main moderate faction.

5) In 1996, Jiang let the hardline faction have their way firing missiles near Taiwan only to show the weakness of Chinese military, and, hence the folly of the hard-line faction within CCP.PLA.

6) Xi's policies and measures internally and externally have been parts of the struggle with the two main moderate factions.

7) COVID-19 of course was Xi's mishandling in the first place. He despatched the premier to WuHan in early February. But the premier knew it was a trap so his people cleverly issued an old photo of him supposedly working hard on the COVID-19. A few days later, he quit the responsibility of managing COVID-19 after the photo was 'found' to have been a 7 year old photo.

8) For the next few weeks, Xi could not force any of the Politburo members or any minsters to WuHan to take charge. The mayor of WuHan was left to swim or sink.

9) Only till the end of March, Xi sent his own protege, the health minister, to take charge of WuHan virus matter. Before this, it was clear that Xi and his protege were trying to protect themselves.

10) In mid April, the health minister came back to BeiJing from WuHan. Within 2 weeks, he was arrested for breaching party disciplines. That is, he has been purged from CCP.

11) For Xi to lose his own protege, it could only mean one or both of two things. Xi had lost so much power due to COVID-19 mishandling by himself and his protege. that he could not protect his own protege. Or Xi was wiling to sacrifice his own protege to save his own skin. Either way, Xi's position within CCP itself was and remains very much insecure.

12) Naturally, while internally Xi has been shown to be weak and even culpable for the bungled management of WuHan virus in the first stage, Xi has only international stage that he could show his own strength to shore up his own position.

13) Attacking China for mishandling COVID-19 in a way has given Xi breathing space for Xi has been exploiting it to show his toughness against foreign interventions.

14) The HK matter, also, in a way, has allowed Xi to show his hard-line faction's way is the only way to manage HK.

15) Due to COVID-19 impacting badly on domestic economy, the Chinese premier has advocated policies and measures that often are openly repudiated by Xi with alternative directives. Traditionally, domestic economy is the domain of the premier.

16) Xi is now riding a tiger that he could not jump off. The two main moderate factions would never take him back (he had been a member of the main moderate Shanghai faction as with his own father who had been in charge of the creation of ShenZen special economic zone just over the border from HK). Given the COVID-19 rampage in US, it is obvious why Xi's daughter has gone back to US where she has finished her university studies already.

17) I personally am happy for Xi to remain president of China for his hard-line approach will continue to alienate China from the rest of the world. This will lead to more self-reliance policies and measures within the economies of the west and regions outside China.

18) On the other hand, if the west wants to have a more moderate leadership within CCP/PLA/China and Helen a less aggressive CCP/PLA, there is one simple way to approach this.

19) Stop giving President Xi access to international forums. BRIC counties, if possible, should stop conveying. India and Brazil should be persuaded for such. ASEAN nations should stop their invitations of China and hence Xi to its meetings. ASEAN nations could be persuaded by US. Australia and EU for doing this. APAC also should cease to operate to stop Xi from getting platform in conveying his messages.

20) All western democracies as well as Korea, Japan and SE Asia nations should not invite Xi or refuse Xi visiting their countries, full stop.

21) Further, sending back all Chinese diplomats that have air unwarranted hostile remarks against western countries back to China and blacklist them from being accepted for other posts (diplomatic, trade or commercial enterprises) in the west.

22) By isolating/excluding Xi from international forums, Xi could not use international stages to shore up his own position in the struggles within CCP.

23) BTW, by not taking phone calls from Aussie ministers is similar to my suggestions of excluding Xi from international forums, but against Australia instead.

24) Also ban all Chinese social sites in the west across the board. Ban Global Times (CCP's mouth piece in the west) from operating within the west altogether.

25) CCTV's international arms have YouTube channels. As long as China has banned YouTube, its own government and state owned enterprises should not be allowed to have channels on YouTube either. (I would miss some of the good programmes, but some are nothing but with CCP/PLA propaganda, lol)

26) To fight Xi, we could do nothing in the west and let the 2 main moderate factions do their own works to bring down Xi and his hard-line faction. Or we can also be hard-line against Xi himself too.

[Marilyn Munroe]

'If you make China the enemy, China will be the enemy': Beijing's fresh threat to Australia

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/if...18-p56fqs.html

President Xi should be mindful the last ruthless dictator who thought he could give the democracies a licking ended up dead in a bunker with a bullet through his brain.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[greater fool]

The Weakness of President Xi within China, the bungled handling of the Covid virus and a plan to deal to his hardline faction
(Source witheld)

Excerpt:
I personally am happy for Xi to remain president of China for his hardline approach will continue to alienate China from the rest of the world. This will lead to more self-reliance policies and measures within the economies of the west and regions outside China.
<< other content removed>>>

From the language/style of the source I think this maybe from a draft notes of a last report for a Tour of Duty due to end soon ( July3 2014~ Dec30 2020)
Look forward to reading final report if it gets published.
Replacement researcher needed do you think?
Apply here: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/china-f...plication-form

[greater fool]

https://www.smh.com.au/national/chin...11-p56dln.html

"China is following a belligerent foreign policy which singles out countries such as Australia for punishment, as examples to other
governments. Australia’s "offence"? Simply put: passing laws aimed at protecting the political system against Chinese Communist Party
interference, launching freedom of navigation exercises in the international waters of the South China Sea through which the bulk of
Australian shipping passes and daring to ask the Xi government to examine the origins of the COVID-19 outbreak that unleashed the
devastating global pandemic. ............"

"Xi is taking China backwards, restoring foreign affairs policies from the two most repressive periods of the Mao era — 1949 to 1952,
when Mao’s policies squeezed out foreign businesses, journalists and missionaries to create “New China”, and the Cultural Revolution
years from 1966 to 1969, when Mao launched drastic purges against foreign influence in Chinese society.
Xi is a great admirer of Mao and even styles his clothing and posture to look like him. Xi Jinping was a young activist in the Cultural
Revolution years and joined the CCP in 1971. One of Xi Jinping’s earliest speeches as leader echoed many Mao phrases and framing including
the boast that China would soon have the "dominant position” in world affairs."

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...turnbull-urges

"But Turnbull rejected such calls, encouraging his successors in government to “stand firm”.
“The one thing you cannot do with Beijing or any other superpower is become sycophantic or to demonstrate that you will just buckle
whenever the pressure is ratcheted up, you get no thanks for it – you get less respect,” said Turnbull, who was speaking at a
Peterson Institute for International Economics webinar on Friday."

[greater fool]

The Weakness of President Xi within China, the bungled handling of the Covid virus and a plan to deal to his hardline faction
(Source witheld)
Excerpts:

24) Also ban all Chinese social sites in the west across the board. Ban Global Times (CCP's mouth piece in the west) from operating within the west altogether.

25) CCTV's international arms have YouTube channels. As long as China has banned YouTube, its own government and state owned enterprises should not be allowed to have channels on YouTube either. (I would miss some of the good programmes, but some are nothing but with CCP/PLA propaganda, lol)

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...na-tv-channel/

"Taiwan’s broadcast regulator has ordered the closure of one of the island’s most ardently pro-China cable news networks following a monthslong battle over journalistic standards and freedom of the press."

[Davexl]

How a 'vast ocean of goodwill' between China and Australia turned sour

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/19/a...hnk/index.html

[greater fool]

https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/the-fu...ough-on-china/

"As a matter of fact, being “tough” on China has proved disastrous for the US and its allies. The trade war against China has increased
America’s trade deficits, eroded manufacturing, put farmers at financial risk and undermined economic growth.

Meanwhile, appointing itself as US “deputy sheriff” has landed Australia in a recession. Japan and South Korea are at risk of being
targeted by Chinese economic retaliation. Cozying up to the US will make it harder for India to recover from an 11% economic contraction
and not gaining an inch in its border dispute with China.

Indeed, the only “sin” China has committed is that its development model is too successful, elevating the economy to No 2 in nominal GDP
terms and the biggest in purchasing power parity terms within a generation.China was a “good guy” when it was producing labor-intensive
or low-technology products such as garments. It only became the world’s “greatest threat” when it was able to produce high-technology goods
that were competitive with those produced in the US. "