AIR - Air NZ.

[Blue Skies]

One other interesting twist to the whole solvency question is the Commerce commission are looking for a law change to make all future tickets issued fully refundable and bring airline operations here into line with best practice overseas. This possible pending law change could potentially add about another billion to their capital requirements at some point in the future.

I think those holding at $1.58 are "incredibly brave"...and there are a range of far less polite adjectives.

Just had to cancel 2 return tickets for family travel this week & the online credit is only to 30 June. We will probably use this but can imagine there will be a real bun fight if some unable through no fault of their own, unable to use the credits before they expire. Doesn't seem reasonable & as you say a law change could add significantly to their problems.
I see SP currently up at 160 despite this new lockdown causing further major disruption. Seems to be a complete disconnect from reality.

[Getty]

Could be a looming takeover from Underground Airlines.

[nztx]

Could be a looming takeover from Underground Airlines.

Shall we recruit Ewan to look after the job ?

He deserves a bit better run another time ..

[Sideshow Bob]

I am at 1.8bil at 50cps. Why? Cash requirements for next 18 months, 900m of govt loan converted, 900m from minorities for cash. That gets the directors and auditors over the insolvency and going concern issue. Even then I think the auditors will tag the FY accounts.

They haven't used all of the loan as yet. Dame Theresa said at the AGM in late September, they were $110m in, and using at a rate of $65-85m per month. As far as I can see, there has been no mkt update since then.

So by the time of the HY results, they should be somewhere a little less than $500m.

HY will be ugly.....just need to look at the operating stats. Expect they'll announce the capital raise at HY??

Not. A. Holder.

[nztx]

They haven't used all of the loan as yet. Dame Theresa said at the AGM in late September, they were $100m in, and using at a rate of $65-85m per month. As far as I can see, there has been no mkt update since then.

So by the time of the HY results, they should be somewhere a little less than $500m.

HY will be ugly.....just need to look at the operating stats. Expect they'll announce the capital raise at HY??

Not. A. Holder.

but in today's market & times -- doesn't that translate into another 26.9% upside in SP like sailing on fresh air ?

[Sideshow Bob]

but in today's market & times -- doesn't that translate into another 26.9% upside in SP like sailing on fresh air ?

No doubt some will look at it as a bonanza......govt owned, won't go bust, cheap shares, planes in the sky, it'll come back, who cares about financials......

[Beagle]

Shall we recruit Ewan to look after the job ?

He deserves a bit better run another time ..

Problem solved, what could possibly go wrong under his leadership

Blue Skies - That's a surprisingly miserable timeframe to use your credit. I thought they extended credits another year ?

[Dassets]

By the time the cap raise will be completed the loan all but used.

[Beagle]

They haven't used all of the loan as yet. Dame Theresa said at the AGM in late September, they were $100m in, and using at a rate of $65-85m per month. As far as I can see, there has been no mkt update since then.

So by the time of the HY results, they should be somewhere a little less than $500m.

HY will be ugly.....just need to look at the operating stats. Expect they'll announce the capital raise at HY??

Not. A. Holder.

That's really ugly. With what effectively amounts to a freeze on capex that suggest losses of circa $75m cash a month at the mid point and with their annual depreciation bill at ~ $600m another $50m a month for depreciation, total of $125m a month which suggests next weeks half year loss could be an absolute shocker...something like $750m before any further extraordinary losses, restructuring or further aircraft write-down's.

I would think a capital raise announcement has to be made contemporaneously with a loss of that magnitude as otherwise going forward they're ostensibly trading while insolvent.

[Zaphod]

Just had to cancel 2 return tickets for family travel this week & the online credit is only to 30 June. We will probably use this but can imagine there will be a real bun fight if some unable through no fault of their own, unable to use the credits before they expire. Doesn't seem reasonable & as you say a law change could add significantly to their problems.
I see SP currently up at 160 despite this new lockdown causing further major disruption. Seems to be a complete disconnect from reality.

According to the official guideline we received via email, if a cancellation was COVID related then you have until June 2022 to use the credits to book replacement flights which can occur up until June 2023. Does that concur with what you were sent? If not, it would be interesting know why it now differs.