ZEL - Z Energy.

[ananda77]

Aston Martins are awesome but attract all sorts of attention and some of it isn't good.
Its a really bad look from an ESG perspective rocking up in one of those when 90%+ of other people are really hurting in this Covid pandemic.
Where do you park it that's safe ? Pretty tempting target for seriously disaffected people to vandalize the car.

What's the problem Beagle? - just turn into a evangelical born again christian and you don't need to bother with these sort of moralistic petty views and since Jesus is protecting you and your ride, don't worry about secure parking. Just look at Tamaki as a shining example of "I am on a deserving Special' 👏

[see weed]

Agree mostly about home EV charging but on a road trip its different.
Relatively new sections of the Waikato expressway are an interesting case study on what the future may hold. Regular off ramps to "Service centers" which contain EV charging stations which may or may not belong to the service station, sorry I can't remember but more likely are installed by the likes of https://charge.net.nz/ so charge-net pays for the install and reaps the benefits but they're certainly adjacent to the fuel service station and of course there's a small range of other convenience stores, cafe's and one or two fast food outlets.

I am not so sure anymore just installing a fast charger at the average Z service station in a provincial area is going to be sufficient to attract EV drivers attendance as I think people expect more than just the facilities offered by a Z service station while they wait for their EV's to charge up.

Mrs B and I sometimes stop as these service centers because they're a good place to take a break and usually have a decent café with food and coffee that's vastly better than what you'd get at an average service station.

No matter which way you slice and dice it (even just compared to BP's substantially better food and coffee offer ) Z's stores look tired and dated and its a sunset industry. Jet fuel demand isn't coming screaming back in huge volumes anytime soon either in my opinion.

Hey Beagle, this sort of talk sounds like you have already sold your ZEL shares. Lot of the Z stations I have been in around my neck of the woods look very new clean and with good food, but I will not comment on the coffee, as I do not drink it. So all these other tired and dated BP, Caltex, Gull and Mobil etc outlets are also in a sunset industry. The question is, how long does it take for the sun to set on this industry? And why would an Aussi company snatch an ice cream, sorry, be spending $2 billion on a sunset industry? I am sure these outlets will be around for a long long time in one form or another. Long time = long sun set

[see weed]

One other thing, got 2 emails from Abby Foote the Chair of Z late last night. Did any other holders of ZEL get similar emails?

[winner69]

One other thing, got 2 emails from Abby Foote the Chair of Z late last night. Did any other holders of ZEL get similar emails?

Second one was apologising for a mistake in the first ...Z often have to correct things

[dreamcatcher]

One other thing, got 2 emails from Abby Foote the Chair of Z late last night. Did any other holders of ZEL get similar emails?

yep same here

[peat]

Well maybe the answer is the mixture running that Aston Martin. Wine and cheese anyone?

what an amazing scene with the Aston Martin in the latest 007 movie !!
Capture.JPG

[Beagle]

Hey Beagle, this sort of talk sounds like you have already sold your ZEL shares. Lot of the Z stations I have been in around my neck of the woods look very new clean and with good food, but I will not comment on the coffee, as I do not drink it. So all these other tired and dated BP, Caltex, Gull and Mobil etc outlets are also in a sunset industry. The question is, how long does it take for the sun to set on this industry? And why would an Aussi company snatch an ice cream, sorry, be spending $2 billion on a sunset industry? I am sure these outlets will be around for a long long time in one form or another. Long time = long sun set

BP wild bean coffee rocks. Our resident expert guru, now head of shareholders association who knows this industry extremely well told me some interesting information about this sector, (which I am sure he won't mind me sharing) including the average weekly instore purchases at BP sites compared to ZEL...I am going off memory here but I think it was about 3.5 times higher at BP, average across the country. $131K v 35K from vague memory, figures were from a while back.

I still hold in the hope there is a chance of a better offer but I am not holding my breath.
You're right its going to be a long sunset. I don't think anyone thinks otherwise but it is going to be an accelerating trend. Once EV's achieve price parity with regular ICE vehicles the rate of decline will really begin to accelerate. They'll still be selling fuel in the 2040's and 2050's but it won't be anything like the volume now. I think Z put out some graph in their presentation of volume expectations in the years ahead...I'll see if I can find it or maybe someone else will share ?

Thanks to Winner emailing me some research on comparative multiples for other industry players overseas I have reached the preliminary conclusion that 12.4 times EBITDA looks like a pretty fair price to me but I will reserve judgement until we get the independent valuation.

Yes a very long sunset. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...302/351087.pdf
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...302/351086.pdf

[winner69]

Independent Report will say fair price us $3.55 to $3.90 …..shareholders should accept in other words

[see weed]

BP wild bean coffee rocks. Our resident expert guru, now head of shareholders association who knows this industry extremely well told me some interesting information about this sector, (which I am sure he won't mind me sharing) including the average weekly instore purchases at BP sites compared to ZEL...I am going off memory here but I think it was about 3.5 times higher at BP, average across the country. $131K v 35K from vague memory, figures were from a while back.

I still hold in the hope there is a chance of a better offer but I am not holding my breath.
You're right its going to be a long sunset. I don't think anyone thinks otherwise but it is going to be an accelerating trend. Once EV's achieve price parity with regular ICE vehicles the rate of decline will really begin to accelerate. They'll still be selling fuel in the 2040's and 2050's but it won't be anything like the volume now. I think Z put out some graph in their presentation of volume expectations in the years ahead...I'll see if I can find it or maybe someone else will share ?

Thanks to Winner emailing me some research on comparative multiples for other industry players overseas I have reached the preliminary conclusion that 12.4 times EBITDA looks like a pretty fair price to me but I will reserve judgement until we get the independent valuation.

Yes a very long sunset. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...302/351087.pdf
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...302/351086.pdf

Thanks for the info Beagle. Will not have time to read all that, but am also in this for a quick buck. Whatever happens, it doesn't really mater who is the best brand, they will all be foreign owned. The question is, do we take our profit now or wait a couple of months for an extra amount of $ks?

[Muse]

Thanks for the info Beagle. Will not have time to read all that, but am also in this for a quick buck. Whatever happens, it doesn't really mater who is the best brand, they will all be foreign owned. The question is, do we take our profit now or wait a couple of months for an extra amount of $ks?

Hope you pay your tax on dem quick bucks