ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Ruby]

ATM is blaming almost all the decline in sales on the daigou situation.

The question you should be asking imo : is that really the case or is the daigou situation being used conveniently by management to cover up for other issues?

The aggressive selling of shares by management and directors will be topmost in the mind of many a wary investor for a while yet.

Sounds like a conspiracy theory of trump proportions ;-) ;-)

[Ruby]

Sounds like a conspiracy theory of trump proportions ;-) ;-)

Speaking of conspiracies...over on HC there is some interesting data on who's buying / selling opposite to what they are espousing to their clients...

[LEMON]

I've said that over and over again that ATM is overvalued, but then again and again the market has "proven me wrong", so as any sensible person would think - Hey Mr Market disagrees with what I believe, maybe I'm wrong and Mr Market is right.

So I buckled and followed the crowd, and here I am.

That also is called gambling?

You're betting on whether the market is right or wrong!

Rather than is the company good or bad, you even said you believe it was overvalued but still gambled.

[Skeleton]

ATM is blaming almost all the decline in sales on the daigou situation.

The question you should be asking imo : is that really the case or is the daigou situation being used conveniently by management to cover up for other issues?

The aggressive selling of shares by management and directors will be topmost in the mind of many a wary investor for a while yet.

I totally agree with you.
Daigou channel has been operating in both NZ and AUS for years and there is no significant revenue increased when Daigou raised.
But once you think about the reasons that they lost revenue, there aren't better excuse than blaming everything on lack of Daigou channel.

[Akane]

That also is called gambling?

You're betting on whether the market is right or wrong!

Rather than is the company good or bad, you even said you believe it was overvalued but still gambled.

All stocks are a gamble TBH, as nobody can predict the future and we as an individual can do very little to influence the outcome.

To answer your question, yes I gambled believing that I was wrong, and it turns out I was wrong about myself being wrong (if my argument holds true).

2 wrongs didn't make a right

[Balance]

Sounds like a conspiracy theory of trump proportions ;-) ;-)

You have a lot to learn about how corporates and the stock markets work imo but such is life.

[Ruby]

Conspiracy theory worthy of Trump himself?

Now how would anyone (especially on HC!) know (millions of shares no less) who is buying given the way that trades are done on the ASX & NZX?

Conspiracies theories abound in here aye lol...

[Balance]

Conspiracies theories abound in here aye lol...

That is a fact - that nobody would know who is buying or selling any stock on the market, save the buyer and seller given the way the ASX & NZX operate.

You have a lot to learn and it's up to you whether to learn or not imo.

[Ruby]

That is a fact - that nobody would know who is buying or selling any stock on the market, save the buyer and seller given the way the ASX & NZX operate.

You have a lot to learn and it's up to you whether to learn or not imo.

Just joking with ya mate ;-)

[invest]

There's a lot of misconception about how the daigou trade works, and therefore the impact on ATM.
Daigous were already experiencing disruption pre-covid as platforms became more dominant, and increasingly focused on disintermediation to capture margin.
COVID accelerated the demise of daigous, with lockdowns resulting in supply chain disruption.

Alibaba-Tmall/Taobao, JD, VIP, Red and numerous other e-commerce platforms have been working hard to bridge brand owners directly with consumers. Brand owners are increasingly operating flagship stores eg https://a2nutrition.world.tmall.com/
Whereas previously daigous would purchase product and sell on platforms like Taobao (the NZ equivalent is Trademe).
In the short term, there's a lot of disruption as Chinese consumers move away from the daigous/stores they have previously bought from to buying direct from brand owner or platforms. Unlike Trademe, Alibaba also buys stock direct from brand owners to resell on their own platforms.
Chinese consumers tend to trust the store they have always bought from, especially for highly sensitive items. Therefore the short term disruption is severe.
In the long term, ATM should be able to extract higher margins by minimising margin for middlemen, which is traditionally very high in China. ATM won't get the full benefit of disintermediation as platforms will have stronger bargaining power.