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Originally Posted by Beagle
Pro forma underlying EBITDA $21.3m $23.0m $23.7m
Pre NZ IFRS 16 pro forma underlying EBITDA $8.2m $10.2m $11.0m
Implied EV (including lease liabilities) / pro forma
underlying EBITDA 16.5x 15.2x 14.7x
Implied EV / Pre NZ IFRS 16 pro forma underlying EBITDA 20.3x 16.3x 15.1x
AFFO per Share – cents 1.78 1.67 1.99
Dividend per Share – cents at 50% of AFFO for FY2021 0.83 1.00
*Implied dividend yield – cash dividend declared 1.04% 1.25%
*Implied dividend yield – gross dividend declared 1.44% 1.73%
First question is what is AFFO - I really don't have the time today to get into this but the metrics do not appear compelling at first glance.
What I have learned over many years of investing in this sector is there is very little money in providing care services...the money is in the property development and especially the property churn.
Beagle ..AFFO
From other document -
AFFO, which is a cash proxy used by Radius Care to determine the level of dividend it can support.
And is defined as -
available funds from operations, which is calculated from Pre-NZ IFRS 16 Pro forma Underlying NPAT by removing pre-NZ IFRS 16 depreciation and amortisation and instead including maintenance capital expenditure
Last edited by winner69; 10-12-2020 at 12:12 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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I don't even get why the put it on the sharemarket if there is no trading. How can one buy if if no one is selling?? I shall watch from my chair..
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Originally Posted by Greekwatchdog
I don't even get why the put it on the sharemarket if there is no trading. How can one buy if if no one is selling?? I shall watch from my chair..
Agreed - why float / list it if the available shares put on the market at time of listing are next to nothing ..
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Originally Posted by winner69
Beagle ..AFFO
From other document -
AFFO, which is a cash proxy used by Radius Care to determine the level of dividend it can support.
And is defined as -
available funds from operations, which is calculated from Pre-NZ IFRS 16 Pro forma Underlying NPAT by removing pre-NZ IFRS 16 depreciation and amortisation and instead including maintenance capital expenditure
Thanks mate so if I am not mistaken nowhere in those metrics is the most commonly used, (for this sector) underlying eps and they are making up a new term to describe their distributable profit.
My opinion - There is very little money in providing late stage care.
Last edited by Beagle; 10-12-2020 at 01:26 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Originally Posted by nztx
Agreed - why float / list it if the available shares put on the market at time of listing are next to nothing ..
Ah, but there will be shares available, once the demand has been established!
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http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...739/337080.pdf
On a really, really quick look it appears:-
Net assets are 22.9m = 13 cps. At 80 cents they are saying the shares are worth 6.15 times NTA
EPS = approx 2.38 cps At 80 cents they are saying a fair forward PE = 33.6 (Higher than RYM) I am basing eps on 2 x half year net profit to 30 September 2020.
The directors seem to have taken great lengths not to disclose eps and especially underlying eps...but to be fair I haven't been prepared to invest much time in this.
Dividend yield of about 1.6%
I think somewhere around 20-25 cents based on earnings or 13 cents based on NTA is fair value. To be quite blunt about it I think the directors seem to be in fantasy land.
I am sure there's many other aspects to this but they are so far out of whack with where I see fair value I am not going to waste any more time on this.
People should note that interest bearing debt of $24.8m is higher than net assets of $22.9m. Highly leveraged, more than six times NTA and on a higher PE than RYM...thanks for the opportunity but I wouldn't touch this with a 40 foot barge pole.
Last edited by Beagle; 10-12-2020 at 06:21 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Member
Originally Posted by Onion
Not much chance of gauging price if no one is selling!
Sellers are likely to come from this block, see page 11 of the Listing Profile:
6 The other shareholders in Radius Care comprise (a) shareholders that received Shares as a result of a series of in-specie distributions of Shares undertaken by funds managed by Knox Investment Partners prior to listing, (b) Radius Care staff members and (c) Harmos Horton Lusk Limited, which was issued 250,000 Shares in consideration for the provision of $200,000 worth of legal services to Radius Care in connection with the listing.
Looking at the Companies Office records these shares haven't as yet been transferred to those parties, so not yet available to be put on the market.
Last edited by Wiremu; 10-12-2020 at 03:01 PM.
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Have I missed something, RAD is not showing up on ASB Securities? Apologies if a dumb question.
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