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  1. #7111
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/cov...FE2SP33NHYD6E/

    Almost given up on any chance of elimination ?
    What are the implications for HLG and other listed retailers with an extensive branch network there like Michael Hill ?
    They will be impacted just like they were last year.

    Post lockdown, sales will boom.

  2. #7112
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    Marshal law light..

    certainly means next few months might see a chance to pick up HLG lower...how much lower will depend on the stats as everyone knows.

    Assuming everyone's models allow for cash ups and rebalancing with cash on hand for opportunities over the next period out to end of March.

    AUSSI closed till xmas then.
    Last edited by Waltzing; 16-08-2021 at 02:46 PM.

  3. #7113
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    During last years lockdown there was an explosion in both mens and women's casual, ie comfy wear. Hopefully they are due for replacement and of coarse there is extra time to let the fingers do the walking on line. Meanwhile let's not forget the New Zealand business.

  4. #7114
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    They will be impacted just like they were last year.

    Post lockdown, sales will boom.
    I'm not so sure mate. They beat the normal Covid variant last year. 8 weeks into lockdowns this time and the Delta variant continues to spread faster. I think this could last for many more months which would make it much longer than last year. The other thing this time is serious lockdown fatigue. I think many people are over lockdowns and many more think Delta can't be stopped so the propensity towards rule breaking will grow ever higher as really severe fatigue sets in.

    Listening to one Australian journalist the other day a lot of people are feeling really despondent and its really taking a toll on people's mental health now.
    Maybe that leads to even more Women shopping online at Glassons ? I don't know. Good that two thirds of group sales are in good ol New Zealand. We sure live in interesting times !
    Last edited by Beagle; 16-08-2021 at 06:14 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #7115
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    bets on sub 6 before xmas ?

    definitely increase holdings.

    The fines in AUS and light marshal law in NSW will jolt a few people.

    Wonder if anyone will actually pay...i doubt it.

    How do you enforce it without court action and they will all have to handed over to debt collectors.
    Last edited by Waltzing; 16-08-2021 at 08:00 PM.

  6. #7116
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Too tough to call but the sales update for FY22 at the annual meeting will be interesting. How resilient this is to the protracted Australian lockdown will determine its short term share price performance. I have taken my holding down even further as I believe the risks are weighted to the downside in the next few months.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #7117
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    One thing we have learnt recently is that the effects of lock downs are likely short term only (May even be net positive). Therefore the impact on share price should really be no more than one years earnings, say 30 cps. If it was worth $7.30, should be worth $7.00 now. Not saying it was worth $7.30 before but I think the reaction to Australian lockdowns is about right as is.

  8. #7118
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    If holders panic again like they often do than some silly prices might turn up. It will pay to keep a very careful eye out just like WHS wobbled for a moment today and the crowd jumped in...

    the SHAZ will be waiting just like they did with AIR.

    The real play was MFT it could have made some Million dollar profits for some.

    " reaction to Australian lockdowns is about right as is."

    Think the comment is right but heres hoping.

    NSW number hit over 400 today and thats a wild fire starting unless the lock down is killing it off.

    Staff at "
    St George Hospital oncology ward " have tested postive.

    We will know soon enough.
    Last edited by Waltzing; 16-08-2021 at 08:45 PM.

  9. #7119
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    If you zero out a years profit in a DCF model your intrinsic value should max drop by 10%

    These lockdowns wont zero out HLG profit..

    Be interesting to see where SP goes. Could get some cheap HLG shares as the rolling lockdowns drag on and some nerves set into the SP

  10. #7120
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    Dont under estimate how hardened the investors have become to war zone conditions..

    Look how many NZ'ers leap into getting mortgages at low rates.

    The Locals arnt as scared as you might think.

    Even a 5 to 10 percent pull back on the S&P might not dent it much but the low vol could cause a brief opportunity.
    Last edited by Waltzing; 16-08-2021 at 09:13 PM.

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