Bargains during lockdown, what's on your shopping list ?

[tommy_d]

So...what to many has felt like the inevitable has finally happened and we have community transmission of the Delta variant.

.....

Stating the obvious but I think this Delta variant will be much harder to beat than earlier variants so the possibility of an extended national lockdown is probably pretty high.

I pulled the trigger and topped up my holdings of ARV and HGH yesterday, shame about the timing... I felt they were good enough value to buy yesterday, so I'll keep an eye on those two at least.

for bounce-chasing, I haven't looked yet to see what i think fair-value is, but i'm interested in watching the price response for NZX,

[traineeinvestor]

Well said but Percy hasn't morphed into a Beagle

My apologies to both of you - that's what comes from posting while on a Zoom call.

[Joshuatree]

I bought a vodka and a gin, looking forward to my holiday.

[flyinglizard]

I dumped ARV and MOV around 3pm. Sorry to see those two SP collapse. Going to buy EVO this or next week if the SP is right.

[Zaphod]

The two sectors I would avoid unless prices drop by a lot are (and maybe even then) are (i) tourism and (ii) retail focused property. In the case of the former, my view is that there is zero chance of a Trans-Tasman bubble being resurrected now that Australia (except WA) has shifted from an "elimination" to "living with covid" strategy which, combined with a halt on domestic travel of uncertain duration, does not bode well for Air NZ and AIA. Percy has already mentioned KPG was far as the latter is concerned.

You're right, and I think even once restrictions lift in the future, climate change initiatives are also likely to re-shape our tourism sector for decades to come.

The hospitality sector bounced back once lockdowns eased, but once borders open slightly, a permanent level 2 is likely to result causing a large swathe of those businesses fail.

Probably not worth the risk at the moment.

[Gunner]

What is the cost of lockdown per day? Can we not spend that money on speeding the vaccinations up? At what % of vaccinations of the population do we stop going into lockdown. There needs to be a figure as the cost benefit ratio changes. Covid cannot be eradicated forever.

[tommy_d]

What is the cost of lockdown per day? Can we not spend that money on speeding the vaccinations up? At what % of vaccinations of the population do we stop going into lockdown. There needs to be a figure as the cost benefit ratio changes. Covid cannot be eradicated forever.

limiting factor on vaccines the last week or so seems to simply getting around to booking them, or prepared to travel more than 1km to get them. Now that the supply limitation is addressed it's accelerating massively

That % vs lockdown question is interesting, heaps of speculation - 80%? 90?
Downside of delta and vaccine breakthrough plus asymptomatic transmission is that things really start to suck for those who have medical reasons not to get the vaccine...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

What is the cost of lockdown per day? Can we not spend that money on speeding the vaccinations up? At what % of vaccinations of the population do we stop going into lockdown. There needs to be a figure as the cost benefit ratio changes. Covid cannot be eradicated forever.

the answer to your question is no. No amount of money can speed up vaccine deployment (the limiting factor is supply from Pfizer - which is not solved by money), and the monetary impact from letting covid run rampant is far larger than a week or two of lockdown

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7d1_mBBmOZg it never gets old lol

[Dlownz]

Not really sure if there will be big bargains like last time. Tomorrow morning the market may have a morning slump but I imagine it will recover by the end of the day.