Geo Political Risk

[GTM 3442]

I am not sure what the terms of NATO actually entail, but wouldn't a Russian government ordered hostile cyber attack affecting the infrastructure of a NATO member (USA, UK and Canada are all members) trigger the mutual defence obligations? NATO countries could then send their airforces to Ukraine, as a confrontation against them would have been already triggered by Putin's Russia.

As I understand it, (and I may well be wrong) the criteria are around "equivalence to a physical attack". However a major issue is likely to be that of attribution, which will be really tricky

[Davexl]

I am surprised (or should I be?), that "be kind" Ardern even has to think about this.... (Kris Faafoi is only allowed to do what she allows)

She is a strange little woke communist.... Is she dangerous? Just not sure....

I look to her upbringing on a dairy farm in Morrinsville, hinting at conservative, christian values, though agnostic, proud of her relatives' defence service among other things, but she ended up on the left, people person, social justice etc. Not a communist at all

I think she is fast realising just how dangerous China's achievement in corrupting the Solomon Islands government really is, and the logical outcome of that would be an increase in Defence spending. Meantime she is walking a very thin line on our trade-exposed dependency with China and may have been 'got to' by China to create this precedent and send the person back. Either that or our courts are hopelessly woke and naive and too stupid to factor the geopolitical risk this precedent creates.

Kris Faafoi is the fail-safe to the court system and will hopefully make the right decision. Time will tell...

[Waltzing]

Are russia's new missiles really hypersonic or just hype?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gf9dQaN74y0

https://cepa.org/russias-military-fa...awesome-scale/

[Davexl]

Are russia's new missiles really hypersonic or just hype?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gf9dQaN74y0

https://cepa.org/russias-military-fa...awesome-scale/

CSIS is a reputable site...

On March 19, 2022, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed it had fired a Kinzhal missile at a munitions depot around the town of Deliatyn in southwestern Ukraine. This marks the first known use of the weapon in combat.¹⁵ The United States was able to track the missile “in real-time” during its flight, according to CNN citing U.S. government officials.¹⁶

Browse thru the footnotes eg FN 16 on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1505200842785316&t=dEb78QethQ3LIBJ107iZsA

https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/kinzhal/

[BDL]

I look to her upbringing on a dairy farm in Morrinsville, hinting at conservative, christian values, though agnostic, proud of her relatives' defence service among other things, but she ended up on the left, people person, social justice etc. Not a communist at all

I think she is fast realising just how dangerous China's achievement in corrupting the Solomon Islands government really is, and the logical outcome of that would be an increase in Defence spending. Meantime she is walking a very thin line on our trade-exposed dependency with China and may have been 'got to' by China to create this precedent and send the person back. Either that or our courts are hopelessly woke and naive and too stupid to factor the geopolitical risk this precedent creates.

Kris Faafoi is the fail-safe to the court system and will hopefully make the right decision. Time will tell...

In 2008, Ardern was elected president of the International Union of Socialist Youth.

Ardern was raised as a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in New Zealand, Ardern left the church in 2005 at age 25. Some of her close and extended family are high ranking Mormons.
Did she just leave because it might hinder her politically?


There could be much more to this woman than meets the eye......

[Bjauck]

Interesting thought - I'm not sure cyber attacks have ever been validated as an 'attack' by NATO. Perhaps depends on how severe it is. It certainly preceeded the 'kinetic' attack by Russia into Ukraine. But we won't perhaps know until a full-scale cyber attack on NATO occurs. The lines blur a bit also between the demarcations between cyber attack and electronic warfare attacks also. The taking out of military satellites would be kinetic and might qualify, but their disabling by cyber attack might not?

Some cyber attacks can have intended kinetic consequences with a direct causative link. For example if a country's traffic management system was cyber-compromised this could result in almost immediate collisions.

[Panda-NZ-]

The United States was able to track the missile “in real-time” during its flight, according to CNN citing U.S. government officials.¹⁶

A shame they spend on all this crap rather than improving russia.

That would be a real legacy rather than having a second rate "empire" maintained through force.

[moka]

In 2008, Ardern was elected president of the International Union of Socialist Youth.

Ardern was raised as a member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in New Zealand, Ardern left the church in 2005 at age 25. Some of her close and extended family are high ranking Mormons.
Did she just leave because it might hinder her politically?


There could be much more to this woman than meets the eye......

There is much more to Ardern than meets the eye, her leadership ability, her networking skills and her willingness to get very involved in politics at a young age.
Ardern was the international secretary of Young Labour. Every Young Labour party in the world is a member of the International Union of Socialist Youth. Ardern first served as the president of the Asia Pacific region and attended conferences around the world, and she became president of IUYS in 2008.

Youth Labour had spent years supporting LGBTQIA+ rights. Ardern’s beliefs around LGBTQIA+ never aligned with the church whose stance was and is firmly anti, and that was the catalyst for leaving the church when the Civil Union Act 2004 was passed and the church was vocally against the bill.

[moka]

Putin invaded Ukraine violating international law. This article has a list of other historical violations by the Soviet Union and Russia. And there is a longer list of violations by US, Israel and other western nations in Syria, Iran, Guatemala. Vietnam, Egypt, The Congo, The Dominican Republic, Brazil, Chile, Lebanon, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya.

https://ejmagnier.com/2022/04/18/what-gives-russia-the-right-to-occupy-ukraine-or-any-other-country/

“In 1965, following the end of World War II, the United Nations Assembly, Resolution 2131, affirmed the inadmissibility of interference in the internal affairs of states. The principle of non-interference implies the right of every sovereign State to manage its affairs without external interference of any kind or apparent or hidden form.

The Security Council has never approved the US invasions of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria.

A historical “database” tracks the United States meddling in foreign elections over the years. The documents indicate that the US intervened 80 times between 1963 and 2000. At the same time, the Soviet Union and Russia used about 36 documented interventions in the same period.”

[Davexl]

Putin invaded Ukraine violating international law. This article has a list of other historical violations by the Soviet Union and Russia. And there is a longer list of violations by US, Israel and other western nations in Syria, Iran, Guatemala. Vietnam, Egypt, The Congo, The Dominican Republic, Brazil, Chile, Lebanon, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya.

https://ejmagnier.com/2022/04/18/what-gives-russia-the-right-to-occupy-ukraine-or-any-other-country/

“In 1965, following the end of World War II, the United Nations Assembly, Resolution 2131, affirmed the inadmissibility of interference in the internal affairs of states. The principle of non-interference implies the right of every sovereign State to manage its affairs without external interference of any kind or apparent or hidden form.

The Security Council has never approved the US invasions of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria.

A historical “database” tracks the United States meddling in foreign elections over the years. The documents indicate that the US intervened 80 times between 1963 and 2000. At the same time, the Soviet Union and Russia used about 36 documented interventions in the same period.”

Much more balanced Moka. Now instead of just counting the number of interventions (at face value), hopefully not from your "database" from "Leftypedia" or similarly biased sources - begin looking into the reasons for these interventions. Often there will be humanitarian reasons for these interventions among other things, it's not just about oil. eg Syria.

eg Should we merely let China commit genocide with the Uighurs, reverse the 50 year agreement for free association for Hong Kong and turn a blind eye to its human rights abuses because that would be "interference in its internal affairs", or should we intervene on Human Rights grounds and attempt to raise it as an issue thru the UN? What about veto rights on the Security Council, what do we do then - ignore it?

I would argue that Western liberal values driven by the US in particular has been the greatest force for good for the planet over the last 70 years in particular by maintaining the international Rules Based Order and suppressing WW-III, so far...
And that's a pretty good start, with the rest being proxy wars between the West and Russia / China.