Power shares

[Snoopy]

The best outcome for the power industry, and for the planet globally would be for Tiwai top continue indefinitely. But no private business could give that assurance. Thus taking everything into account I think today's announcement is about the best that could be expected under current circumstances. But how will this affect the share price trajectories of the gentailers?

Here is my take on where I think Mr Market should take the prices of the 'Big 4' gentailers with today's announcement.

1/ Meridian Energy Given the large rise in share price of late, I expect the price of MEL to fall. Today's deal will, at best, lock in today's level's of profitability. So for Mr Market, it will be a case of 'buy the rumour' 'sell the fact'.

2/ Contact Energy This should be enough to 'green light' the new Tauhara baseload geothermal station. Good news, although with the share price having risen so much already, CEN should be flat going forwards on today's news.

3/ Mercury Energy This is great news because stable power demand in the south will mean Mercury's new Turitea windfarm will allow the increased use of Waikato River system as a 'battery' in the North. Water flow can therefore be better optimised for profit. Price to rise.

4/ Genesis Energy Possibly the end of Unit 5 at Huntly (to be replaced by Contact's Tauhara) and maybe the end of the Rankine units as well as the Waikato river becomes the North's new battery. A serious erosion in the company's generation base. Share price to fall.

SNOOPY

[CatO'Tonic]

Hopefully Southland takes notice of the 'deadline' this time, instead of everyone sticking their heads in the sand and then moaning when the inevitable occurs. There really seems to be an attitude down there of 'we're too big to fail and it is the responsibility of the rest of nz to subsidise our main employer '. Having worked at the smelter as a contractor, I have doubts about the employability of a lot of the old hands. I frequently came across NZAS people who took pride in doing as little as possible. They're not all like that of course but it is an attitude that is well known to the rest of Southland's engineering sector. It's not a work ethic that will be attractive to many modern employers.

[Tomtom]

Yet Mr. Market has not responded either way to this news after a period of rapid pricing action in prior days? To me it seems very suspicious when there is no reaction to "new" information being announced.

Perhaps thid warrants a closer look by the FMA into this to make sure there is no 'Spanish business' going on.

[ratkin]

Yet Mr. Market has not responded either way to this news after a period of rapid pricing action in prior days? To me it seems very suspicious when there is no reaction to "new" information being announced.

Perhaps thid warrants a closer look by the FMA into this to make sure there is no 'Spanish business' going on.

I was wondering in the last week or so if it was related to Tiwai, seems a lot of people knew. No way those Ten percent days were just a coincidence.

[JSwan]

I was wondering in the last week or so if it was related to Tiwai, seems a lot of people knew. No way those Ten percent days were just a coincidence.

Investment banks/analysts often get information directly from the company to analyse before the public, so no surprises that information was leaked or known before the public knew about it.

[Snoopy]

I was wondering in the last week or so if it was related to Tiwai, seems a lot of people knew. No way those Ten percent days were just a coincidence.

Investment banks/analysts often get information directly from the company to analyse before the public, so no surprises that information was leaked or known before the public knew about it.

I think you guys are just being too cynical. Those 10% days were Blackrock pumping up their Global Clean Energy ETF.

It was obvious the political will was there to do a deal with Rio Tinto. It was also obvious that Meridian was going to do a deal. Today all that was announced was 'a deal'. We got no details of what that deal was. There was no surprise about anything that was announced today. Maybe that is why Mr Market was not surprised?

SNOOPY

[Baa_Baa]

I think you guys are just being too cynical. Those 10% days were Blackrock pumping up their sustainable energy fund.

It was obvious the political will was there to do a deal with Rio Tinto. It was also obvious that Meridian was going to do a deal. Today all that was announced was 'a deal'. We got no details of what that deal was. There was no surprise about anything that was announced today. Maybe that is why Mr Market was not surprised?

SNOOPY

Perhaps but not meaning to be cynical, none of the gentailers are worth anything near where they’re priced at.

When returns on invested capital imply a forward eye watering PE in no growth assets, you know the future is about being first at the exit when the tide turns.

Tears will follow soon enough. Imo the tide just turned. Caveat emptor

[dreamcatcher]

After all that Blackrock already owns 14.34% of Contact probably 20% before anyone wakes up saying wow how overpriced

[peat]

Here is my take on where I think Mr Market should take the prices of the 'Big 4' gentailers with today's announcement.

1/ Meridian Energy Given the large rise in share price of late, I expect the price of MEL to fall. Today's deal will, at best, lock in today's level's of profitability. So for Mr Market, it will be a case of 'buy the rumour' 'sell the fact'.

2/ Contact Energy This should be enough to 'green light' the new Tauhara baseload geothermal station. Good news, although with the share price having risen so much already, CEN should be flat going forwards on today's news.

3/ Mercury Energy This is great news because stable power demand in the south will mean Mercury's new Turitea windfarm will allow the increased use of Waikato River system as a 'battery' in the North. Water flow can therefore be better optimised for profit. Price to rise.

4/ Genesis Energy Possibly the end of Unit 5 at Huntly (to be replaced by Contact's Tauhara) and maybe the end of the Rankine units as well as the Waikato river becomes the North's new battery. A serious erosion in the company's generation base. Share price to fall.

SNOOPY

As they say , prediction is difficult.
You got every single one wrong Snoops.
Power Companies.JPG

[stoploss]

As they say , prediction is difficult.
You got every single one wrong Snoops.
Power Companies.JPG

Snoopy might have lost the battle but will he win the war ?