Contact Energy - CEN Chart

[Snoopy]

Te Mihi has a design output of 166MW. FY2014 is six years ago. So I am going to allow for build inflation of 4% per year, about twice the inflation target, since that date to get FY2020 construction costs.

$623m x (1.04)^6 = $788m

The amount of construction capital available would suggest Contact can build its next geothermal station larger than Te Mihi.

166MW x($1,074m / $788m) = 226MW

If Contact constructed such a station today, how would that affect the size of their generation portfolio?

Contact Energy Hydro	Station Generation Capacity	Notes	Contact Energy Geothermal	Station Generation Capacity	Notes
Clyde	464MW	Commissioned FY1992	Ohaaki	48MW	Commissioned FY1989
Roxburgh	320MW	Commissioned 1956	Te Huaka	28MW	Commissioned FY2010
			Wairakei	145MW	Commissioned 1958, Modified FY2005
			Poihipi	65MW	Commissioned FY1997
			Te Mihi	166MW	Commissioned FY2014
Total	784MW		Total	452MW
Effective Capacity Factor	0.514		Effective Capacity Factor	0.940
Total Operationally Adjusted	403MW		Total Operationally Adjusted	425MW

Adding a new geothermal station of 226MW that would operate at 94% availability would lift Contacts expected operating generating capacity by:

(226MW x 0.94) / (403MW + 425MW) = +25.7%

SNOOPY