OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

**clearasmud** · 10-01-2021, 03:07 PM

Originally Posted by x2rider

Thanks Maverick. The UBS analysis is pretty in depth and a great read with lots of industry comparisons to gauge against. With UBS having a 32.5% under value and a target of value at $2.21 I'll be sticking around to watch the show over the next few years

So where is the UBS report?

**winner69** · 10-01-2021, 03:32 PM

Originally Posted by clearasmud

So where is the UBS report?

Probably need to be a UBS client to get it

Somebody posted that 12 month target was $1.50 (sort of implying a $1.35/$1.40 valuation today) ..... hope they wrong

They apparently have a downside valuation of 80 cents but upside of about $1.90

**clearasmud** · 10-01-2021, 03:52 PM

Thanks Winner

**x2rider** · 10-01-2021, 04:23 PM

Just do a Google search for UBS Oceania and you'll find it
https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/healthcare/nzx-oca/oceania-healthcare-shares

**BlackPeter** · 10-01-2021, 05:23 PM

Originally Posted by x2rider

It will be interesting to see where the gains come from . This more a real-estate stock than a retirement play

Wrong - it is not "more a real estate stock" - it IS A REAL ESTATE STOCK, just as all the other retirement stocks as well

:

Nobody makes serious money just with looking after and caring for people.

Retirement stocks are basically REITS ...

**macduffy** · 10-01-2021, 08:05 PM

Exactly, BlackPeter.

**Baa_Baa** · 10-01-2021, 08:51 PM

Originally Posted by winner69

Probably need to be a UBS client to get it

Somebody posted that 12 month target was $1.50 (sort of implying a $1.35/$1.40 valuation today) ..... hope they wrong

They apparently have a downside valuation of 80 cents but upside of about $1.90

Read the whole report, quite repetitive I thought, but overall very positive and a good hold for many years.

That said I think their SP projections are conservative, tempered by the risks they cite (which are well into the report somewhere near the end). I would prefer risks to be tempered by measures of likelihood and consequence. If they did that then it might help understand why they temper the SP targets the way they did.

Anyway I’m very happy to have concluded my accumulation and unlikely to buy any more unless Covid 2 happens or some other extreme event that presents OCA at under NTA.

Gltah, this is for the bottom drawer long hold. Nice to be already well in profit, who would’ve thought 2020 would be the business model catalyst and market event to accelerate a long hold.

There’s no guessing the market, considered response is the only option.

**Curly** · 10-01-2021, 10:26 PM

Originally Posted by x2rider

Thanks Maverick. The UBS analysis is pretty in depth and a great read with lots of industry comparisons to gauge against. With UBS having a 32.5% under value and a target of value at $2.21 I'll be sticking around to watch the show over the next few years

Liking the target value of $2.21. Post result rerate hopefully. What about dividend? Hope OCA can get back to 2.3 - 2.4????