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30-09-2021, 03:08 PM
#481
Originally Posted by TeslaGod
Negative 2% to 3% max because people won't deposit cash into retail bank's, you would be charged for depositing your salary/and savings into a bank account.
Following the decreasing trend line of the OCR over the last 40 years, this should happen sometime this decade or early 2030 depending on how the world economy play's out.
That's when they will replace the kiwi.
Word to the wise, you might want to start growing your asset base.
Time's running out.
Well, none of us really know, but I'm sure we can agree that only time will tell huh.
Re your negative 2-3% max figure, what I would respectfully suggest is that you may need to take a much broader view!
For us to go back into a sustained negative interest rate environment, some structural changes with the macro-economic situation will likely have occurred. If we then went through a period of "Bail-IN's" (Note: not bail outs) then unbelievably from today's viewpoint, but quite conceivably from a non-emotional perspective, we could then see interest rates FAR lower than negative 3%.
Last edited by FTG; 01-10-2021 at 02:20 PM.
Success is a journey AND a destination!
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01-10-2021, 10:55 AM
#482
Interesting read, pretty much a given that govt debts get written off at some stage and money supply permanently increased.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...itative-easing
Debt is the way to go but it is hard to find an asset with any yield in todays environment.
I guess if I believed in the inflation scenario with no significant rises in interest rates buying property companies on margin would be the way to go long term. Supercharge my debt with the debt the property companies already have, plus margin debt. Even better drawdown on my revolving mortgage to add even more leverage.
Does anyone think that is a smart idea or reckless? If interest rates did rise my equity would be wiped out pretty quick as property companies have an inverse relationship to interest rates.
Last edited by Aaron; 01-10-2021 at 10:57 AM.
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01-10-2021, 12:46 PM
#483
Sounds a lot like Modern Monetary Theory.
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03-10-2021, 01:00 AM
#484
Originally Posted by Aaron
Debt is the way to go but it is hard to find an asset with any yield in todays environment.
I guess if I believed in the inflation scenario with no significant rises in interest rates buying property companies on margin would be the way to go long term. Supercharge my debt with the debt the property companies already have, plus margin debt. Even better drawdown on my revolving mortgage to add even more leverage.
Does anyone think that is a smart idea or reckless? If interest rates did rise my equity would be wiped out pretty quick as property companies have an inverse relationship to interest rates.
I retired in my mid 30s doing that (44 now)
.
Elon Musk doe's it, Warren Buffet, Donald trump and so do countless other Billionaire's.(I'm not a billionaire..yet)
It's how we (avoid ) paying tax on our ridiculous access to cash and liquidity.
Come on Aaron who do you think the Central Banks are protecting? You and your tax paying job! Please.
I might seem sarcastic but I am only passing on my own real world experience, take my posts as you will.
Lesson 2:
Our Central Bank is making it harder to do what we have achieved.. basically you need someone to pay taxes for doctors, Fireman, road's, your prime minister's lipstick etc.
You can't have everybody becoming rich pricks ,
I mean who would pay for it all?
Last edited by TeslaGod; 03-10-2021 at 01:05 AM.
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04-10-2021, 09:47 AM
#485
Interesting view, only an opinion piece though and more directed at productive businesses, rentiers who add little to the economy absolutely love low interest rates it is great for their business model.
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/1...more-harm-good
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05-10-2021, 08:47 AM
#486
If you have seen the Netflix series Squid game it is a very accurate series on money and life.
The game is rigged towards the wealthy
Learn those lessons as you climb towards achieving financial success..or as the graphic series show you will face the consequences.
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05-10-2021, 11:03 AM
#487
Originally Posted by TeslaGod
If you have seen the Netflix series Squid game it is a very accurate series on money and life.
The game is rigged towards the wealthy
Learn those lessons as you climb towards achieving financial success..or as the graphic series show you will face the consequences.
Office of Inspector General to review whether Fed officials' trading activity broke ethics rules or the law
Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren all traded just "Before" and during the Covid-19 pandemic
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/04/offi...ndroidappshare
Don't expect to much to come from this, the Fed has too much power...understanding yet?
What are you planning on doing about it?
Complain on the comments section of interest.co.nz?
Or learn how to benefit yourself.
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05-10-2021, 02:04 PM
#488
I thought that front running the fed was a common investment strategy. If the Fed is going to buy it, get in first. I guess the Fed officials could front run the Fed with much more certainty.
I read also that a large chunk of Jerome Powell's wealth is in equities so he lacks any motivation to let asset prices correct.
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05-10-2021, 02:24 PM
#489
Since Orr started numbers of staff at RBNZ has increased 60% to over 400
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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05-10-2021, 03:55 PM
#490
Originally Posted by winner69
Since Orr started numbers of staff at RBNZ has increased 60% to over 400
Have you been reading the RBNZ annual report?
Where do you get information like that? I tried the annual report to verify the news and see since 2018 staff expenses have gone from $32mill to $54mill or 69%
What do they all do?
Obviously Adrian doing his best to drive inflation at a local level as well. Money well spent no doubt.
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