MPG - Metro Glass

[BlackPeter]

You can't go wrong with holding Metro. Strong brand in NZ. Aussie finally come right.
As mentioned above once they get the debt down to their target (2.5x EBITDA was it??) and they start paying divvys the share price will run to 75-80 cents. Either that or FBU will come along and swallow them up.

With the P/E around 5 currently very little downside and big big upside.

I guess it depends on your time horizon. I just looked at their long term performance. If we take the earnings for the last 10 years, then this is a negative number, resulting in a PE of negative 4.4;

If I take the earnings of last year plus the 3 analyst estimates in to the future, then the PE grows to negative 6;

No matter how you twist it ... in the long run MPG always seems to have lost money. Sure, there are periods with small earnings, but then there is always another really big loss consuming all the small gains made before.

2010 EPS -27 cents
2011 EPS -109 cts
2012 EPS 5 cts
2013 EPS 5 cts
2014 EPS 6 cts
2015 EPS 8 cts
2016 EPS 11 cts
2018 EPS 9 cts
2019 EPS 3 cts
2020 EPS -42 cts
2021 EPS (forecast) 6 cents
2022 EPS (forecast) 5 cents
2023 EPS (forecast) 4 cents

Not sure why, but either cutting glass seems to be a loss making operation - or MPG had in the past a particularly inept board and management. Maybe its even both, who knows?

But then ... next time will be different , won't it?