Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

Russia Crisis Military Assessment: Ukraine invasion could happen with less than 12 hours’ notice

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...-hours-notice/

[mcdongle]

Its good to see Europe moving away from America.

[Davexl]

Its good to see Europe moving away from America.

Actually the opposite is happening. Russia's aggression has brought the US and Europe closer together than ever.
Europe can't defend itself anyway, look at Germany, weak. The US remains the backbone of NATO at this time...

[Waltzing]

"Europe can't defend itself anyway"

actually not true.

Russia it appears has limited operational capacity and while it has missiles and lots of tanks it AIR is limited.

Europe is a much bigger place then people realise and once the russian move outside their boarders they would have to Blitz and they dont do Blitz.

They dont have a Walter Model.

There best planner is a conductor in St Petersburg.

[Davexl]

Air superiority is one thing, but don't know how effective that is against Russia's S400 systems.
Might come down to whose EW systems are better.

Sadly - battles appear to be won (if ever that could be said to be 'achieved') by ground forces in the end, with overwhelming numbers from the Russians.

[Waltzing]

Not this time...

and no battles in modern war fare are usually won from the who ever controls the air space ...

Europe at present is weak but that will change now.

The Russian's have woken up Euros the even the FIN's and the SWED's..

Money will now be dumped into euro arms manufactures.

The UK is now joining the new tank project as an observer.

Big money to be made in this sector now defending europe.

NZ needs to up its game or declare its self out of game and just keep its head in the mouth of the tiger..

Maybe buy some more canoes..

NZ policy is now made in other country's..

NZ no longer has an independent policy and never really had one to start with.

[Davexl]

Absolutely agree with you on NZ's policy being made elsewhere, NZ dropped the ball 40 years ago, particularly on Defence matters.
It has trouble maintaining manpower to run its 2 lousy frigates, let alone no air-force with strike capability - you're dead right Waltzing. People are leaving the army in droves also, they still think in terms of fighting a Vietnam era war...

As for independent policy, on defence we were always a tiny cog in the big US dominated machine (as is Aussie). Never independent or Neutral (that would cost 5 times as much at least!)

however...

To understand Putin's aim in Ukraine, look at this US base in Poland - NYT (via NZ Herald, good article)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/to-...HLZ52ZKZCWD6A/

[Bjauck]

Its good to see Europe moving away from America.

It is closer with Trump now out of the White House. They will always have a different perspective. Ukraine is more to Europe as Cuba was to the USA.

[Balance]

It is closer with Trump now out of the White House. They will always have a different perspective. Ukraine is more to Europe as Cuba was to the USA.

You mean Ukraine is more to Russia as Cuba was to the USA from a threat point of view?

[Bjauck]

You mean Ukraine is more to Russia as Cuba was to the USA from a threat point of view?

No, I mean what I wrote