ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Balance]

It is proven the shake and coup of the shares.

They sold:
Date of relevant event: 30 June 2020Date this disclosure made: 2 July 2020
Pendal Group Limited
For last disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,896,079(b) total in class: 739,830,151(c) total percentage held in class: 5.26%
For current holding after ceasing to have substantial holding,—(a) total number held in class: 34,462,527(b) total in class: 739,830,151(c) total percentage held in class: 4.66%

And they have been quietly buying back all of their shares.
Date this disclosure made: 30 September 2020Date on which substantial holding began: 28 September 2020
Pendal Group Limited
For this disclosure,—(a) total number held in class: 38,355,845(b) total in class:742,588,971(c) total percentage held in class: 5.165%

I feel sorry to those whom sold recently .

No need to feel sorry for those who sold to Pendal - they sold out at between $15.34 and $18.00.

Looks like Pendal are not as clever and manipulatively effective as they are made out to be?

[Balance]

What exactly was the purpose of this post?

The purpose is clear but as I do not write and post for the likes of you, you are most welcome to place 'ignore' on yours truly here.

As they say, Ignorance is bliss.

[tomm]

No need to feel sorry for those who sold to Pendal - they sold out at between $15.34 and $18.00.

Looks like Pendal are not as clever and manipulatively effective as they are made out to be?

They sold to recoup at a cheaper Sp, that is why we are experiment an enormous support's rate at this Sp level.

[alokdhir]

IMHO there is no need to convert anyone here ...No one will change his/her opinion or even try to see things from other's perspective

But fact remains same that SP of ATM has turned out to be a bottomless pit recently ...surely worm will turn sometime ...but not soon so the debate here between two camps keep getting nastier after every downgrade

[tomm]

IMHO there is no need to convert anyone here ...No one will change his/her opinion or even try to see things from other's perspective

But fact remains same that SP of ATM has turned out to be a bottomless pit recently ...surely worm will turn sometime ...but not soon so the debate here between two camps keep getting nastier after every downgrade

I respect your opinion but may I ask Do you hold ATM shares ??? or are you looking for a cheap entry? Traders are making money only you sitting there and thinking as an amateur trader. I am sure lots of traders are working their way to balance their sheets and even making money.

[Balance]

a2 Milk : Morgans rates A2M as Add


The a2 Milk Co's result was considered weak by Morgans though slightly ahead of guidance. Despite management issuing another material downgrade, the broker believes the company is well placed over the medium to longer-term once channels normalise.

The analyst reduces FY21-23 profit (NPAT) forecasts by -13.7%, -14.1% and -13.9%, respectively, though forecasting forecast solid earnings growth from FY22. This is driven by a recovery in the daigou as covid restrictions ease and growth in China and North America.

Add rating and target is decreased to $10.40 from $12.20.

Target price is $10.40.Current Price is $8.77. Difference: $1.63 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If A2M meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

[Balance]

Can you collaborate why is that wrong to bring old posts in to discussion? It looks like Beagle is very proud of his decade long history of posts. Don’t see why it should be waisted and not to show that his opinion usually does not worth much as he changes it as he pleased. Btw, same applies to other b posters

Speaks for itself :

Posted 11 Jan 2021

I do not think the ‘debacle’ with Hrdlicka was about her moving too fast. Rather she was 'destroying' established management model/culture while sitting on two chairs letting her 'buddy' consultants run the company and as result many long serving and dedicated people decided to leave the company. Also I do not think Hearn had a choice but to bring Babidge back otherwise company would be without CEO for sometime which is much worse. It was always clear that Babidge would be a seat warmer and not a decision maker. I have my reservations about the BOD but I agree with Ruby and don't think that they are that stupid and will let new CEO to pour another load of manure this time. Besides, it looks like DB will start somewhere around HY results announcement date and I doubt he will have time to find any remaining skeletons. It's not like I think there are any.

Fourth downgrade on the way - new CEO will be going in with his own mandate to clean out every single cupboard of gross mismanagement which we know is there.

How the heck can any well managed multi-billion dollar company not know how bad their stock situation & sales were?

Sales not being achieved = stock piling up because management had no clue.

Getting rid of stock = reduced margins.

Too easy to blame it on Covid & Daigou - allows management & BOD off the hook.

As Craig’s note alerted to - ATM has lost momentum vs it’s competitors.

And all that while executives and directors were feasting on share options, huge benefits and salaries and selling shares after telling all and sundry that everything is good!

[tomm]

a2 Milk : Morgans rates A2M as Add


The a2 Milk Co's result was considered weak by Morgans though slightly ahead of guidance. Despite management issuing another material downgrade, the broker believes the company is well placed over the medium to longer-term once channels normalise.

The analyst reduces FY21-23 profit (NPAT) forecasts by -13.7%, -14.1% and -13.9%, respectively, though forecasting forecast solid earnings growth from FY22. This is driven by a recovery in the daigou as covid restrictions ease and growth in China and North America.

Add rating and target is decreased to $10.40 from $12.20.

Target price is $10.40.Current Price is $8.77. Difference: $1.63 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If A2M meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

To NZD Target price is at $11.07NZD , current closed SP at yesterday is at $9.60NZD.

[Beagle]

Stephen Ridgewell published and extensive preview overnight in advance of the ATM 1H21 result on Thursday. The result is pre-guided with $181m of EBITDA expected although the key questions for Ridgewell is whether ATM can provide confidence that revenue and margin trends are stabilising sequentially and also whether ATM can diversify its channels to market and defend its brand premium under new CEO David Bortolussi. Clarity on the latter question will take some time, although feedback from our proprietary large daigou contacts suggest that the sequential sales snap back is yet to eventuate. The issues around this important channel are multifaceted but can be best summarised as follows:

· Volumes declining - volume trends have worsened in early 2021 with Jan sales -70% yoy (vs. -55% yoy in the Dec qtr) with a much smaller than normal increase in demand ahead of the Chinese New Year period (chart 1)

· ATM’s daigou market share has eased – ATM has gone from market share gainer in 2018/19 to holding relative share versus other key daigou brands such as Danone’s Aptamil.

Balance a few days ago.

Looks like one analyst did a company visit to glean that information which does not auger well for second half sales and seems to be a very pertinent factor that's more or less been ignored on here. Reflecting on this I think its highly likely there will be a fourth downgrade. In nearly 40 years of bean counting I have learned that its the very latest sales data that's the most reliable indicator of future sales results and its clear December 2020 and January 2021 sales were excetionmally weak.

Beginner level TA (selling on a break down of the 100 day MA) would have got people out at ~ $20, kept them out since then and saved them losing more than half their money.
Many years ago I used to think TA was of limited value...these days I think one ignores TA at their absolute peril and seldom you see a finer example than this one !!
On a longer term chart like 5 years, (not shown) its clear a simple strategy of investing with the momentum using any breech up or down through the 100 day MA as the indicator of changing momentum has been a very worthwhile strategy. One day, might not be until 2022 or even 2023, momentum will swing back to the upside with a break up through the 100 day MA. This might be from a base several dollars below the current price in my opinion.

ATM has more than halved in the last 7 months...couldn't happen again from the current level going forward surely ?...or could it ? Some people seem super confident growth will return, like it a fate accompli...I am not so sure that's as certain as some shareholders think it is. This stock could halve again to ~ $5. Remember, I called it first !

I have learned its a very "brave" thing to do to buy a stock in a confirmed downtrend. Being "brave" is usually a very expensive exercise in my long investing experience dating back to the mid 1980's.
ATMFEB21.jpg

[Balance]

Balance a few days ago.

Looks like one analyst did a company visit to glean that information which does not auger well for second half sales and seems to be a very pertinent factor that's more or less been ignored on here. Reflecting on this I think its highly likely there will be a fourth downgrade. In nearly 40 years of bean counting I have learned that its the very latest sales data that's the most reliable indicator of future sales results and its clear December 2020 and January 2021 sales were excetionmally weak.

ATM has more than halved in the last 7 months...couldn't happen again from the current level going forward surely ?...or could it ? Some people seem super confident growth will return, like it a fate accompli...I am not so sure that's as certain as some shareholders think it is. This stock could halve again to ~ $5. Remember, I called it first !

I have learned its a very "brave" thing to do to buy a stock in a confirmed downtrend. Being "brave" is usually a very expensive exercise in my long investing experience dating back to the mid 1980's.

That Craig's piece was courtesy of Entrep (thanks!) on 24 Feb, day before the results announcement.

As telling a piece of research as you are ever going to get of the pending third downgrade when Craig's sources on the ground were telling them that things on the sales front were looking grim.

Those who took heed of the research would have got out at $11.48 that day - and bought back 22% cheaper the next day, if they so choose.

As for ATM's sp halving again - that's easy to see as the growth multiple the stock is still trading on of 30.6X F21 shrinks to 18X in the event of a fourth downgrade.