ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[HKG2301]

i dont think ill short cover today

Well done for your short position, bull.... seems you called it.

However, not nice to gloat - especially when you know that certain people on this thread are losing their shirts...

[nztx]

Im not in a rush to hop out. The news is good enough for me to stay in for the long haul

similar stance here

may even look at a bit of averaging down to smooth things over at the right levels

[bull....]

Well done for your short position, bull.... seems you called it.

However, not nice to gloat - especially when you know that certain people on this thread are losing their shirts...

i dont gloat , ive lost too many times before to realize that but i do call it as i see it

[Balance]

Second downgrade.

Amazing how the ‘downgrades’ come in threes come true so often.

Credibility of management & directors - gone.

[Ronaldthump]

Time to top up and average down. Over 50% down from ATH

[Beagle]

I have called their 2H forecast a crock for a long time and what do you know...it is !!
At mid point the second half is forecast to be down from $1,100m to just $800m and a massive reduction in gross profit margin to boot, WOW !! (the margin contraction is worse than I would have thought).
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...22/financials/
My preliminary calculations have sales at $1,475m against weighted average market expectations of $1,806m
EBITDA of $405m against market expectations of $550m
Net profit after tax at $292m against market expectations of $389m
eps of 39.8 cps against market expectations of 53 cps.

Truly remarkable that some evidence of such a brutal downgrade wasn't known at the time of the annual meeting held very recently, although some commentators including this dog sniffed the B.S. and did notice the widespread proliferation of caveats they mentioned around their forecast at annual meeting time which to this dog at least, (as noted on here) read like a VERY serious warning sign.

Fair value now eps is shrinking ?...who knows but I would not be at all surprised to see a test of $8 and I would never touch this falling knife until the bottom is confirmed to be in.

The second downgrade is confirmed. I am expecting at least 1 more downgrade before the end of the year, possibly 2 more.

Kudos to the old wily dog Balance. Downgrades almost always comes in 3's eh mate. You're a legend mate !

[Hello123]

I have called their 2H forecast a crock for a long time and what do you know...it is !!
At mid point the second half is forecast to be down from $1,100m to just $800m and a massive reduction in gross profit margin to boot, WOW !! (the margin contraction is worse than I would have thought).
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...22/financials/
My preliminary calculations have sales at $1,475m against weighted average market expectations of $1,806m
EBITDA of $405m against market expectations of $550m
Net profit after tax at $292m against market expectations of $389m
eps of 39.8 cps against market expectations of 53 cps.

Truly remarkable that some evidence of such a brutal downgrade wasn't known at the time of the annual meeting held very recently, although some commentators including this dog sniffed the B.S. and did notice the widespread proliferation of caveats they mentioned around their forecast at annual meeting time which to this dog at least, (as noted on here) read like a VERY serious warning sign.

Fair value now eps is shrinking ?...who knows but I would never touch this falling knife until the bottom is confirmed to be in.

The second downgrade is confirmed. I am expecting at least 1 more downgrade before the end of the year, possibly 2 more.

So you expect possibly 2 more downgrades before end of 21?

[winner69]

How do you get 30%...?

Sales 670 AT 27% $181 ebita v 263 pcp

ebitda margin down nearly 6% points

[bull....]

covid has probably helped sales of local chinese brands as china being largely covid free becomes an attraction for local people worried about overseas goods. that might explain some of the sales decline

[trader_jackson]

All very mysterious... I remember being shouted out the room back in August on results day... share price back then was over $20... might be half of that when trading resumes.

ATM now half it was at results day not that long ago... $10.49 share price for a company with 40c EPS... still a PE of 26 odd... quite high for a company now with unknown growth (if any) in the short to medium term.