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- TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]
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13-07-2021, 02:43 PM
#6881
Patience Grasshopper. Good things take time.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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13-07-2021, 05:06 PM
#6882
Originally Posted by winner69
Whats happened to our $5
Seems to be getting further away
ex div today...
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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13-07-2021, 06:08 PM
#6883
Originally Posted by peat
ex div today...
Time to back up the truck again soon ?
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13-07-2021, 07:42 PM
#6884
If history is anything to go by, there is an 80%* chance the closing share price on 15 July will fall from the 14 July closing share price, by an amount that is less than the value of the dividend. There is also a 50%* chance the closing share price does not change from cum to ex dividend (i.e. the daily closing price change is zero). Given the current yield for this dividend is around 2% and a brokerage rate of 0.5% => free money once you factor in the tax credits.
*this is assuming one does not bet the farm on an illiquid stock and move the price excessively.
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13-07-2021, 08:54 PM
#6885
Originally Posted by Ferg
If history is anything to go by, there is an 80%* chance the closing share price on 15 July will fall from the 14 July closing share price, by an amount that is less than the value of the dividend. There is also a 50%* chance the closing share price does not change from cum to ex dividend (i.e. the daily closing price change is zero). Given the current yield for this dividend is around 2% and a brokerage rate of 0.5% => free money once you factor in the tax credits.
*this is assuming one does not bet the farm on an illiquid stock and move the price excessively.
I think the annualised Div yield is a bit higher than 2% - Ferg
Using past 4 payouts - 20 cps cash = 4.67% + Imp Credits
Gross Div Yield (incl tax credits) = 27.78 cps = 6.49 % Gross
I'm thinking a possibility that interims may stretch to 5c or 6c upwards for 21/22 year
Working 3 x 5 c say+ 6c final forwards = 21.0 cps = 4.906% Cash yield
In that scenario, Gross Div Yield (incl tax credits) = 29.17 cps = 6.81 % Gross
If quarterly payouts stretch to 6c + credits - Gross Annual Dividend yield (incl credits) looks
like 7.78% on current SP
Still pretty good with a good past track record, against current bank deposit rates
Last edited by nztx; 13-07-2021 at 08:58 PM.
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13-07-2021, 09:10 PM
#6886
Originally Posted by nztx
I think the annualised Div yield is a bit higher than 2% - Ferg
Very true. I wasn't 100% clear in my post. The 2% refers to the gross dividend of the day, not annualised.
I have been working the maths* to find the appropriate instantaneous dividend yield vs brokerage and imputation rates to find instances of ex dividend mis-pricing. There is an 80% chance this will be one of them. I will put up a post of the formula needed to solve this, plus some stats on SP losses vs dividend yield - the two are inter-twined.
*That's why I haven't been around much lately - been crunching a lot of numbers.
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13-07-2021, 10:42 PM
#6887
Originally Posted by Ferg
Very true. I wasn't 100% clear in my post. The 2% refers to the gross dividend of the day, not annualised.
I have been working the maths* to find the appropriate instantaneous dividend yield vs brokerage and imputation rates to find instances of ex dividend mis-pricing. There is an 80% chance this will be one of them. I will put up a post of the formula needed to solve this, plus some stats on SP losses vs dividend yield - the two are inter-twined.
*That's why I haven't been around much lately - been crunching a lot of numbers.
TRA does appear to exhibit slip backs in it's past SP upwards moves -- these appear temporary within recent 12 months
20-30c not unusual - I wonder if not the same before resuming ?
The Jan 20 2020 div payment saw a slip of approx 20c between Ex & Pymt date of 4.0 cps + Tax credits
then there was the larger slide into the Covid-19 lockdown trough
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14-07-2021, 02:26 PM
#6888
Originally Posted by nztx
TRA does appear to exhibit slip backs in it's past SP upwards moves -- these appear temporary within recent 12 months
20-30c not unusual - I wonder if not the same before resuming ?
well timed post considering todays slip back.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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14-07-2021, 02:27 PM
#6889
Goodness gracious ….as share price heads to 4 bucks instead of 5 bucks a Director has been selling
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...649/350331.pdf
Last edited by winner69; 14-07-2021 at 02:29 PM.
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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14-07-2021, 03:32 PM
#6890
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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