GNE - Genesis Energy

[Beagle]

Reflects the fact that equity risk premiums have been falling all around the world over the years.
465 basis points gross is quite a significant risk premium for a utility stock. Govt bonds themselves are not completely risk free.
$2.44 with 17.6 cents annual dividends 80% imputed would give a 9.3% gross yield which I suggest is absurdly high for a utility.

[value_investor]

Nice time to get into this one if you have a long term time horizon and want to make a bit in yield for income return. Certainly one which is likely to survive any downturn in the general market, lockdowns or economic downturn I think everyone needs to plug into a power source.

I'm liking the valuation more day by day and the general trends for the industry are headed in the right direction. See this more of a way to pad out my portfolio with a consistent dividend performer and potential capital return albeit very modest. The security of the dividend yield is what is perhaps most appealing.

Disc: Not a holder, always been looking at it closely but coming into the realm of valuation that future dividend yield and potential returns is worth getting into. Might be worth getting in now and accumulating as it goes less than $3.

[Nor]

Still holding to my view that $2.45 would be a good top up price. The risk of regulatory change is as unpredictable as lighting. Subject only to the whim of a politician.

[Snoopy]

Disc: Not a holder, always been looking at it closely but coming into the realm of valuation that future dividend yield and potential returns is worth getting into. Might be worth getting in now and accumulating as it goes less than $3.

Still holding to my view that $2.45 would be a good top up price. The risk of regulatory change is as unpredictable as lighting. Subject only to the whim of a politician.

I love you guys negative optimism!

SNOOPY

[bull....]

2.81 next little support , way overvalued now , like most gentailers

[Beagle]

Disappointing year for GNE shareholders, myself included. Sometimes things overshoot to the downside and opportunity knocks.
Lets get real, most of these things sell for yield and no other reason so lets have a look at the prospective yield at $2.81.
First an overview of the prospective 2022 investment case from the brokers perspective and I note the average target price of $3.09 https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...957/consensus/
I also note the average broker is forecasting 18 cps in dividends https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...57/financials/
Previous dividends have been 80% imputed so that gives a company tax rate = 28% x 0.8 = 22.4% gross up rate for the benefit of imputation credits so gross dividends are
18 / 0.776 = 23.2 cps gross forecast dividend. 23.2 / 281 = 8.25% gross forecast yield for 2022

People use power no matter what the economy is doing so 8.25% for a fairly safe utility seems pretty attractive to me so I will HOLD and hope the recent correction is overdone.

If the correction continues $2.58 would give a prospective gross yield of 9%... Hmmm...I think I'd go seriously overweight at that level.

[Shareguy]

Yes disappointing for sure. I see several years of fantastic dividends still with a relatively safe stock. On that basis I’m looking at a few more if it goes much lower.

[winner69]

I regret that I mentioned $2.50 a few weeks ago…..when I said the gap between yield and 5 yr govt would revert to the mean .... well it is just doing that

Stupid de facto term deposit …..loss of capital any day now I fear

Got sucked into the high yield trap I did …night check back to see what the yield was when I ‘invested’

[fish]

Disappointing year for GNE shareholders, myself included. Sometimes things overshoot to the downside and opportunity knocks.
Lets get real, most of these things sell for yield and no other reason so lets have a look at the prospective yield at $2.81.
First an overview of the prospective 2022 investment case from the brokers perspective and I note the average target price of $3.09 https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...957/consensus/
I also note the average broker is forecasting 18 cps in dividends https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...57/financials/
Previous dividends have been 80% imputed so that gives a company tax rate = 28% x 0.8 = 22.4% gross up rate for the benefit of imputation credits so gross dividends are
18 / 0.776 = 23.2 cps gross forecast dividend. 23.2 / 281 = 8.25% gross forecast yield for 2022

People use power no matter what the economy is doing so 8.25% for a fairly safe utility seems pretty attractive to me so I will HOLD and hope the recent correction is overdone.

If the correction continues $2.58 would give a prospective gross yield of 9%... Hmmm...I think I'd go seriously overweight at that level.

I do not own any GNE (for green reasons-I detest the burning of coal ) .
At the moment spot market prices are near zero-?surplus water .
Will Huntly be generating at a loss?

[Mafman]

Surely any generator is going be worth gold as we "decarbonise". Buying now is like getting in on the ground floor with a 5 year lead time. And Genesis isn't just about Huntly - although Huntly is going to be a critical part of the supply puzzle for many years.