-
22-10-2021, 10:39 AM
#5411
Originally Posted by LaserEyeKiwi
Excellent news with this mornings new Covid framework announcement!
- retail will be open under every alert level
- more than doubling of resurgence payments to impacted businesses
- increased hardship support for minimum wage workers, meaning even a couple both working 40 hours on minimum wage will be getting extra payments if needed.
- enforced vaccination requirements to enter many establishments mean confidence for people to patronize premises
Seems to be confusion about ‘each DHB’ and ‘90% of all NZers vaccinated’ before the lights are turned on.
Might be many weeks before Auckland shops open
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
-
22-10-2021, 11:03 AM
#5412
The question is "when" not "if" with this stock.
Originally Posted by LaserEyeKiwi
Excellent news with this mornings new Covid framework announcement!
- retail will be open under every alert level
- more than doubling of resurgence payments to impacted businesses
- increased hardship support for minimum wage workers, meaning even a couple both working 40 hours on minimum wage will be getting extra payments if needed.
- enforced vaccination requirements to enter many establishments mean confidence for people to patronize premises
I also took this as good news. New Zealand has now surpassed the US, UK, and Australia in vaccination rates. I know we like to focus on the gloom and doom around here sometimes, but that is not an insignificant advancement.
Does anyone REALLY disagree with the "coiled up spring" spending pattern people exhibit when they come out of a lockdown? It's a readily observable and predictable pattern that has as much to do with human nature as economics. The question is not "if" this is going to happen but "when?" Could be a few weeks later than expected. So what?
-
22-10-2021, 11:17 AM
#5413
Originally Posted by winner69
Seems to be confusion about ‘each DHB’ and ‘90% of all NZers vaccinated’ before the lights are turned on.
Might be many weeks before Auckland shops open
auckland will move quicker to traffic light system if it’s DHBs hit 90% (or close to it by Nov 29th), but in the meantime Auckland is still in the level 3, steps 1-2-3 system which has retail reopening at step 2.
-
22-10-2021, 11:19 AM
#5414
Originally Posted by cymonger
I also took this as good news. New Zealand has now surpassed the US, UK, and Australia in vaccination rates. I know we like to focus on the gloom and doom around here sometimes, but that is not an insignificant advancement.
Does anyone REALLY disagree with the "coiled up spring" spending pattern people exhibit when they come out of a lockdown? It's a readily observable and predictable pattern that has as much to do with human nature as economics. The question is not "if" this is going to happen but "when?" Could be a few weeks later than expected. So what?
precisely - and this basically means retail remains open in 2022, bar some unfortunate new development (like a new variant or virus that is resistant to Pfizer vaccine, that also makes it through MIQ).
-
22-10-2021, 11:24 AM
#5415
Originally Posted by LaserEyeKiwi
precisely - and this basically means retail remains open in 2022, bar some unfortunate new development (like a new variant or virus that is resistant to Pfizer vaccine, that also makes it through MIQ).
Or our health system becoming overrun and given we have amongst the very lowest level's of ICU capability in the OECD that won't take much. They are reserving the right to reimpose lockdown's and I think they'll need to.
Dividend on the assumption that we're "predominantly" at level 2 by the end of October but its quite clear all of the Auckland region and much of the Waikato will still be at level 3 so I guess that begs the question of how many people live within the wider Auckland Waikato regions ? I believe the wider Auckland region is 1.6 million so surely combined this is something over 2 million or more than 40% of N.Z.'s population ? Does this meet the poorly defined term of N.Z. being predominantly at level 2 if both these regions are at level 3 ? Yes more than 50% of the country will be at level 2 but what test are the directors going to use ? How much did their expensive ESG statement about not taking Govt subsidies cost shareholders ? Can they still afford to make the dividend payment of $60.7m ? Is it prudent to do so given uncertainties ahead ?
This is what they actually said...make your own call on this
The Board is pleased to announce a fully imputed final dividend of 17.5 cents per share. The final dividend has been
declared on the assumption that New Zealand is predominantly at Level 2 from the end of October. The record date
for the dividend will be 18 November 2021 and will be paid on 3 December 2021. This brings the total dividends for
the year to 35.5 cents per share declared, and represents a pay-out ratio of 70.2% of adjusted net profit....
FY22 sales for the first 8 weeks of the financial year were down 22% compared to the same period in
FY21. Despite the year starting positively, New Zealand went into a country wide Level 4 COVID-19
lockdown on 18 August – 2.5 weeks into the financial year....
The Group’s cash deposits have reduced significantly since balance date as a result of the decreased
sales but the Group’s bank debt facilities remain undrawn.
Last edited by Beagle; 22-10-2021 at 11:45 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
-
22-10-2021, 01:08 PM
#5416
will auckland ever come out of lockdown? if your got to have the 3 dhb's in ak at 90% to move to red are we not held hostage to counties/manukau getting to that level some yr ?
one step ahead of the herd
-
22-10-2021, 01:18 PM
#5417
Originally Posted by bull....
will auckland ever come out of lockdown? if your got to have the 3 dhb's in ak at 90% to move to red are we not held hostage to counties/manukau getting to that level some yr ?
90% is a pipedream, very unlikely to happen imo.
You have to remember about 5% of people who get their first dose don't get their second and are not counted so the reality is you need 95% first dose.
Hopefully the gap closes as people are excluded freedoms but it's an uphill battle.
-
22-10-2021, 01:28 PM
#5418
Originally Posted by allfromacell
90% is a pipedream, very unlikely to happen imo.
You have to remember about 5% of people who get their first dose don't get their second and are not counted so the reality is you need 95% first dose.
Hopefully the gap closes as people are excluded freedoms but it's an uphill battle.
The 90% only indicative methinks …the PM said to be reviewed Nov 29 and we’ll including Auckland will all be OK for Christmas
So Christmas shopping go ahead
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
-
22-10-2021, 01:29 PM
#5419
I agree. 90% target is a joke. This government has lost the plot
-
22-10-2021, 01:29 PM
#5420
Originally Posted by bull....
will auckland ever come out of lockdown? if your got to have the 3 dhb's in ak at 90% to move to red are we not held hostage to counties/manukau getting to that level some yr ?
We probably are and it seems to hinge on what the likes of gang and cult leaders like Brian Tamaki tells their supporters.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-...FAHK3LJFOCEIM/
129 cases, another record today...it should be clear to everyone this is growing very quickly.
Despite all the Govt talk today its clear this outbreak is going to get vastly worse before sometime in the (distant ?) future it gets better.
How much people spend in retail when there's many hundreds, (thousands ?) of cases a day remains to be seen.
Last edited by Beagle; 22-10-2021 at 01:34 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Tags for this Thread
Posting Permissions
- You may not post new threads
- You may not post replies
- You may not post attachments
- You may not edit your posts
-
Forum Rules
|
|
Bookmarks