OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[justakiwi]

.....................

[SailorRob]

ST really needs a "puke" emoticon.

You loaded up at $1.50?

Damn.

[SailorRob]

ST really needs a "puke" emoticon.

Nothing vomit inducing about recognising and giving credit to great analysis and foresight. You may however feel sick for not having taken it on board.

[bull....]

lets get this right again it was only bull who said

1 before 2

everyone else was saying 2

[Beagle]

Going back 5 years is always enlightening.

Here are a few comments Beagle made in March 2017 just prior to IPO. Hope Beagle doesn't mind me quoting him from back then)

• Not too keen onthe care bed focus. Very little money to be made in that sector
• Very unlikely I will participate based on what I have heard of their top heavy management structure.
• Hmmmm, if it were not for gains on revaluation of properties (IFRS) they would have lost ($13m) in 2016, an improvement from losing ($23m) from operations in 2015. Talk of big growth by promotors does not impress me. Track record to date is well below par.
• You cannot list on fancy pants multiples because of tailwinds in the sector unless you have a decent track record wherein you've proved your development model
• Promotors promises of future growth when prior growth has been very modest always worry me, Tegal the last example of a float choc-a-bloc full of corporate spin.
• After reviewing their previous year's financial performance already. Lets be honest, promotors can forecast anything they like, (Tegal anyone ?), but their historical financial performance speaks for itself and it isn't flash on an underlying basis.

Even percy said it was 'mutton dressed up as lamb' lol

Seems no money in care beds, high cist structure, no growth, losses if you take fair value gins etc etc etc still persist and punters still live with their promises that things are on track to riches.

So from 79 cents at IPO to 97 cents could be called a success - 4% pa plus divies to keep you interested not too bad

One thing its better than that that My Food Bag IPO

Not a great story but just like My Food Bag things are going OK (operationally) at the moment so no worries

Regret's...I certainly have a few. At first I was a little bit miffed to be stirred from my lengthy slumber in my kennel today but its certainly given me more clarity as its actually really useful for you to post my pre-IPO thoughts because to be honest I'd forgotten how many reservations I had right from the outset. Somewhere along the way I lost my way and allowed myself to get sucked into the hype / vortex or was it the charm of Earl and his presentation at the Auckland shareholders association meeting years ago ?, or maybe a combination of all of these things ?... not really sure what it was but I made the mistake of thinking a new experimental business plan of trying to make serious money out of care might prove more profitable than the well proven independent living focused business plan of the likes of SUM. I should of known that no matter how you slice and dice it there's very little money in care.

I think its perfectly clear that SUM's very well proven business model is far superior and its fanciful to suggest this will ever trade on the same metrics as a company that has proven they can grow earnings in such an impressive way as SUM, 10 year CAGR of 33% speaks for itself. Is there any other company on the NZX that comes close to that ? The only question left for me to address is when is the right time to fix my mistake and get out of this and back into SUM ? The share price is currently so weak I don't think this is the right time...or maybe the sooner the better...I really don't know.

[Beagle]

[justakiwi]

I have deleted my post, not because of the neg rep I received, but because it was out of line and I own my mistakes/errors of judgement.

[Bjauck]

You loaded up at $1.50?
Damn.

I added to my holding at almost that price too....not a big proportion extra but followed a broker recommendation without much extra research....! Also back in 2021 I got a DRiP allotment at $1.533/share.

[Bjauck]

I have deleted my post, not because of the neg rep I received, but because it was out of line and I own my mistakes/errors of judgement.

I have made plenty of errors of judgment. I imagine most investors have made decisions they regret too!

[ralph]

I have made plenty of errors of judgment. I imagine most investors have made decisions they regret too!

To true I also added some more as the knife fell !!!