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16-03-2022, 01:04 PM
#10501
Originally Posted by Beagle
Lowest consumer confidence since records began in this survey including at any time during the GFC file:///C:/Users/user/Downloads/ANZ-ConsumerConfidence-20220304%20(1).pdf
A lead indicator that people will be pulling their heads in on discretionary spending in a big way.
Just as well we're all immune for this because we all have plenty
Not just consumers beagle --- farmers feeling really down as well
Farm confidence hits lowest point in decades: Federated Farmers
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/far...erated-farmers
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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16-03-2022, 01:41 PM
#10502
I was a farmer for 30 years and I was always surprised by the amount of needless negativity the majority could come up with especially in the good times. Oddly stoic in the bad times. I always presumed it was the influence of the previous generation who grew up post WW2 but I didn't find the people I grew up with in the city to be like that.
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16-03-2022, 01:42 PM
#10503
So to sum it all up, the farmers need a good kick in the nads to be happy, lets ban irrigation for pasture growth and stop the use of N outside of cropping and seeds. Do ourselves a collective favor for the future.
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16-03-2022, 02:18 PM
#10504
Everybody moaning and groaning ….but the country continues to live beyond its means
From Westpac - New Zealand's annual current account deficit widened to 5.8% of GDP in December, compared to 4.6% in September. Today's result was wider than our own and the market's forecast
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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16-03-2022, 02:20 PM
#10505
Record 24 Covid-related deaths
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-...QOTQDGGCDHUAY/
Among the 24 deaths reported today were eight people who died at aged residential care facilities
well really taking off now , wait till the borders open.
that confidence index is going down
NZ posts a record $20 billion annual current account deficit
Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen said the deficit was more evidence the country was at the tail-end of an economic cycle
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128...ccount-deficit
Last edited by bull....; 16-03-2022 at 02:28 PM.
one step ahead of the herd
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16-03-2022, 02:47 PM
#10506
Originally Posted by bull....
Record 24 Covid-related deaths
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-...QOTQDGGCDHUAY/
Among the 24 deaths reported today were eight people who died at aged residential care facilities
well really taking off now , wait till the borders open.
that confidence index is going down
This must be one of your darker days, isn't it? People are optimistic, and optimism is for you what a red cloth is for any bull.
Have a look at all other countries who passed the Omicron peak already ... deaths tend to peak roughly 4 weeks after the peak of new infections. We know that and follow the well known trend, just that our death rates are ways lower than in most other countries. Nothing to see or worry here.
And your reference to opening the borders is laughable. Typically around ten cases per day who get caught in the test at the border anyway ... which means at worst a single figure of additional cases per day slipping through the border. This will make all the difference, given that we breed 20k cases per day by ourselves, won't it?
I guess considering worst case scenarios might have some merits (even if its not healthy if its the only thing people do ...), but making things up just in order to frighten people which don't make any sense at all?
I think you urgently need some balance. I do worry for you.
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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16-03-2022, 03:07 PM
#10507
Originally Posted by winner69
Everybody moaning and groaning ….but the country continues to live beyond its means
From Westpac - New Zealand's annual current account deficit widened to 5.8% of GDP in December, compared to 4.6% in September. Today's result was wider than our own and the market's forecast
But this supposed to be dreadful news could hardly dent NZD ...it need to fall to balance the economy towards more exports then just plain consumption as we all survived Covid ...Next few months are crucial from many angles ...But I reckon NZD will help rebalance the economy ...it always picks up the slack ...60 cents on cards
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16-03-2022, 08:13 PM
#10508
Bottom is in according to a friend who's right half the time
Reduced some of my gold and energy stocks today.
Green mkts everywhere,some chinese
companies, tencent ,Alibaba up re 25%
Tech rebounding
Assumptions the Ukraine war is nearly over,Zelensky says joining Nato not an option
World is opening back up from Covid
But the Fed reports and raises int rates Thursday,how hawkish?
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17-03-2022, 08:07 AM
#10509
Fed has 0.25% point increase
They about as wimpish as our RBNZ
Orr will follow suit no doubt …no 0.5% for him
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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17-03-2022, 08:52 AM
#10510
Originally Posted by winner69
Fed has 0.25% point increase
They about as wimpish as our RBNZ
Orr will follow suit no doubt …no 0.5% for him
Its simple in their minds ...Inflation is lesser evil then Recession ...So it will be slow up only and smaller top only then what markets have already priced in...
Bottom is in ...slow grind up ahead ....provided we actually dont end up in recession ...IMO FED and other central banks will try their best to avoid that by tolerating inflation little more then required
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